tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post5563687970666638387..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: One vote to bring them all, and in the darkness bind themMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger12125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-29998766093248109752017-05-06T17:27:27.319+00:002017-05-06T17:27:27.319+00:00From the US, the situation looks a lot like our Ob...From the US, the situation looks a lot like our Obamacare debacle where a awkward and complex compromise with apparent flaws (Obamacare and EU membership) comes up against a claimed perfect future that both conservative parties have been hawking. Previously, the anti-Brexers and the US Democratic party had a difficult task of attacking the invisible target of future consequences. Now both real futures are in the process of becoming true - more promptly in the US where the Obamacare replacements are moving from fantasy to ugly reality with striking consequences for the Republicans. Despite this, they continue being unable to either go backwards or create a real solution. Will the UK go the same way? The one big difference is that May can try to rouse nationalism to blame the Europeans when Brits lose things they care about. BCWhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06905387799270933298noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-449535043026806672017-05-02T23:08:52.206+00:002017-05-02T23:08:52.206+00:00«For die-hard Remainers its best to vote tacticall...«For die-hard Remainers its best to vote tactically.»<br /><br />And that includes voting for soft-Brexiters in Labour as that is the next best option to "Remain", and a switch to "Remain" is regrettably rather unlikely.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-86621800212396828572017-05-01T17:46:26.153+00:002017-05-01T17:46:26.153+00:00Web search gives me for example:
https://www.shef...Web search gives me for example:<br /><br />https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/nr/election-does-personality-matter-1.461778<br />«But the effect of leader evaluations on the chances of voting for a party are much weaker when we control for prior partisanship than when we do not. For instance, when we control for prior partisanship, whether or not people like David Cameron goes from explaining 65% of whether they will consider voting Conservative to just 15%. The fall in the capacity of feelings about Ed Miliband to explain how likely people are to vote Labour is similar – down from 54% to 14%.»<br /><br />http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/the-impact-of-party-leader-images-on-vote-switching-in-the-run-up-to-the-general-election/<br />«David Cameron has a smaller positive impact for the Conservatives, and Ed Miliband is a modest liability for Labour.»<br /><br />https://global.oup.com/academic/product/platform-or-personality-9780199595365<br />«the academic literature is much more divided. Some suggest that leaders play an important role in the vote calculus, while others argue that in comparison to other factors, perceptions of leaders have only a minimal impact.»<br /><br />IIRC C Dillow in his book has more references. On his blog he argues against a large effect of the press here:<br /><br />http://stumblingandmumbling.typepad.com/stumbling_and_mumbling/2013/10/ignore-the-newspapers.html<br /><br />My impression as an armchair reader of various books etc. is that there is an effect but it is in general fairly modest. Anecdotes abound: relatively uninspiring or unknown "leaders" have often "won" UK elections, from Attlee to Major and Blair to Cameron.<br /><br />As to Blair, that New Labour managed to win 3 elections despite his toxicity losing the party 4 million votes can only be ascribed to the even greater unpopularity of house-price-crashing Conservatives, look at the very different vote profiles for Thatcher and Blair:<br /><br />1974: Labour 11.45m, Conservatives 10.46m, Liberals 5.34m<br />--<br />1979: Labour 11.53m, Conservatives 13.70m, Liberals 4.31m<br />1983: Labour 8.46m, Conservatives 13.01m, Liberals 7.78m<br />1987: Labour 10.03m, Conservatives 13.74m, Liberals 7.34m<br />1992: Labour 11.56m, Conservatives 14.09, Liberals 6.00m<br />--<br />1997: Labour 13.52m Conservatives 9.60m, Liberals 5.24m<br />2001: Labour 10.72m Conservatives 8.34m, Liberals 4.81m<br />2005: Labour 9.55m, Conservatives 8.78m, Liberals 5.99m<br />--<br />2010: Labour 8.61m, Conservatives 10.70m, Liberals 6.84m<br />--<br />2015: Labour 9.35m, Conservatives 11.30m, Other 6.00m<br />Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4077140960029838182017-04-30T16:04:34.618+00:002017-04-30T16:04:34.618+00:00For die-hard Remainers its best to vote tactically...For die-hard Remainers its best to vote tactically. There would be no point voting LibDem if that allowed a Leave Tory to defeat a Remain Labour politician. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-80322362458253891342017-04-29T23:05:37.311+00:002017-04-29T23:05:37.311+00:00Why aren't die-hard Remainers like SWL strongl...Why aren't die-hard Remainers like SWL strongly advocating the electorate vote Lib Dem? <br /><br />The Lib Dems are clearly the most pro-EU party and offer the best chance of halting Brexit. Most election commentary I've seen suggests their stance will garner them more votes, but probably only a few extra seats - they need a boost. Saying 'they wouldn't win' seems like a self-fulfilling prophecy. They offer a chance of stopping Brexit; others don't.