tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post2492069658311362272..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Little EnglandersMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger44125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39746604706335038792016-11-02T21:35:50.271+00:002016-11-02T21:35:50.271+00:00*Fewer jobs. *Fewer jobs. Weazhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11932807530534924372noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-41465033043751141062016-10-10T20:08:49.986+00:002016-10-10T20:08:49.986+00:00Paradoxically though Brexit voters will suffer mos...Paradoxically though Brexit voters will suffer most from higher import prices hitting their wages, companies leaving Britain back to EU to avoid tariffs of hard Brexit, talented academics, skilled migrants, researchers, technologists and companies not choosing the Brexit UK, so less jobs, less growth, less tax revenue from a declining population , smaller national cake. Peter Carabinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18400411630743291924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-17360245421542718342016-10-10T19:54:47.616+00:002016-10-10T19:54:47.616+00:00There is no centre left force ready to defend the ...There is no centre left force ready to defend the 16 million remainders. We need an alliance of the great and the good from Labour or not and those who would support this cause like the Lib Dems. Donors would easily appear meanwhile Corbyn for multiple reasons cannot do this nor his unpopular hard left supporters. We need an opposition that could step around Corbyn and defend our nation at this time of Hard Brexit hegemony and they do not need to be all MPs. <br />Peter Carabinehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18400411630743291924noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-29989566295467316592016-10-09T13:26:17.624+00:002016-10-09T13:26:17.624+00:00"the UK government had had to turn to the IMF..."the UK government had had to turn to the IMF for a bailout. Maybe the UK government is trying to return to those glory days?"<br /><br />No it didn't. The problem was ppl not understanding fixed exchange rates had ended and how that changed things. Please read:<br />http://www.3spoken.co.uk/2013/03/uk-borrowed-foreign-currency-from-imf.html?m=1<br /><br />"an IMF bailout would be a godsend"<br /><br />WTF is wrong with you people?Randomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04445772572707818311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-47842795705307774762016-10-09T09:08:41.789+00:002016-10-09T09:08:41.789+00:00Whatever it is, it isn't macroeconomics.Whatever it is, it isn't macroeconomics.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-51800910813982003902016-10-09T09:06:34.774+00:002016-10-09T09:06:34.774+00:00Prof. Wren-Lewis,
You should start a new blog: &q...Prof. Wren-Lewis,<br /><br />You should start a new blog: "Mainly Labour".<br /><br />And then stick to it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-1445513082388889212016-10-08T18:26:45.717+00:002016-10-08T18:26:45.717+00:00"phase out foreign doctors, cut down on the n..."phase out foreign doctors, cut down on the numbers of foreign students, put landlords in jail for not checking their tenants' residency papers and 'name and shame' companies for hiring foreign workers.”<br /><br />Mixed bag then.<br /><br />Well I don't see much wrong with targeting immigration law at employers/landlords. And the phase out of stealing foreign doctors is sensible - as long as we train enough people here. Those places we steal them from have much worse health outcomes. Cutting down on foreign students is questionable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43053185522075889292016-10-08T13:43:58.351+00:002016-10-08T13:43:58.351+00:00Schäuble is clearly a madman: Believe it or not, h...Schäuble is clearly a madman: Believe it or not, he refuses to give away German taxpayers' money!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-52031423753947881032016-10-08T07:08:09.083+00:002016-10-08T07:08:09.083+00:00The report you link to says nothing about hours wo...The report you link to says nothing about hours worked.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-10538326186565955922016-10-08T01:33:41.464+00:002016-10-08T01:33:41.464+00:00Strange comment, Ralph. Is it somehow supposed to ...Strange comment, Ralph. Is it somehow supposed to undermine that many migrants work hard and contribute to this country?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-67998541716834363442016-10-07T22:13:02.445+00:002016-10-07T22:13:02.445+00:00Dear, Anonymous. There is a lot of anger about how...Dear, Anonymous. There is a lot of anger about how Britain has changed since 2008 or 2010(?). This relates to, but is not confined to, insecure employment, pay, conditions, lack of affordable housing, cuts to benefits, effective cuts to the health service and many other issues. The role of our media and the Conservatives is to misdirect that anger toward immigration as their cause. <br />People wait to see a doctor and observe 'migrants' in the queue and make the link I'm having to wait/not getting treatment because of the migrants adding to the queue. The same applies to affordable housing, and through a perceived increased supply of labour jobs and conditions. This is experience based