tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post3116658030318202310..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Why cannot other European countries show this courage?Mainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-58290314432569613022012-06-13T03:10:03.584+00:002012-06-13T03:10:03.584+00:00The basic question; can countries like the US, Jap...The basic question; can countries like the US, Japan and EU, able to pay their debt? how can they, if they have a 3% allowable yearly deficit?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-6576142919428979562012-06-10T19:48:56.316+00:002012-06-10T19:48:56.316+00:00But why not to aim to produce as much as they are ...But why not to aim to produce as much as they are able to produce? <br /><br />Existence of output gap is evidence that these countries are not producing to their fullest potential.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-24946084963375957902012-06-08T21:49:45.024+00:002012-06-08T21:49:45.024+00:00The point is the troubled countries had a bubble, ...The point is the troubled countries had a bubble, why do some want to reflate the bubble, if this is possible at all?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-37821993423989216062012-06-08T21:19:33.111+00:002012-06-08T21:19:33.111+00:00"But long term Latvia is still showing econom..."But long term Latvia is still showing economic growth."<br /><br />Most countries, maybe apart from Italy, Japan en Portugal, are still showing longterm economic growth. I don't understand why this is supposed to make Latvia look better.Jannoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-958815782507767522012-06-08T19:22:22.137+00:002012-06-08T19:22:22.137+00:00some numbers for Latvia
http://www.tradingeconomic...some numbers for Latvia<br />http://www.tradingeconomics.com/latvia/gdp<br />http://www.tradingeconomics.com/latvia/gdp-growth<br />select the period late nineties until now, take out the bubble in 2008, and the numbers are not bad at all.<br />It seems to me that some economists are making the mistake that what they call the depressed economies should return to their bubble peaks in 2008/9 with lots of stimulus. This seems unrealistic to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-41173321258635216922012-06-08T19:11:06.846+00:002012-06-08T19:11:06.846+00:00before the bubble (like early 2000s) the unemploym...before the bubble (like early 2000s) the unemployment was close to 15% as well in Latvia.<br />Same for Spain: always had unemployment above 20%, until the bubble during the euro era started (and they let in millions of immigrants, making the current unemployment number even higher than what they used to have).<br />All that happened after the bubble bursted in those bubble countries is that they went back to their ''normal'' rates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-47400252515151589482012-06-08T16:12:45.699+00:002012-06-08T16:12:45.699+00:00" By this logic, an even better strategy is t..." By this logic, an even better strategy is to close the whole economy down for a year. The following year we could get fantastic growth as the economy starts up again." I think these are some of my favorite words ever written. Also visiting from Krugman's blog.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12985315789982965116noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76320605691967662012012-06-08T15:40:57.000+00:002012-06-08T15:40:57.000+00:00Wow! I just found this blog (was directed here fro...Wow! I just found this blog (was directed here from Krugman's blog). I was studied economics as an undergrad and am still a macro junkie. This site looks really interesting and informative. Great analysis of Latvia.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-3732548008647240992012-06-08T14:00:57.803+00:002012-06-08T14:00:57.803+00:00The key is to look at measures of output relative ...The key is to look at measures of output relative to potential, which is why the unemployment number is important. 15% must be well above the natural rate, and that is despite a large number of people leaving the country to find work. The estimates I can find of the output gap also suggest GDP is still well below potential.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-36531832625335211202012-06-08T13:33:49.785+00:002012-06-08T13:33:49.785+00:00just mentioning 2008-2011 for GDP distorts the pic...just mentioning 2008-2011 for GDP distorts the picture, you should look at the long term trend of GDP growth for Latvia. In years around 2008 they had a huge bubble, no wonder they plunged. But long term Latvia is still showing economic growth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-27874862448303532672012-06-07T09:47:55.268+00:002012-06-07T09:47:55.268+00:00Both nominal and real Latvian GDP are miles from t...Both nominal and real Latvian GDP are miles from their pre-crisis peak.<br /><br />http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseChart.do?sk=119.ESA.Q.LV.Y.0000.B1QG00.1000.TTTT.L.N.A&node=SEARCHRESULTS&q=latvia+gross+domestic+product+&type=series&trans=N<br /><br />http://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/browseChart.do?sk=119.ESA.A.LV.N.0000.B1QG00.1000.TTTT.V.U.A&node=SEARCHRESULTS&q=latvia+gross+domestic+product+&type=series&trans=N<br /><br />Where is the recovery? If you wanted a perfect example of a unit-root type drop in output, where losses are frozen in, this is most definitely one such example.<br /><br />Sweden and Israel are two examples of countries I've seen that have recovered from the crisis reasonably well. Some suspect this is due to implicit NGDP targeting.Tom Walshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02143064677765352629noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-26677621377650368862012-06-07T09:46:42.088+00:002012-06-07T09:46:42.088+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Tom Walshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02143064677765352629noreply@blogger.com