tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post4813240724965287219..comments2024-03-18T11:12:51.114+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Silly questions or silly economicsMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger28125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-64081645102439940672015-04-13T11:07:29.142+00:002015-04-13T11:07:29.142+00:00How I Get My Husband Back With The Help Of Dr Brav...How I Get My Husband Back With The Help Of Dr Brave <br /><br />Hello everyone, My name is Mary, a citizen of USA; am 42 years of age..we got married for more than 11 years and have gotten two kids. thing were going well with us and we are always happy. until one day my husband started to behave in a way i could not understand, i was very confused by the way he treat me and the kids. later that month he did not come home again and he called me that he want a divorce, i asked him what have i done wrong to deserve this from him, all he was saying is that he want a divorce that he hate me and do not want to see me again in his life, i was mad and also frustrated do not know what to do,i was sick for more than 2 weeks because of the divorce. i love him so much he was everything to me without him my life is incomplete. i told my sister and she told me to contact a spell caster, i never believe in all this spell casting of a thing. i just want to try if something will come out of it. i contacted Dr Brave for the return of my husband to me, they told me that my husband have been taken by another woman, that she cast a spell on him that is why he hate me and also want us to divorce. then they told me that they have to cast a spell on him that will make him return to me and the kids, they casted the spell and after 1 week my husband called me and he told me that i should forgive him, he started to apologize on phone and said that he still live me that he did not know what happen to him that he left me. it was the spell that he Dr Brave casted on him that make him come back to me today,me and my family are now happy again today. thank you Dr Brave for what you have done for me i would have been nothing today if not for your great spell. i want you my friends who are passing through all this kind of love problem of getting back their husband, wife , or ex boyfriend and girlfriend to contact Dr Brave ,if you need his help you can contact him through his private mail: bravespellcaster@gmail.com or you can contact him through his website http://enchantedscents.tripod.com/lovespell/ and you will see that your problem will be solved without any delay.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03667383921783399597noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-79216104422141401822015-04-10T10:35:34.980+00:002015-04-10T10:35:34.980+00:00"which component of aggregate demand would ri..."which component of aggregate demand would rise in your example"<br /><br />Anon's question was about movement along the AD curve in response to an SRAS shock, not a movement in the AD curve itself. Working out how an SRAS shock breaks down across GDP is not particularly relevant.<br /><br />Yes, if you assume that output is fixed by AD, there are no SRAS shocks and you will get strange results like labour supply is determined by the inverse of productivity... or vice versa? You are a long way from a textbook model here, and I imagine a lot of British central bankers would fall out of their chairs laughing if you told them there cannot be SRAS shocks, or at least such shocks don't affect output.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42148002640507981482015-04-08T22:38:02.459+00:002015-04-08T22:38:02.459+00:00Have you factored-in migration?
Thousands of worke...Have you factored-in migration?<br />Thousands of workers have migrated from the higher-unemployment and low-growth areas of Europe (i.e. most of it) to work in the UK where there are jobs available and economic growth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-49946919287593336712015-04-06T01:03:42.964+00:002015-04-06T01:03:42.964+00:00It seems a lot of folk really have a hard time gra...It seems a lot of folk really have a hard time grasping that firms don't just make stuff cuz thats what you do after you get up in the morning. Contract manufacturing (in the US) runs on shorter time scales, so that a drop off in demand for part A leads to a near-immediate decrease in employment, in that less temps are hired that month (just as an example). Part A picks up, things are busy, more temps are hired on or returned. So in a general slow down, nobody is making more parts just because they can... People make parts and stuff cuz they have orders for them, not cuz they think they might sell it, that sort of gambling is gauche. And of course everyone wants to keep their inventory at a target level compared to outputs, and for various accounting reasons. Anyway, rambling as I am, would strong employment growth and stagnant productivity just be a chimerical effect of high turnover jobs, effectively, people just switching places with each other at the unemployment line? Or everyone just working eight less hours a week?Phil Sturmnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-78446826383665358422015-04-05T19:22:19.622+00:002015-04-05T19:22:19.622+00:00Simon! My goodness! You have gotten old. I hope it...Simon! My goodness! You have gotten old. I hope it isn't one of those rapid aging conditions:<br /><br />http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/The_Deadly_Years_%28episode%29<br /><br />Thankfully your mind remains intact.Mike Brennanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10051030677512027040noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-2669746539188726392015-04-05T16:29:48.755+00:002015-04-05T16:29:48.755+00:00I think we both agree that in the long run (once w...I think we both agree that in the long run (once we're away from the ZLB) production will be higher. Won't this have an impact on demand today (e.g people will borrow against their higher future income)? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-34523117689726929782015-04-04T17:26:10.897+00:002015-04-04T17:26:10.897+00:00Let me ask you the same question I asked him - whi...Let me ask you the same question I asked him - which component of aggregate demand would rise in your example? There is no point firms producing more if they cannot sell the extra goods.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-373449721726689072015-04-04T17:21:00.946+00:002015-04-04T17:21:00.946+00:00Suppose the IQ of every worker went up by 30 point...Suppose the IQ of every worker went up by 30 points overnight and everyone was suddenly able to operate on 2 hours sleep a night. Does SWL really believe the result would be mass unemployment? Surely this increase in productivity would increase output as well (so there is no presumption employment would fall)? <br /><br />This is my understanding of Mr Bourne's discussion of productivity and it seems reasonable to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-65549041863897571172015-04-04T10:09:12.138+00:002015-04-04T10:09:12.138+00:00That would be the Hugh Pym who a few years back wa...That would be the Hugh Pym who a few years back was gushing about the coalition's deficit reduction plans and saying that the next step was to pay off the whole national debt. I see he's now reporting health where, hopefully, he can be a bit less stupid.gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-58565107023786264162015-04-03T13:30:56.951+00:002015-04-03T13:30:56.951+00:00Higher employment DOES cause lower productivity if...Higher employment DOES cause lower productivity if output does not rise - that's maths. You may say "but it's impossible - no one would increase employment if they were not also going to increase output." Unfortunately or not, this is not the case. Employment subsidies of many kinds (I've identified some of them before - EITC, apprenticeship subsidies) can change the optimal mix of labour to other inputs even in the absence of any increase in output. Again, the increase in employment created by these subsidies may have valuable social, and even macro-economic (Keynsian) effects but they will reduce productivity.DavidShttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11679346381085854499noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-34928921893978531342015-04-02T22:47:38.481+00:002015-04-02T22:47:38.481+00:00At my end of the economy, I'm disabled and so ...At my end of the economy, I'm disabled and so relatively poor, it seems to me a lot of young people are not claiming unemployment benefit (Job Seekers Allowance), as the benefit is too low for the difficultly of claiming it. Of these most do some work with their parents or for friends or neighbours for two days, or so, which gives them enough to get by with parental support. Others do blocks of 2, 3 - 6 months work, loose their job (a contract ends) and they then live off their savings until they find a another job, For people around my age most go self-employed to escape the clutches of the DWP, and do what ever work is available. It's a rare week where they get a full week's work. Rates of pay vary quite a lot, construction can pay very well, indeed, for someone living in their parents extremely well, but in general rates are at or below the minimum wage. From this anecdotal 'evidence' it appears some of the new jobs created provide only a few hours/days work per week and at a low rate of pay. I've been trying - as a thought experiment - to work out how this stacks up with respect to productivity (it's influence on demand is obvious). I do not know how many hours is allocated in these circumstances. I suspect its more than they actually work and I believe this would lower productivity. Another point of interest comes from this issue and the inadequacy of measuring unemployment and employment using the present system. I guess we need something that measures hours worked rather than per person working?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-92052186435501012052015-04-02T22:44:03.346+00:002015-04-02T22:44:03.346+00:00( ... and looking at the actual responses just now...( ... and looking at the actual responses just now I see it's not only those economists who've “Agree”d with the statement of Q1 who seem determined to make defending economics as a science more difficult than it ought to be. :< )Paul Hayeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04309125585593320043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-21177070478099341802015-04-02T22:17:41.262+00:002015-04-02T22:17:41.262+00:00There are no wrong answers in that sense (it was a...There are no wrong answers in that sense (it was a survey: all honest answers are 'correct'), no, but those economists who agreed with the statement of Q1 certainly were compounding their error.<br /><br />Admittedly some of them might've been acting in good faith in the sense that they really do still believe austerity was the right policy but in that case I'd judge them crackpots. <br /><br />I don't see why anyone'd be trapped by the question either. If Bourne is right it'd just mean economics has an even worse problem with incompetence, intellectual dishonesty, crackpottery or whatever than the survey results suggest.Paul Hayeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04309125585593320043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-74918361690101980702015-04-02T20:36:14.125+00:002015-04-02T20:36:14.125+00:00You'd only compound your error if you were in ...You'd only compound your error if you were in error (which, granted, you might be - but remember this was a survey, not a test - there are no wrong answers).<br /><br />For sure, knowledge is never perfect. But if you predicted good (or other) things from Austerity back in 2010, you might have some idea of how things seem to have gone 5 years later. Heck, you can even test against multiple instances of Austerity from around the world. That's how we'd know (or not know - not knowing was an option on the survey), even if imperfectly.