prejudice, in that the collection of experience is both open to observer bias and its analysis centred on false premises. <br />Once the austerity line was sold by those who had, to a considerable degree, benefitted/caused the financial collapse, and this was not challenged by Conservatives and, the pre-Corbyn Labour party, people stopped looking at the why and if, and concentrated on the who. That is the who is to pay/suffer the consequences of austerity. Many years later, after the why and if were sufficiently distant to hinder the rewriting of history, the Tories and media have put in the narrative that it's all (or, at least, that no other cause need be mentioned and considered) the fault of immigration. Now, most people know that's not so, however, the question and answer are not put out in so plain a juxtaposition it's mostly unstated assumptions. It's presented as these people are causing shortages. <br />Quite how the Labour party did not grasp the consequences of its acceptance of the false premise that the world went into a financial crisis because it spent too much, and/or taxed too little, may turn out the most significant political errors of the 21st century. Indeed, millions are suffering from its dereliction of duty. <br />shaunt Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-77925978155135447852016-10-07T21:24:00.460+00:002016-10-07T21:24:00.460+00:00May’s adoption of the ‘Dad’s Army’ view opens a sp...May’s adoption of the ‘Dad’s Army’ view opens a space for Labour to move into as the party of progressive modernity, engaging positively with the world but managing change (not just socio-economic but also technological and environmental) to realise the opportunities and control the risks. This space is large enough for Labour to win the next election. <br /><br />“Vote Labour: Invest in a Brighter Future.”Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10623963884259918737noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-91628364582689632962016-10-07T16:27:59.177+00:002016-10-07T16:27:59.177+00:00Are you saying that native British are layabouts? ...Are you saying that native British are layabouts? Bob Appleyardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10367835188049717689noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-7961286503375708292016-10-07T15:29:53.629+00:002016-10-07T15:29:53.629+00:00At this point, an IMF bailout would be a godsendAt this point, an IMF bailout would be a godsendThe Fire Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15374464345849156299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-46815732091656610082016-10-07T15:29:28.422+00:002016-10-07T15:29:28.422+00:00Well. Depends on what the economic research says. ...Well. Depends on what the economic research says. We don't know what Brexit it so its not prudent (right now) to commission research on whether or not Scottish Independence in the EU is the best. (although, I think the answer is very, very obvious.) I also think the EU knows an Independent Scotland *could)* in its interests because it is the perfect punishment for the UK and shows the EU is popular when it stands up for its values. The Fire Manhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15374464345849156299noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-12537459342617723312016-10-07T12:42:38.827+00:002016-10-07T12:42:38.827+00:00Like US, like UK, like Australia, like Canada. The...Like US, like UK, like Australia, like Canada. The anglophone 'right' (conservatives they are not) are prisoners of the same dynamic. To govern in the interests of an ever decreasing top wealth percentile, they must persuade an ever increasing number to vote against their economic interests. Religious bigotry, xenophobia and racism are the obvious ways to attract the necessarily irrational votes against self-interest.<br /><br /><br />Alphonsehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02441923856941011283noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-61535835441235445342016-10-07T11:21:16.613+00:002016-10-07T11:21:16.613+00:00https://thefifthwave.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/brie...https://thefifthwave.wordpress.com/2016/06/28/brief-reflections-on-the-brexit-vote/<br />...<br />"Caught in the grip of a glacial established order, ruled by elites who appear to offer few alternatives, the British public opted to break some crockery."<br />...<br />"The higher meaning of Brexit is as indicator of a great secular reversal. The institutions that bind the world together have entered a process of retreat and disintegration."