tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post5760829014007394453..comments2024-03-18T11:12:51.114+00:00Comments on mainly macro: The Corbyn PhenomenonMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger64125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-33065763108650352282015-09-20T07:44:27.596+00:002015-09-20T07:44:27.596+00:00The Guardian's generally allergic reaction to ...The Guardian's generally allergic reaction to Corbyn is explained by many things, of which the mixed motives of the m.o.r. middle-class left is only one. This is another - 3 or 4 years ago, in the Guardian Weekly, Alan Rusbridger let slip what a close friend of Condoleeza Rice he was, how they both loved Tchaikovski or something ... why it may even have hinted at more than that ... That does rather place him in the outer circles at least of the neo-cons, or at least someone diligently cultivated by them....William Cobbetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14945827695322127007noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-17823495560701412532015-08-15T11:55:20.949+00:002015-08-15T11:55:20.949+00:00Not really - because if 'People's QE' ...Not really - because if 'People's QE' has the inflationary effect one might reasonably expect, given the sudden and significant increase in the supply of money into the real economy, interest rates will have to rise, perhaps sharply. This will hurt businesses and families etc. Conversely, if the government borrows for investment purposes because interest rates are low as a result of 'Standard QE' (and it is therefore cost-effective to do so) the inflationary effect is less pronounced, reducing the likelihood that interest rates will need to go up sharply.<br /><br />'Standard QE' - tool of monetary policy.<br />'People's QE' - tool of fiscal policy. <br /><br />I think it's important to distinguish these concepts viz. their relationship with interest rates, rather than elide them as Corbyn/Murphy and perhaps yourself seem to be doing...Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05849981562319622878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-88027259654927248462015-08-14T14:37:53.908+00:002015-08-14T14:37:53.908+00:00"The goal of QE, at least as we know it, has ..."The goal of QE, at least as we know it, has been to inject demand into the market for gilts, thereby suppressing interest rates..."<br /><br />"... why not just make the case for taking advantage of the low interest rate environment to borrow the money needed for investment?"<br /><br />Do you not see the link there - which makes effectively for "People's QE"?<br />gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44575740063649433912015-08-14T07:42:39.703+00:002015-08-14T07:42:39.703+00:00Before being too critical of Corbyn perhaps ask, a...Before being too critical of Corbyn perhaps ask, after a long Blair government that wasin power during very largely favourable international economic circumstances -(the Great Moderation) they had everything going for them - did they deliver the kind of UK that most people want?<br /><br />No they did not. This is a big reason we get both Corbyn and Farage.<br /><br />You will not find the answers for the kind of economy and society we want with a sticky price rational expectations optimisation model. This let Blair down and will not help anyone else. We need better ideas, engaged with people in other subject areas.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-53373954900090704062015-08-13T21:23:58.167+00:002015-08-13T21:23:58.167+00:00Two important pieces should be added to your analy...Two important pieces should be added to your analysis: i) Scotland was voting in the wake of the Scottish referendum. The SNP had a lot of momentum and ii) Murdoch kept it going. This wiped out Labour's vote in Scotland and pulled it down in England, due to the threat of a Lab-SNP coalition, as well as that of the Liberal Democrats. The Conservative's vote hardly increased in terms of percentage.<br /><br />Ed Milliband didn't do too much wrong in terms of trying to win but not making friends with Murdoch was always going to make things difficult.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-75740301641490174772015-08-13T14:32:51.110+00:002015-08-13T14:32:51.110+00:00"Cameron and Osborne knew they were playing c..."Cameron and Osborne knew they were playing chess"<br /><br />Chess, or poker? Actually, maybe more like spin bowling. Playing fields of Eton and all that....Lost Tangohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17919254475278894888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-10339879034426985542015-08-13T14:29:27.931+00:002015-08-13T14:29:27.931+00:00They could have taken the ceiling off NI contribut...They could have taken the ceiling off NI contributions for a start. That would have raised extra cash without affecting most people. Not enough to clear the deficit for sure, but helpful. Similar applies with Council Tax - past a certain point that's a regressive tax. Probably a local income tax is the fairest way to go, but failing that, adding additional bands would shift the tax burden onto those who could better afford it.Lost Tangohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17919254475278894888noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-15152968270112121232015-08-13T13:13:52.587+00:002015-08-13T13:13:52.587+00:00'misguided ideas about monetary financing'...'misguided ideas about monetary financing' I was wondering if you could say something about why the idea of a 'People's Quantitative Easing' (I think this is what you are referring to) is misguided? Is this a case of what Paul Krugman would describe as 'second-best macroeconomics'? It seem unlikely, but is Jeremy Corbyn going for the politically practical option? I'm not an economist and much of this goes over my head - especially when it comes to QE - but isn't preferable that QE be used to assist much needed public investment?