tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post5238859843300564311..comments2024-03-29T12:16:15.785+00:00Comments on mainly macro: The Financial Market as a Vengeful GodMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-71103024641767095192012-04-23T12:44:45.289+00:002012-04-23T12:44:45.289+00:00This is very true. Never believe someone who alway...This is very true. Never believe someone who always has an explanation for everything. Often the market moves simply because there are more buyers than sellers or vice versa.<br /><br />Having said that, the market's reaction to a surprise for example in interest rates (the magnitude, since the direction is usually clear) can indicate the overall positioning of the market and thus which is the direction of highest vulnerability.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-2024437433746885782012-04-19T03:04:20.220+00:002012-04-19T03:04:20.220+00:00I know this article may be intended light-heartedl...I know this article may be intended light-heartedly, but I'm not sure if I agree with it. To compare a physical goods market to the financial market is not appropriate - people buy physical goods to make use of them, whilst 90% of most financial market players are investing in order to gain a financial return, not because they in any way want a lien on the underlying asset. Since other participants' buying/selling affects the value of their holding, no matter what the fundamentals of the situation, these actors do have to be aware of other participants' views. Without a direct way to exchange information, certain pieces of news or economic releases end up becoming widely-acknowledged arbiters for short-term market direction, and triggers for buying/selling. Thus, although you could very easily argue that a single Non-farm payroll number is completely irrelevant to the value of your holding in (say) Boeing, if you are worried about short-term mark-to-market losses then you may still need to react to that number's release. Hence the market generally is encouraged to follow certain acknowledged signals, which are easy enough for financial journalists to also track.the idler of marchnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-6824896039525787042012-04-09T13:35:10.217+00:002012-04-09T13:35:10.217+00:00" I would like them to reply ‘well no one rea..." I would like them to reply ‘well no one really knows, but one possible factor might be...’. They never do. If I wanted to be unkind, I might suggest that these pundits want to appear like high priests, with a unique ability to understand the mysterious mind of the market."<br /><br />If I wanted to be kind about the same phenomenon I would suggest that journalists won't continue to ring up people who say "I dunno".Tim Worstallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13161727860817121071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-86576027289291184972012-04-07T09:52:45.639+00:002012-04-07T09:52:45.639+00:00Bravo, Professor!
Also, the appeal to 'confid...Bravo, Professor!<br /><br />Also, the appeal to 'confidence' always makes me (unkind as I am) think of the famous Kalecki paper on politics and full employment that you discussed a while ago in your <a href="http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/on-hidden-motives.html" rel="nofollow">hidden motives post</a>.Agognoreply@blogger.com