<br />...Doc at the Radar Stationnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-50097063755106523112016-10-07T11:20:28.899+00:002016-10-07T11:20:28.899+00:00Ralph, unless I have misread it the study you link...Ralph, unless I have misread it the study you link to does not mention hours worked per week. So rather than be snide about what you'd expect an Oxford professor to do, you could start by practising what you preach.Peter Walshhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09569161479356703167noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32763428771226313382016-10-07T11:09:13.750+00:002016-10-07T11:09:13.750+00:00I don't see why we can't celebrate and che...I don't see why we can't celebrate and cherish everyone living in the UK (whether they immigrated yesterday or are native) whilst at the same time acknowledging that dependency on net immigration isn't sustainable. I'd have more acceptance of your argument if I found a coherant rebutal of this:- http://cis.org/immigration-and-the-american-worker-review-academic-literature IMO the test of whether immigration is "good" is whether the immigrant would have still wanted to come had they been a citizen of a more affluent country (eg say Japan or Germany or USA etc). If yes, then they are probably wanting to come here as part of a wholy beneficial exchange of expertise or for personal or family reasons. If no, then I worry that such immigration is just people being herded around by global financial distortions and is fairly destructive. Over and above that, I do think we have a duty to provide refuge for persecuted people (in the way we did with the Ugandan Asians in 1972) -but we mustn't conflate that with the debate over using mass economic migration as a way to avoid businesses needing to train workers and offer decent pay and conditions.stonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16420341212847543229noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43993394878416023442016-10-07T10:58:04.564+00:002016-10-07T10:58:04.564+00:00Dear Professor,
I follow your blog. Although I h...Dear Professor,<br /><br />I follow your blog. Although I have a MA in economics, reading your stuff continues to keep me humble and mindful of my own intellectual short comings. <br /><br />I have got a model of exchange rates which have proved useful is assessing that sterling has historically been too high over many years. I came across your 2003 note on sterling last night and wonder if you have an update as your numbers form 2003 correspond with my own estimates of fair value. I am merely trying to sense check my own model which pencils in a fair value of sterling of €1.23 and $1.31. Of note however is the tensions within the Euro as the fair value of sterling vs the old Deutschemark implies a €1 fairvalue. i.e. the non-DEM Euro is overvalued by at least 20% against the DEM.<br /><br />It may make a different subject for your blog from the political economy as well as providing grounds for hope for an export led recovery which combined with fiscal spending from Hammond may begin a more virtuous state of affairs for the UK economy.<br /><br />I thank you for your writings and insights.<br /><br />Kind regards<br />Gerard Gerard.lane@artorius.com<br /><br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-57698122560758411122016-10-07T10:16:56.380+00:002016-10-07T10:16:56.380+00:00Thank you Rupert.Thank you Rupert.reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-61375627969129857162016-10-07T10:14:09.478+00:002016-10-07T10:14:09.478+00:00Hope so - for very selfish reasons. (I'm an Au...Hope so - for very selfish reasons. (I'm an Aussie living in Germany with a Scottish grandfather. I might have a good chance of getting an EU second passport.)reasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06594313655855683716noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-36016569852097393852016-10-07T08:30:49.197+00:002016-10-07T08:30:49.197+00:00PJ Harvey! Never thought I'd see the day. I st...PJ Harvey! Never thought I'd see the day. I started reading this blog when it (seemed) to be lots and lots of economics...then more Labour stuff was added...then more British politics...then Brexit...now the best album of the last few years! Unexpected to say the least. I always thought that album did a brilliant job of making me feel 'patriotic' but not in a Ukip way. The closest concept is probably the 'civic nationalism' (ugh) of the SNP/Scots. It's a high point in exploring the relationship you might have with your country. <br /><br />Anyway. Liked the post. May's rhetoric was shameful, but I worry that some arguments really can be lost – and immigration, post Brexit, looks like it really might be close to being lost. Unclear strategically or tactically the best way to fight...Robert McLardy Smithhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10406506932344045894noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-13691143101820037682016-10-07T07:31:10.636+00:002016-10-07T07:31:10.636+00:00Could I suggest a piece of research for Labour Par...Could I suggest a piece of research for Labour Party members who will be doing the door-stepping in the run-up to the next general election? It's this: spend an hour or so on a Saturday morning near the newspaper stand watching out for people who buy "The Sun".<br />These are the people who don't read many politics blogs; they get their politics from their newspaper and these are the people YOU have to persuade to (a) turn out and (b) vote Labour.<br />By the way don't go on a weekday: all you'll see are young mothers and pensioners; you won't see all those who are normally at work. And don't bother with those who buy the "Daily Mail" or the "Daily Express": most of those are a lost cause.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42095404717230893662016-10-07T06:28:59.860+00:002016-10-07T06:28:59.860+00:00Also Simon can you have any sympathy with the Brit...Also Simon can you have any sympathy with the British people wanting to get as far away as possible from a Germany in which the madman Wolfgang Schäuble is the second most popular politician in the country?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com