<br /><br />I don't see why anyone would be trapped (as Bourne asserts) by the question 'has austerity delivered positive results?' - it's hardly a trick question.<br /><br />If you think (in error or otherwise) austerity was the right thing to do, you ought to be able to say so in a survey without getting in muddle and accidentally saying that it's had a negative effect.<br /><br />Even if you thought austerity was some sort of least worse option, it still shouldn't throw anyone: -2 is +2 more than -4. And last I looked +2 was positive.Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14191262506975234138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-646518141270752772015-04-02T20:35:17.285+00:002015-04-02T20:35:17.285+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14191262506975234138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-35450528067980892392015-04-02T20:33:31.200+00:002015-04-02T20:33:31.200+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14191262506975234138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28137168641059104242015-04-02T18:37:19.918+00:002015-04-02T18:37:19.918+00:00“then you could in perfect good faith say that you...“then you could in perfect good faith say that you thought Austerity had a positive effect - no?”<br /><br />No. Fearghal is right: you would be <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rationalization_%28making_excuses%29" rel="nofollow">compounding your error</a>, not acting in good faith. I was <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/24/fiscal-virtue-and-fiscal-vice-macroeconomics-at-a-crossroads-quantitative-easing#comment-49494004" rel="nofollow">disappointed</a> to see Robert Skidelsky defending this sort of thing recently. Paul Hayeshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04309125585593320043noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-50616835666750748212015-04-02T18:07:36.488+00:002015-04-02T18:07:36.488+00:00Well yes, though on the one hand the Koch brothers...Well yes, though on the one hand the Koch brothers are unlikely to support you for very long.<br /><br />On the other, we don't need left wing propaganda. Prof. W-L will tell you that mainstream academic economics provides all you need to think critically about austerity. However, the interesting question now is why the media don't find this worth reporting.Magnus Carlsennoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-59638270574397588522015-04-02T17:23:49.241+00:002015-04-02T17:23:49.241+00:00How would you know those things came to pass? You ...How would you know those things came to pass? You can't see the counterfactual no-Austerity economy, so you can't measure its performance to find out if Austerity was the least worst option. <br /><br />FearghalAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-35495792398259596322015-04-02T17:18:07.639+00:002015-04-02T17:18:07.639+00:00It's not that low productivity necessarily lea...It's not that low productivity necessarily leads to low unemployment, but that if you have stagnant productivity, then any growth in output (GDP growth) must come from increased employment. We're not talking about any mechanisms here, just describing the situation. I think Professor WL's points are that employment growth with no productivity growth is not an unambiguously good thing, especially in the longer run; and that it's pretty bizarre to think that worrying about low productivity growth is bizarre.<br /><br />FearghalAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-19399842111171525762015-04-02T15:31:06.258+00:002015-04-02T15:31:06.258+00:00What's needed is some tit-for-tat. Enough of t...What's needed is some tit-for-tat. Enough of the Institute of this and Adam Smith institute of that. I'm off to register TheThatcherInstitute.org as a web address and fill it with left wing propaganda.Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14191262506975234138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-35228579010168916432015-04-02T15:18:41.463+00:002015-04-02T15:18:41.463+00:00If you supported Austerity and thought it a short ...If you supported Austerity and thought it a short term hit in return for improved performance later, or if you thought Austerity was the least worst option even, and those things came to pass, then you could in perfect good faith say that you thought Austerity had a positive effect - no?<br /><br />This isn't hard surely?Jasonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14191262506975234138noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-21523933525032407702015-04-02T14:00:31.557+00:002015-04-02T14:00:31.557+00:00What I didn't get from SWL's post is why l...What I didn't get from SWL's post is why low productivity leads to low unemployment. What's the story behind these relationships in this case?Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06743143177414830201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-63383536935294529542015-04-02T13:49:56.441+00:002015-04-02T13:49:56.441+00:00I believe he is saying that the low unemployment i...I believe he is saying that the low unemployment in combination with an economy that is standing still means that productivity is also standing still. In Britain during normal times and for most countries even during the crisis, people produce more and more output per hour of work. This stopped being the case for the British since the current crisis began, as Professor SWL shows in his chart. Basically, the low unemployment has only been achieved through a general impoverishment of the nation.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07730077084140053327noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-75187169139859880992015-04-02T13:04:45.441+00:002015-04-02T13:04:45.441+00:00It all started going wrong at the BBC when Hugh Py...It all started going wrong at the BBC when Hugh Pym just before the general election of 2010 on the one o' clock and six o' clock news was allowed to state that the 364 economists writing to the Times were wrong in 1981 and Geoffrey Howe was right. <br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com