tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post3292814837516546488..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Breaking up is hard to doMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-55471051467249176952014-02-26T19:08:17.018+00:002014-02-26T19:08:17.018+00:00Claim to retain the pound and print their own mone...Claim to retain the pound and print their own money anyway.<br /><br />Duplicity is the stock in trade of politicians -- why not.Nathanaelnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-6456446039378472082014-02-19T09:58:06.056+00:002014-02-19T09:58:06.056+00:00If Scotland administered its own currency the inte...If Scotland administered its own currency the interest rate on Scottish pound bonds would not be set by the market. The Scottish central bank and/or government would set the risk-free rate itself just as the Fed and the BOE do. If they want higher interest rates they can issue bonds or pay interest on reserves. If they want lower rates they can print money.<br /><br />The government could set the interest rate and budget deficit size at almost any level they want, based on what they think is best for the Scottish economy.Chaznoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-72497025135060893342014-02-14T12:47:58.575+00:002014-02-14T12:47:58.575+00:00Independence itself will add significantly to the ...Independence itself will add significantly to the costs of import export. Unless the scots are proposing the rUK make their immigration policy for them, independence means border checks. The impact of that would be, in my view, much greater than the impact of having a different currency or not, assuming the exchange rate is quite stable.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39263431154999968542014-02-14T12:42:52.400+00:002014-02-14T12:42:52.400+00:00They would have an initial deficit because all wes...They would have an initial deficit because all western countries have deficits. The UK is running a deficit now and will for the forseeable future. Scotland is running a deficit now, according to the Scottish government's own figures. The SNP are proposing to increase spending and cut taxes. There's no way they will be in surplus.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-69322285546282848082014-02-10T10:30:14.795+00:002014-02-10T10:30:14.795+00:00For what it's worth, bookmakers have put the o...For what it's worth, bookmakers have put the odds of a currency union in the event of a yes vote at 1/100.<br /><br />http://www.liveoddsandscores.com/press-releases/512129/scotland-1100-to-enter-currency-union-501-not-toAlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-50364241135141782542014-02-10T09:04:48.787+00:002014-02-10T09:04:48.787+00:00you've certainly come to the right place. Aust...you've certainly come to the right place. Australia offers music lovers and travel-aficionados a yummy taste of musical festivals all year round.<br />For more info visit: <a href="http://www.clubmatestravel.com" rel="nofollow">disabled travel</a>Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05180236306376419010noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-18290657521400733172014-02-09T08:43:53.287+00:002014-02-09T08:43:53.287+00:00Surely the "credit risks" on Scottish de...Surely the "credit risks" on Scottish debt are largely dependent on the oil revenues it can secure. This is the big unknown. I don't think the SNP are interested in a monetary union, it is just there to narrow down the degrees of freedom in an independence scenario; the SNP and the UK government know that in referendum's people tend to vote conservatively.<br /><br />Either way, a currency union without fiscal union could work. Look at the (teflon) euro. It's not the disaster that it is portrayed to be.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-41496850480999893552014-02-09T00:53:33.313+00:002014-02-09T00:53:33.313+00:00Nick: In the first case, why the need for tight co...Nick: In the first case, why the need for tight controls? Because somehow international finaciers would panic at the thought of natives having seized the castle? I remember how during the 1995 Québec referendum , an English-Canadian finacial adviser was telling his customers to leave Québec. He was peddling them mutual funds in the Baltic states right next to a decomposing Russia and some Hon-Kong funds two years before the Chines take-over...<br />"Last; independent currency administered by a central bank and open to international markets." Why last? <br />This is the Norway-Sweden model. The only functionning one in Europe...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39619347910115411962014-02-08T17:44:04.671+00:002014-02-08T17:44:04.671+00:00Scotland's best option; an independent currenc...Scotland's best option; an independent currency, directly administered by Government and subject to tight controls. Their next best option; a currency union with UK. Last; independent currency administered by a central bank and open to international markets.