tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post2388559577829587266..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Brexiteers versus Economists one year onMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger13125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-27626479444397968242017-07-08T15:28:54.849+00:002017-07-08T15:28:54.849+00:00Funny, there were plenty of articles hailing a cri...Funny, there were plenty of articles hailing a crisis in confidence in economists - when very little happened after Brexit. You, however, seem to have missed those articles ... preferring to create your own bubble of "reality" on your blog.JGreen2017https://www.blogger.com/profile/06442468408743597185noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-88223518516636155742017-07-04T23:16:12.723+00:002017-07-04T23:16:12.723+00:00"Good gdp growth, record employment, end of t..."Good gdp growth, record employment, end of the Dutch decease for the pound with record export orders. Inflation at healthy levels"<br /><br />GDP growth has markedly slowed. Record employment isn't a wonder given record population. The pound's decline hurts incomes at a time when income growth rather than employment gains are needed. Inflation is outpacing wages again - hardly healthy.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-55578605290754958732017-07-04T23:05:42.689+00:002017-07-04T23:05:42.689+00:00Nobody said GDP growth would be 3-6% lower the day...Nobody said GDP growth would be 3-6% lower the day after a Leave win. <br /><br />Moreover, Cameron had indicated that Article 50 would be triggered without delay after a Leave win, so economic forecasts should be seen in that context. In the event, triggering Article 50 was delayed for nine months. Is it any wonder the slowdown that is now underway was not averted but simply delayed?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-78408514526997110452017-06-29T17:17:30.829+00:002017-06-29T17:17:30.829+00:00I distinctly recall the august Remain economists s...I distinctly recall the august Remain economists specifically predicting an "immediate and profound economic shock" with a decrease in GDP growth "3-6% lower" the "day after the referendum".<br /><br />This simply did not happen. No amount of hand washing can get around this. You cannot then say "oh but consumers dipped into their pockets" or "Carney started the printing presses and rescued us all".<br /><br />The reason why you cannot say this is because economic forecasts do not assume a "do nothing" scenario of the Bank of England, or consumers. Everybody is expected to act rationally.<br /><br />This was not a point for economists, and you are disingenuous to suggest that it is. The economists were profoundly wrong, in an absolutely outstanding way that totally contrasted with reality, obliterated any shred of credibility for the profession and absolutely further entrenched the total distrust that the voter has in the ability for economists to act in anything more than a totally useless way in guiding their decision making.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-5889693886118681922017-06-29T07:19:06.819+00:002017-06-29T07:19:06.819+00:00A friend who prefers to remain anonymous has put u...A friend who prefers to remain anonymous has put up a blog dedicated to (the absurdity of) Brexit (from a political & philosophical point of view). I thought you and some of your readers might be interested:<br /><br />http://www.thebrexitsatires.com/Oliver Daveyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09960924207469377279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-82870728126876936192017-06-27T17:09:41.566+00:002017-06-27T17:09:41.566+00:00After a series of excellent posts on macro, anothe...After a series of excellent posts on macro, another terrible Brexit one. 5-0?!?!? Good gdp growth, record employment, end of the Dutch decease for the pound with record export orders. Inflation at healthy levels (see your own recent entry). Result: hard brexit parties got 85%. Remoaners loose their seats (Nick Clegg) and Brexiteers increase majorities (Vauxhall). Even Paul Mason says that if you are a remainer you need a new party. Changing the sport analogy: It's game, set and match for the Brexiteers. Move on. Everybody else already did.Riverhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03952784965398939121noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-53318966164396232772017-06-26T13:58:31.018+00:002017-06-26T13:58:31.018+00:00Well done match commentary. If only there were a &...Well done match commentary. If only there were a 'mercy rule'tjell20https://www.blogger.com/profile/10546306228630979507noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-62432807049739928292017-06-26T10:06:55.374+00:002017-06-26T10:06:55.374+00:00"With the Brexiteers now 5:0 down"...
S..."With the Brexiteers now 5:0 down"...<br /><br />Shouldn't that be 6-0 if the disallowed goal for invoking Article 50 is now allowed due to: "It was now clear the Economists had been right, and starting the Article 50 process had been a huge mistake"...?<br /><br />I guess not as once a goal is disallowed it shall not be re-allowed (still smarting from Euro 2004 and World Cup 2010 !)<br /><br /><br />Alexhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00914448231993504009noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39026166231985083792017-06-25T08:25:18.383+00:002017-06-25T08:25:18.383+00:00Corbyn still has room to go for a second referendu...Corbyn still has room to go for a second referendum, given that what his young voters support.<br /><br />N.B. Young voters today it seems means under fifty!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-72443045901531100372017-06-24T21:10:03.231+00:002017-06-24T21:10:03.231+00:00Nonsense. You know very well that Rochon, Keen, Mi...Nonsense. You know very well that Rochon, Keen, Mitchell, Fazi and many others were pro Brexit, all economists of some sort, professors, all of them were wrong. Who was it who called the Brexit a victory for the working class? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-77657855421184242892017-06-24T14:40:43.675+00:002017-06-24T14:40:43.675+00:00In my view the economic issues have always been pr...In my view the economic issues have always been pretty clear and are as you have stated them. But you seem to persist in drawing the line at that whereas for many who voted Leave it was (and is) a much more widely drawn issue - the other issues are well known.<br /><br />In my case what also weighed heavily was the risk within the EZ which would ultimately bring down the whole structure. I have never believed that the EZ can work in anything like its present form but that the necessary conditions for its sustainability are not only absent but probably politically impossible. If the EZ fails then so will the EU. I don't think this is a probability at the moment but it certainly a distinct possibility and one that I fervently hope does not come to pass for either our sake or Europe.<br /><br />This is not a football match but a rather much longer game and it will be likely forty years before we will see the result of the decision in its historical and economic perspective.Robert Joneshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03593742130088640939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-70442686157885371972017-06-24T11:40:52.175+00:002017-06-24T11:40:52.175+00:00The public spent more than they possibly should ha...The public spent more than they possibly should have? Just as they've done for many, many years? Yes, that possibility was completely unforeseeable wasn't it? I can see why it didn't occur to economists predicting instadoom! <br /><br />Your post helps to bolster Pettifor's case that economics is in urgent need of reform. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42552438146485654982017-06-24T11:36:15.459+00:002017-06-24T11:36:15.459+00:00Anti Brexit nonsense again. I am astonished how we...Anti Brexit nonsense again. I am astonished how well the economy has held up in the face of constant MSM negative and hostile articles about Brexit. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com