<br /><br />A side anecdote: I heard an old-school Labour supporter on the radio recently, saying she'd put party politics aside for the good of the country and vote Conservative for the first time - Theresa May's cynical move looks set to work for her.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-57382110870253962442017-04-28T16:56:29.287+00:002017-04-28T16:56:29.287+00:00A big majority just gives May more room to say &qu...A big majority just gives May more room to say "it's not my fault, I did my best to get the deal that you all asked me to get" when she fails.gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-7232480381287096712017-04-28T16:46:46.788+00:002017-04-28T16:46:46.788+00:00I'd like to know more about 'quite a bit o...I'd like to know more about 'quite a bit of statistical evidence'.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-65159444293429787172017-04-28T16:45:28.586+00:002017-04-28T16:45:28.586+00:00Its not calling the election that created the boun...Its not calling the election that created the bounce, but the start of negotiations.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-75968850339867474152017-04-28T13:47:06.245+00:002017-04-28T13:47:06.245+00:00«The negotiations have been portrayed in the UK me...«<i>The negotiations have been portrayed in the UK media as a battle between the UK and the EU.</i>»<br /><br />But there is quite a bit of statistical evidence that both leaders and the press have a relatively small impact on general election votes. As Tony Blair once said “<i>people judge us on their instincts about what they believe our instincts to be</i>”.<br /><br />For many "Leave" voters the press and leaders don't matter: what matters is their "instinct" that EU membership is a national humiliation, a quisling surrender of England's great and global empire to be just a member of small and insignificant regional group, and it is quite impossible to reason with an "instinct" that gives a feeling of national humiliation, especially one rooted in England's defeat in WW2 and its aftermath.<br /><br />«<i>just cannot understand why we have embarked on this crazy path.</i>»<br /><br />I was for "Remain" too and now for soft-exit (EFTA/EEA would be the best option as J Corbyn has been arguing), of the J Corbyn "75%" variety, and I think that being in or out does not make that much of an economic difference, surely not to the level of "crazy".<br /><br />Our blogger quoted several times in the past quite plausible estimates of 8% of loss of GDP growth over 5-15 years as the consequence of exit, and while that is quite significant, like the aftermath of a hard recession, it is not "crazy", just dumb.<br />Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-79373460725864652132017-04-28T11:24:22.218+00:002017-04-28T11:24:22.218+00:00JC has as good a chance as Trump, if he plays the ...JC has as good a chance as Trump, if he plays the same game (disruption). How many pollsters backed a Trump victory?<br /><br />Only time will tell us whether we have a strong economy now. Historians are much better at judging this than economists. Historians might even be better at predicting the strength of the economy in the future.<br />StuartPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13748038209546648459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45701607392632477492017-04-27T13:35:58.232+00:002017-04-27T13:35:58.232+00:00It's not true that there has been a poll bounc...It's not true that there has been a poll bounce -- look at the aggregated polls at, e.g. UK Polling Report. The only reason May called the election in the first place was that polls at the time were indicating a 20-point lead for the Conservatives, and that lead has so far remained fairly stable since the election was called.<br /><br />The Observer misleadingly reported a "poll bounce" last Sunday because the week before the election was called it had run an outlier poll from Opinium showing only a 9-point lead for the Conservatives, but the other polls that weekend showed a 21-point lead, in line with the general trend over the preceding weeks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-60774518568062912752017-04-27T13:12:13.829+00:002017-04-27T13:12:13.829+00:00What happens when May, with her three figure major...What happens when May, with her three figure majority in the Commons, fails to produce an acceptable accord with the EU?<br /><br />Remembering that voters in their eighteens to late forties were in a majority favouring Remain, and that Remain lost not even by one million votes, she may pull off a big majority in the 2017 election but it will be an alliance of grievances that cannot be sated by anything but a humiliating climbdown by the EU.<br /><br />The pressgang want out of the ECJ because they believe it wants to introduce a privacy law; that is the core of their hatred of the European project. It is about making the press more money rather than getting their readers richer through improved trade flows.<br /><br />The bigger the vote for May in 2017 the bigger the house of cards that will fall on top of her and her party.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com