tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post437963356984225146..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: As things stand, the chances of defeating Johnson at the next election are minusculeMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-15330978797456737522021-04-05T10:35:21.779+00:002021-04-05T10:35:21.779+00:00I am sorry to be coming late to this post. An inte...I am sorry to be coming late to this post. An interesting and helpful post on which I will reflect. However you make no reference to Scotland. It remains to be seen what is the outcome of Holyrood elections on 6th May. In the 2010 General Election, the Labour Party won 41 of the 59 Scottish Westminster seats; in the 2019 election it won just one. Surely the Labour Party needs to win back some of these and even then it will certainly need the support of SNP MPs. However, unless it recognises the increasing demand for independence/"devo max", it hasn't a hope of regaining much support in Scotland. It needs to make concrete proposals not vague promises of a Constitutional Commission. I am a former Labour voter but to me voting in Scotland, the Labour Party is now simply irrelevant . Daniel Lamontnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39645946075752979752021-04-04T01:02:55.484+00:002021-04-04T01:02:55.484+00:00The lib-right quadrant looks rather empty except a...The lib-right quadrant looks rather empty except around the edges. I suspect though that of the four quadrants, lib-right ideology has the most elite support (including among MPs) relative to general population support, for the same reason that a member of the elite is far more likely than the average voter to be a university-educated landlord. Elite disapproval of your political programme creates a very difficult environment in Parliament, the media, funding etc, even if your policies individually have very large majorities of voter support (as is true of a number of "left-wing" economic policies).<br /><br />It may be the Lib Dems would be the natural home of this quadrant in other circumstances, but it's not clear how that gets the Tories out of power: at the voter level, there are not enough lib-right voters in marginal seats to make a difference, and at the elite level, there would be an awkward clash of messaging between them and Labour, given that Labour doesn't want to speak up on social liberalism but is overtly opposed to the lib-rights on economic policy. Perhaps the best we can hope for from lib-right influencers is a kind of British Lincoln Project, i.e. trying to create an alternative "liberal Conservative" narrative that critiques the corruption, incompetence and authoritarianism of the present government, without saying much about Labour directly.Colinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17472849515808155408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-18020755022089605782021-04-02T19:15:44.055+00:002021-04-02T19:15:44.055+00:00It was clear to many (though to not enough at the ...It was clear to many (though to not enough at the time) that the 2019 general election was the most serious in our recent history. An authoritarian, Bannon inspired, govt was going to ride a wave to a majority; with a liberal coalition the only thing that could stop it. I have much time for both Lib Dems and Green parties, but they should be chastising themselves for treating 2019 GE as just 'another election', as that approach led us to what we have now. Jo Swinson was reckless. Corbyn for all his faults realised Brexit couldn't be put back in the bottle, but needed to be owned by a responsible govt. We should have had a left coalition govt headed by Corbyn temporarily until the dust settled.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-11064918298083470352021-03-29T17:07:35.484+00:002021-03-29T17:07:35.484+00:00Minuscule! I considered being picky about that, bu...Minuscule! I considered being picky about that, but I am happy that nature has taken its course without me.KenDhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15465655899470629643noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-15761620896096129272021-03-25T10:40:59.103+00:002021-03-25T10:40:59.103+00:00Excellent article. Thank you. This has helped &quo...Excellent article. Thank you. This has helped "crystallise" my understanding of this question. Dave Kirsoppnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-60116303716105720812021-03-24T20:35:58.765+00:002021-03-24T20:35:58.765+00:00“The Conservatives are way ahead in the polls at t...“The Conservatives are way ahead in the polls at the moment, because the government had the right policy on vaccine procurement and delivery. That will fade, but it could quickly be replaced by an economic recovery bounce.”<br /><br />I think this is too simplistic. It is not just that the Government has done well on vaccination. It is that its performance is in contrast to that of other Governments (notably within the EU) that have done badly. So too will it be on economic recovery.<br /> <br />Potentially, it looks as if the Eurozone is lined up for Euro-crisis mark II. Greek debt to GDP is now more than 200%, for Italy it is 160%. Spanish unemployment was 14% even before the pandemic. Maybe, the EU can avoid a crisis if it is agile, but its recent performance on the vaccine issue doesn’t inspire confidence. It is quite conceivable that the later the Government goes to the electorate the bigger will be the disparity between the EU and UK recovery.<br /><br />The EU’s problems largely arise from the North-South disparity and it is the latter which has suffered most economically from the curtailment of tourism. No doubt UK ministers are aware of this, so expect overseas holidays to be restricted this summer. All for health reasons of course.<br />TeeJayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02894564884420913780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32713137688949209552021-03-24T13:13:41.277+00:002021-03-24T13:13:41.277+00:00I agree on the strategy for Labour less of the ...I agree on the strategy for Labour less of the 'virtue' issues and more of the stuff that affects 90+% of the electorate. Sadly the socially liberal issues are the only thing that unites Labour's 2 wings? <br /><br />For Labour Liberals and Greens to unite is a very broad church without any historical factors and without the symbiosis that binds the two sides of Labour unhappily together. <br /><br />They need to play on their field. The Dems being outsmarted by Bannon for instance in USA. He made a quip that 'they' would be better for black people and the Dems disappeared down a rabbit hole of their love of black people* for 2 weeks and revived the Trump campaign by playing on their opponents chosen field. <br /><br />I asked a friend who watched Labour debates did they discuss trans rights and he was yes at length. Next what was their stated economic philosophy? Never mentioned. <br /><br />Labour needs to right itself first or this coalition would merely presage chaos given it would need the neo liberal nationalist SNP probably. <br /><br />* Irony Obama Admin': foreclosed on poor people 5.5 Mn evictions disproportionately black: Obama personally told poor black people to drink the poison water in Flint: allowed Big Ag to openly discriminate against small Black farmers etc now this was not racism but class hatred as their failure to tackle the opioid epidemic showed. Plus when these murders by the cops occur who is the Mayor and whose Govt's passed crime bills and welfare 'reform' and armed the police? Who backed mass incarceration in the 90s etc etc<br />bedfonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08734407435275515547noreply@blogger.com