tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post35493975024701339..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Cherry picking economic statistics and Project FearMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4101956729144381992017-09-15T09:35:25.996+00:002017-09-15T09:35:25.996+00:00When I complained about the FT describing 2013 gro...When I complained about the FT describing 2013 growth as 'vindicating Osborne's austerity', I was told this was true because politician X or economist Y had said that growth would not return if austerity continued. You can always find an X or Y, but that does not mean the FT were right in what they said.<br /><br />If the SNP had come clean about the short term fiscal costs of independence you would have a strong case. They did not, and instead talked about Project Fear. The fact that No over did the gloom does not make that right either.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45057323597371874032017-09-15T09:26:11.868+00:002017-09-15T09:26:11.868+00:00I don't get this argument. Economists believe ...I don't get this argument. Economists believe leaving trade agreements will make people considerably worse off. How else are they meant to express this except by numbers?<br /><br />Also the Chancellor did not confuse GDP per capita with household income. This was Leave misinformation that unfortunately the BBC factcheckers swallowed without asking any economists. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-34176015874444405192017-09-11T19:34:22.548+00:002017-09-11T19:34:22.548+00:00I can name 10 territories classed as in Northern o...I can name 10 territories classed as in Northern or Western Europe that are not EU members. One of them has an income per head ( PPP ) that is lower than its nearest EU neighbour. So on the balance of probabilities becoming a self-governing territory not being in the EU is a good thing.<br />If it turns out bad, we can only blame government management of it, not the decision to cease EU membership itself. Imv, of course.Andrew Careyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08442714147160589939noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-5683555333990843332017-09-11T14:13:29.231+00:002017-09-11T14:13:29.231+00:00Your depiction of the Scottish version of 'Pro...Your depiction of the Scottish version of 'Project Fear' is rather myopic and therefore your definition is wide of the mark too. Project Fear was not restricted to macro-economic factors in the Indyref – very far from it. No warning was too dire or too ludicrous not to be thrown at the Scots – from no more blood transfusions to a Russian invasion, from warship building to watching Eastenders, from tax-office closures to oil-exploration, from energy subsidies to border guards, nothing was off limits.<br /><br />Here’s a more neutral definition:<br /><br />“Project Fear: A term used by one or more sides in a major debate to encompass and dismiss all projected negative outcomes associated with their preferred result. Often associated with initial hyperbolic warnings, it is often depicted as being used opportunistically to dismiss all criticisms.”<br /><br />A slightly less neutral Background: "Initially used by Scottish Nationalists to encapsulate the relentlessly dire warnings made by the ‘No’ campaign (who had initially coined the term to refer to their strategy) during the Scottish Independence referendum of 2014.. Maintained it’s potency north of the border when it became clear that most of the dire warnings of a Yes vote came to pass anyway even though the No campaign won.<br /><br />Briefly criticised for it’s use by the Leave Campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum following a short-term speeding of the decline in real incomes that had been going on for years inside the EU and a similarly not-atypical economic slowdown. However, this slowdown was later forgotten following the Second Global Financial Crisis of 2019 (GFC2.0), when the immediate implementation of capital controls, direct government intervention, Overt Monetary Financing (including the so-called ‘Green New Deal’) and bank and utility nationalisations were considered a major part in allowing the UK to return to growth very much more rapidly than would have been the case had the UK remained within the EU. In subsequent years the maintenance of these policies allowed the UK to maintain levels of growth that had only been seen periodically since joining the EC in 1973, but this time without the hugely destructive volatility and inequality associated with the period of market fundamentalism.”<br /><br /><br />Adrian D.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-327823547516304752017-09-11T13:25:39.746+00:002017-09-11T13:25:39.746+00:00Can cherry-picking skills be used for picking stra...Can cherry-picking skills be used for picking strawberries?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-29254670886916882032017-09-11T09:00:03.236+00:002017-09-11T09:00:03.236+00:00You make a very good point that brexit negotiators...You make a very good point that brexit negotiators are still very much bought into the ideology of Project Fear, and therefore cannot possibly be objective regarding the UK'S negotiating position.<br /><br />I think the Remain campaign walked right into the project fear trap. That moment when the treasury and others rolled out quantified impact to GDP, they started to look less like economists and more like soothsayers. No doubt the models used are incredibly complex, but given brexit is itself unprecedented, the goal was left wide open to criticism. Made worse still by the Chancellor (perhaps deliberately) confusing GDP per capita with household income, leaving only the bad taste of contempt for the electorate. Leave were laughing all the way to the polling booth. <br /><br />Labour is now making a lot of sense. But difficult to see how they can have much effect without first forcing a GE. Corbyn and McDonald remain a liability. Their presence only hardens the DUP's support for the Tories. And I cannot see disenfranchised Tory voters turning to Labour with them at the helm.<br /><br />We're in for a rude awakening. My only hope is that the voice of business now comes to the fore, and starts withholding party donations until we see more sensible behaviour.