<br />But why should they have an initial deficit? If you take my first option, at independence they would have a major asset - their newly minted currency. Properly invested, the proceeds from the currency swap could balance any fiscal deficit for several years? But I doubt the SNP would consider a currency not owned by a central bank, since that is very unfashionable.<br />But Independence should be a boon for Scotland even if they have to settle for the worst currency option.Nicknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43599688337506041592014-02-07T20:13:29.934+00:002014-02-07T20:13:29.934+00:00The process will in the end evolve the way it did ...The process will in the end evolve the way it did in Czechoslovakia: promise to keep a common currency, drop the idiocy after three weeks, after a year nobody died of it and after ten everybody understand it was the right thing to do.<br />When the Québec independance referendums happened, I always told my students that, monetarily, what Canada and Québec need wasn't two countries with the same currency but one country with five or six currencies.<br />As for expropriating Scottish oil revenues, isn't the way England financed itself in the last 30 years, going as far as unilaterally changing Scottish territorial waters?<br />In the end, of course, rationality could have been effective in the Czech-Slovak case as both , while not that warm-hearted toward each other, never felt the same utter contempt in for each other that rUK and ROC (rest of Canda) political elites hold for Scotland or Québec...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28736961759148097352014-02-07T11:08:54.407+00:002014-02-07T11:08:54.407+00:00The "it's in rUK's interest to have a...The "it's in rUK's interest to have a currency union" argument is a bit besides the point in my view as the real issue is what they'd ask in return for a currency union. A currency union without a lender of last resort would be the worst of all worlds. As would a currency union in which they insist on some draconian distribution of the national debt. <br /><br />The debate seems to conflate something being in a country's wider interest with having actual power over negotiations - it's a bit like saying that because Tesco has a mutual interest in me buying my lunch there I have a good chance of haggling on the price of my sandwich (the difference in volume of trade means Scotland will always get the raw end of the deal).<br /><br />I also think there's a democratic argument that gets overlooked in all of this. While Germany might dominate the Eurozone, the other states at least have formal representation in the decision-making process. Our ill-defined currency union would have Scotland tied to a single country (one obsessed with austerity no less) without any formal representation in joint decision-making. We'd be sacrificing our representation in Westminster yet acknowledging that it would still make key decisions over our economy. That's simply creating one democratic deficit to solve another, and there's certainly no advantage in this sense to independence over, for instance, a federal arrangement or devo max (something most people would actually support, unlike independence).<br /><br /><br />Jeffersonhttp://www.google.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-20914484408018384362014-02-07T09:57:34.562+00:002014-02-07T09:57:34.562+00:00As a starter for ten - and simply accepting the po...As a starter for ten - and simply accepting the points made - the chance to have a less bloated military budget I.e. redirecting existing spendinginto more productive areas, would be nice. As would spending help to buy funds on building social housing. Etc., etc.Primula Monkeyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09289100326536298640noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-1295735227853925592014-02-07T05:54:17.091+00:002014-02-07T05:54:17.091+00:00Mr Draghi's intervention last year certainly c...Mr Draghi's intervention last year certainly convinced the market that peripheral debt had a a eurozone buyer of last resort. Do you think that the current spreads in bond prices reflect economic fundamentals?Tony Maherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04684372328862363343noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-36385777003378226872014-02-06T23:33:08.301+00:002014-02-06T23:33:08.301+00:00Perhaps you underestimate the traction that busine...Perhaps you underestimate the traction that business will have on the rUK government. Refusal to enter a currency union will add significantly to the costs of rUK companies who want to export to Scotland, who are the second biggest rUK export market. They may not be very pleased if Westminster does that.Angry Weegienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-49954045795701414772014-02-06T14:02:57.678+00:002014-02-06T14:02:57.678+00:00It still looks overwhelmingly likely that Scotland...It still looks overwhelmingly likely that Scotland will vote to remain in the UK and continue the slow process of making the Tory Party unelectable. <br /><br />Were Scotland to secede, do you think it will take Northern Ireland with it? <br /><br />I say that puckishly, as the unravelling of the UK will be most unpleasant politically. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com