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-77855274240619640792015-08-13T12:06:25.481+00:002015-08-13T12:06:25.481+00:00Simon - I'd be very interested to read your ap...Simon - I'd be very interested to read your appraisal of Corbyn's document 'The Economy in 2020', which was released a couple of weeks ago and is very obviously and heavily influenced by Richard Murphy. <br /><br />For example, take Corbyn's/Murphy's concept of 'People's QE' - i.e. effectively using QE as a tool of fiscal as well as monetary policy. Is this sound macroeconomics? The goal of QE, at least as we know it, has been to inject demand into the market for gilts, thereby suppressing interest rates and preserving the value of sterling. If the BoE uses a form of QE to start buying up debt issued by a National Investment Bank (for the purpose of funding infrastructure investment) the effect would appear to be obviously inflationary - there is no semi-porous membrane between the increased money supply and the real economy. QE as we know it has allowed banks to act as this membrane, through which an unknown (assumed to be small) proportion of QE funds has passed on to the real economy. A National Investment Bank cannot act as a membrane - it would have a specific mandate to use 100% of the QE on earmarked projects. Does that sound about right?<br /><br />In any event - why not just make the case for taking advantage of the low interest rate environment to borrow the money needed for investment? In the spin war you describe, surely this approach is more likely to win over those sceptical of Labour's fiscal prudence than 'People's QE'.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05849981562319622878noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-60496358175678660462015-08-13T11:47:27.128+00:002015-08-13T11:47:27.128+00:00The Tories should have no credibility on either of...The Tories should have no credibility on either of these - immigration and the deficit. They have not come close to meeting their targets on either. <br /><br />Yet it is Labour that are having to defend their record.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-40616201932502271882015-08-13T11:15:31.234+00:002015-08-13T11:15:31.234+00:00I think Simon's imagined scenario of a tempora...I think Simon's imagined scenario of a temporary Corbyn leadership followed by someone untainted by having been in a more centrist/Tory-lite (insert your own preferred Blairite euphemism) shadow cabinet. People who come to mind as possible winners are Stella Creasy, Dan Jarvis, Keir Starmer, any of whom could take up a position to the left of the current non-Corbyn candidates but be less easily attacked by the press and Conservatives than Corbyn.PrimeCrankhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10425503981887041193noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-614018480350625612015-08-13T11:01:02.901+00:002015-08-13T11:01:02.901+00:00I was one of them!I was one of them!Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-79107760198438314372015-08-13T10:58:52.399+00:002015-08-13T10:58:52.399+00:00Perhaps you should read this before saying I am pa...Perhaps you should read this before saying I am part of the problem:<br /><br />http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2015/02/tuition-fees-last-throw-as-election.html<br />Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-59607577243044285482015-08-12T23:45:30.452+00:002015-08-12T23:45:30.452+00:00The Tories really are masters at managing percept...The Tories really are masters at managing perception. People are concerned about immigration because it impacts on jobs (and with some reason - Channel 4 pointed out tonight record inward flows from the EU while unemployment, especially youth unemployment is rising despite recovery). Yet the Tories treatment of very vulnerable refugees entering from Calais and detention centres - really a very small part of the problem when considering their proportion of such migrants entering the country - gives the impression they are tough and in control of the borders. <br /><br />Labour criticised the Tories handling of the asylum seeker's problem- but it only made them look pro-mass immigration. <br /><br />Rather like the way when they criticise the Tories they manage to look fiscally irresponsible.<br /><br />It's very clever management of imagery.<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-82048612366385929672015-08-12T15:18:48.958+00:002015-08-12T15:18:48.958+00:00if corbin has integrity and courage, then you shou...if corbin has integrity and courage, then you shouldn't sell him short, perhaps he can learnAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-73035147887391390892015-08-12T15:15:32.068+00:002015-08-12T15:15:32.068+00:00He doesn't have to be a great leader - few of ...He doesn't have to be a great leader - few of them are - he just needs to get enough capable people to make Shadow Cabinet government to work. He also needs, as you say, some good advisers to develop policy.<br /><br />You've got to hand it to the self-appointed 'illuminati' in the PLP, their delusion is only matched by their overbearing sense of entitlement. Not only have some of them refused to serve with a leader who hasn't been elected, some of them, if MSM are to be believed(?), actually propose to overthrow him if he is. They just don't seem to realise what kind of message this sends to their own members, supporters and the country as a whole.<br /><br />I agree with you on the last bit, too. Our political system isn't built for popular democracy. It is built for Parliamentary democracy. As is abundantly clear, they don't mean the same thing.