<br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04008444641101332106noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-36513257481032264922017-09-10T13:07:53.806+00:002017-09-10T13:07:53.806+00:00Very good. I lived thru both referenda. The destru...Very good. I lived thru both referenda. The destruction of objectivity, undermining of truth and character assassination are so effective in winning votes that this is the future. Like locusts we will destroy that which sustains us (civic society) for short term gains. You are flat wrong to think it will fall out of favor, look at the hurricanes hammering the USA. Their destruction is amplified as predicted by climate change. The phoney Limbaugh runs from the Irma at the same time denouncing it as an exaggeration. The science has been clear for years and effects are here in real time. Has it changed people’s views? Not yet. So if death and destruction don’t break the tribal post truth society, being worse off by 10% won’t, I fear. As a parent I am depressed by the future society I see for my kids. Uncle Abehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06275542135616491069noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-15290550141755153552017-09-10T11:10:25.353+00:002017-09-10T11:10:25.353+00:00Whilst it is true that cherry picking statistics t...Whilst it is true that cherry picking statistics that support any given ideology, is a game and serves no other useful purpose..... but it does seem to that anti Brexiteers can also fall into the same category.<br /><br />There is never a mention from anti Brexiteers about the rigging of political institutions, the secrecy in which it conducts its business, and the lack of real political accountability, due to the fact that it is a free market Neo-liberal institution that serves business interests above those of the people it was supposed to represent.<br /><br />The clearest indication of this has been the way it treated Greece and the personal meeting between Wolfgang Schaeuble and Yanis Varafoukas where Yanis asked him would he sign the same agreement that he expected Greece to, Schaeuble answered he would not sign it as a German patriot, but that Greece will.<br /><br />http://www.politico.eu/article/greek-economy-minister-says-wolfgang-schauble-dishonest-on-debt-relief/<br /><br /><br />There is also lots of statistics here that show all is not well in the European unbalanced economy:<br /><br />http://bilbo.economicoutlook.net/blog/?p=36809<br /><br />We must all be careful to take a wider perspective on the benefits or losses to any political system, but to assume that Europe will have long term implications that will be the detriment of the British economy is to ignore the very real long term problems facing Europe.<br /><br />Mervyn Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10509054505553883594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-67966856590986307142017-09-09T22:17:37.574+00:002017-09-09T22:17:37.574+00:00I hope you are as good with predictions as you are...I hope you are as good with predictions as you are with understanding the economyAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05264074842276728021noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-56765345009719450722017-09-09T19:59:46.450+00:002017-09-09T19:59:46.450+00:00The counter argument to labour growth (despite neg...The counter argument to labour growth (despite negligible wage growth) is that Roman slaves had labour..that does not mean that there is no problem.fjlm44https://www.blogger.com/profile/08264427331374493074noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45057270639494955782017-09-09T15:21:53.256+00:002017-09-09T15:21:53.256+00:00«output, employment and productivity. Since the GF...«<i>output, employment and productivity. Since the GFC, UK output growth has been insipid but employment growth has been strong</i>»<br /><br />The usual two points:<br /><br />#1 F Coppola has reported that P Wales of the ONS has data showing that most of productivity slowdown has been since 2006, clearly before the GFC, and in oil extraction, and secondarily in finance: www.coppolacomment.com/2016/07/the-untold-story-of-uks-productivity.html<br /><br />#2 It just so happens that in 2006-2007 by coincidence the UK became a net oil importer after 25 "a-go-go" years as a net scottish oil exporter: mazamascience.com/OilExport/output_en/Exports_BP_2016_oil_bbl_GB_MZM_NONE_auto_M.png<br /><br />Looks like to me that “<i>Since the GFC</i>“ means using the GFC as a time marker ("Gordon and Alistair being consuls") while suggesting that as a cause while not actually saying it.<br /><br />As to "Project Fear", I agree with our blogger that “<i>major economic cost will not become apparent until years after we actually leave the Single Market</i>” and that some minor ones are already apparent, but sensible assessment has little political traction, it is a pretty weak "Project Fear" :-).<br /><br />Like in the scottish referendum what could really shift attitudes is fear of a house price crash, or an actual house price crash, as that looks like clear and present damage to southern voters, but I doubt that "The Establishment" will allow one to happen before its time just because of Brexit; but if we are "lucky" one will happen before March 2019.<br /><br />«<i>The use of the term Project Fear was an attempt to shut out expertise and evidence from the Brexit debate</i>»<br /><br />The real "Project Fear" was not some Economist predicting long term damage of some 8% lower GDP growth over 10-15 years, but the G Osborne's predictions of a collapse in public finances and worse in case of "Leave" victory, something that did not happen, because the damage will be long term and significant but not a collapse.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76962072748192149342017-09-09T14:06:11.223+00:002017-09-09T14:06:11.223+00:00I hope it reaches the point where Brexit can be st...I hope it reaches the point where Brexit can be stopped by Parliament through one or two general elections not another referendum.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com