<br /> Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43926675629657115502015-08-12T12:35:39.001+00:002015-08-12T12:35:39.001+00:00You might have already read this but here is an ar...You might have already read this but here is an article which shows you what proportion of economist might regard 'Osbornomics' as a failure: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/two-thirds-of-economists-say-coalition-austerity-harmed-the-economy-10149410.htmlAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11230264546936875413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76274527105112313352015-08-12T12:31:32.803+00:002015-08-12T12:31:32.803+00:00Don't see this as a contradiction between elim...Don't see this as a contradiction between eliminating the deficit and being anti-austerity. If by reducing the scale of austerity or even reversing it, you cause huge jump in economic growth, then don't you automatically reduce the deficit as a result?<br /><br />I don't think that necessarily targeting the complete elimination of the deficit is a good thing. From my understanding of economic theory, there is no reason why a government can't perpetually run a deficit as long as it and the corresponding debt build up remain reasonably proportional to the size of the economy.<br /><br />However harking back to Simon's points around half truths and winning the spin, I don't think the public would appreciate the nuanced view that there is nothing wrong with running a deficit in perpetuity and so probably much better to state now that your aim is to eliminate the deficit even if this is not quite the case.<br /><br />By the time you get close to eliminating the deficit, it will have dropped down the list of voters and market's concerns (for 'market', read right wing commentators) sufficiently, that nobody would then mind if you then quietly abandoned this aim.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11230264546936875413noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-17547592110202681422015-08-12T12:07:15.188+00:002015-08-12T12:07:15.188+00:00Response to the Corbyn Phenomenon:
https://jodatu...Response to the Corbyn Phenomenon:<br /><br />https://jodatu.wordpress.com/2015/08/12/response-to-the-corbyn-phenomenon/Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45181587474208648602015-08-12T11:28:57.492+00:002015-08-12T11:28:57.492+00:00Isn't it nice to see some people having a civi...Isn't it nice to see some people having a civilised debate about this!<br /><br />Great post, though I share reservations about moving the Overton window whilst out of power. The main problem for the parliamentary Labour mainstream is that, after the Blair/Brown years, their members no longer trust them to do it whilst in power. It's hard for a party to operate whilst they are so discredited with their core supporters.<br /><br />But spot on on Labour's defeat on spin and their weakness in opposition. But I'd suggest much of this was as much to do with fear of party splits on contentious issues (welfare, immigration, etc.) as much as fear of the press.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-61565798781809219212015-08-12T11:18:18.318+00:002015-08-12T11:18:18.318+00:00Gobanian
I'd certainly concede that the desir...Gobanian<br /><br />I'd certainly concede that the desire to win (and thereby do anything at all) has been lost.SpinningHugonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39685819677208823752015-08-12T11:05:55.846+00:002015-08-12T11:05:55.846+00:00"So when they had to raise taxes to pay for e..."So when they had to raise taxes to pay for extra NHS spending, they used national insurance. But even then, so frightened were they of the higher taxation charge, they increased it by too little, which alone probably led to the mild excess deficit in 2007."<br />Could you expand on this Simon? What is an "excess deficit"? How much should they have raised taxes?Randomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04445772572707818311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-11385851508945323642015-08-12T10:22:39.482+00:002015-08-12T10:22:39.482+00:00NewsThump says it all:
http://newsthump.com/2015/...NewsThump says it all:<br /><br />http://newsthump.com/2015/08/12/corbyn-boost-after-condemnations-from-dreadful-people/Johnmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14763363660123520529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4710234366494402892015-08-12T10:19:34.433+00:002015-08-12T10:19:34.433+00:00Cameron/Osborne have clearly demonstrated they can...Cameron/Osborne have clearly demonstrated they can move to meet their need.<br />Labour have demonstrated they are not. Further, it is also clear there is nowhere for them to move to, to become electable. Corbyn may well be a good interim leader, but there is nobody there to take over from him. The current labour leadership battle is, apart from Corbyn, more to do with the various peoples egos' than any hope of becoming an elected government.<br />Elections are more to do with being the best of a bad choice now. Just look at our elected reps.....75% are millionaires....obviously, they are going to know jack-s### about living on the breadline. Johnmhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14763363660123520529noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-25668827570609312862015-08-12T09:11:33.571+00:002015-08-12T09:11:33.571+00:00Apologies for an unusually large number of typos i...Apologies for an unusually large number of typos in this one. Currently helping look after my 2 year old granddaughter, but I guess its a bit unfair to blame her!Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.com