tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post5875010446657098250..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: On not being politically partisanMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-86752182076101326452015-04-28T15:04:37.536+00:002015-04-28T15:04:37.536+00:00I read papers for the information they contain, ra...I read papers for the information they contain, rather than the opinions they express. Of course the Guardian is partisan, although not in the same league as the right wing press at the moment. However it does contain a lot of useful information on social issues that I would not get otherwise. Given my job, the FT is the paper I could not do without.<br /><br />The Miliband is dangerous thing I just cannot see, but you can give me your reasons if you like. But I think the presumption you initially made that my politics might 'explain' my economics can be a very dangerous attitude to apply to everyone. Of course there are many economists for whom that is true, but I suspect at least of many if not more for whom it is not. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43752924376991685642015-04-28T14:39:30.624+00:002015-04-28T14:39:30.624+00:00I am perfectly happy to be educated (hence I am re...I am perfectly happy to be educated (hence I am reading your blog), although I don't really the word "influenced". I don't read either the Telegraph or the Guardian as both a far too partisan for my tastes (in fact the Guardian seems to have a per article quota for anti-Tory jibes regardless of the subject matter). I read the FT, Economist and New Yorker (make of that what you will) and strive to ignore as much of the party politics in my beliefs as possible. The conservatives are pretty hopeless; Labour with Miliband in charge is potentially dangerous for the country (IMO). In any event, I was not trying to insult you, merely draw attention to the fact that most people at least (perhaps you are the exception) read things that support their pre-conceived notions. It's all about the premise of the debate/question I guess... <br />Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16221275580249546847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-64456328538128721372015-04-28T13:13:33.523+00:002015-04-28T13:13:33.523+00:00Most newspapers are pay walled, but the Guardian i...Most newspapers are pay walled, but the Guardian is not. True, I tend to read more Guardian articles than Telegraph articles (although I link to both), but that is partly because the degree of political bias is less in the former. I would link much more to the FT if it was free. I have no party political loyalties.<br /><br />But I regard your accusation that I allow my judgement as an economist to be influenced by political considerations to be an insult. Can you show me one example where that is true. Take the mediamacro myths series for example. One example. Could it perhaps be that you do not want to be influenced by the facts and analysis I set out there, because of your own political loyalties? Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-24678117651601377772015-04-28T12:31:40.800+00:002015-04-28T12:31:40.800+00:00*your (political) loyalties *your (political) loyalties Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16221275580249546847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-53975193459347422742015-04-28T12:29:28.212+00:002015-04-28T12:29:28.212+00:00The fact that such a high proportion of the articl...The fact that such a high proportion of the articles you link to come from the Guardian tells me all I need to know about where you (political) localities lie, whether or not you acknowledge your own bias...Hughhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16221275580249546847noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-35386675987013479932015-04-14T18:00:48.481+00:002015-04-14T18:00:48.481+00:00"Nor will I avoid expressing an opinion on vo..."Nor will I avoid expressing an opinion on voting behaviour: it seems abundantly clear to me that a future Labour government would produce outcomes that are closer to the views expressed in this blog than a future Conservative government, and that those on the left who argue that ‘they are both the same’ are seriously misguided. This is issue based politics, and we need more of it."<br /><br />Well, everybody who read your blog knows that you are a centrist/ left-liberal / progressive economist. So don't be shy about it. You do like the Labour Party and do dismiss more leftists parties, not at least because they dare to point out that most centre left parties in the Western world are more neoliberal than progressive.<br /><br />Now ironically I am a left-liberal economist myself but unlike you I realize that centre left parties are no options. You cannot seriously claim to be against austerity and claim to care about climate change while you propose / imply that people should vote for Labour and not do something more radical.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-38178002726084890632015-02-20T14:15:37.339+00:002015-02-20T14:15:37.339+00:00Partisanship has its place in being friendly with ...Partisanship has its place in being friendly with members of one's tribe, comforting them that you are one of "them," and as a means to pursue specific ends.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28116253942345064632015-02-18T09:26:46.022+00:002015-02-18T09:26:46.022+00:00That is not a satisfactory answer, not by a long s...That is not a satisfactory answer, not by a long shot.Andreas Patersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06431120459465519240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28059342850900507432015-02-17T20:54:11.417+00:002015-02-17T20:54:11.417+00:00In SWL's policies. Inflation of 4% is what he ...In SWL's policies. Inflation of 4% is what he wants.Read his posts.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39686737166935573742015-02-17T20:51:24.083+00:002015-02-17T20:51:24.083+00:00Experience.Experience.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-91747846744479412732015-02-17T11:48:33.004+00:002015-02-17T11:48:33.004+00:00Why do you apologise for introspection? Introspec...Why do you apologise for introspection? Introspection is a good thing. Economists rarely seem to think about how they think, or about the limits of what we can know about a hugely complex system, or about why different economists reach very different conclusions from the same evidence, or about why other people don’t seem to understand economics, or about why other people don’t trust economists. I also thought that your post on how you found it difficult to write for a non-academic audience was both interesting and thoughtful.<br /><br />On this post, I think that political bias has to be seen in the context of what you are trying to achieve with your blog. One lesson you learn in business is that you need to understand your audience before you make an argument you want them to find persuasive.<br /><br />For example, if you want an audience of left-wingers then your political bias is a positive. However, left-wingers would vote for economic stimulus even if you didn’t make an economic argument, so you would not be changing any minds.<br /><br />On the other hand, if you want to change minds then your audience needs to include right-wingers as those are the minds you need to change. However, your political bias will then be an obstacle as right-wingers will argue that “well he would say that as he is a left-winger” and will not listen further to your argument. <br /><br />All arguments on the macro-economy are selective in terms of what they include and exclude. For example, a scientist might point out that most economic progress is driven by advances in science and technology. The industrial revolution happened when it did because of scientific advances rather than economic theory. They might suggest that the most effective economic policy would encourage scientific R&D and focus education on areas which encourage entrepreneurialism and risk taking. From this perspective, your arguments are mostly irrelevant.<br /><br />Of course, you might argue that my scientist has a very narrow and biased perspective, and you would be right. However, you might want to consider whether others might say the same about your perspective which focuses almost exclusively on a very small number of economic measures and levers.Jamienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44766374582661882312015-02-17T10:08:46.650+00:002015-02-17T10:08:46.650+00:00Anonymous16 February 2015 at 09:25 - I do not thin...Anonymous16 February 2015 at 09:25 - <em>I do not think fiscal policy can solve the problems of a recession at the lower zero bound. The effectiveness of the tools is limited</em><br /><br />What model are you using to justify that statement? What evidence backs it up? What are your policy proposals.<br /><br />On disinflation, most textbooks I've read conclude that the policies for achieving disinflation (with a view to reducing inflation to a lower level) is a costly process that generally lowers output and raises unemployment. In the current situation this cost looks like a possible risk but it is asymmetric, the losses from maintaining the status quo appear both larger and more certain.Andreas Patersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06431120459465519240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-51617321286681135202015-02-16T20:05:29.069+00:002015-02-16T20:05:29.069+00:00Fair play on the Cameron quote, that is dishonest,...Fair play on the Cameron quote, that is dishonest,SpinningHugonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-71345715977448808422015-02-16T19:06:42.226+00:002015-02-16T19:06:42.226+00:00And the threat of inflation is where?And the threat of inflation is where?gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-62130166468600886082015-02-16T17:31:59.681+00:002015-02-16T17:31:59.681+00:00Simon Wren-Lewis always mentions the human cost of...Simon Wren-Lewis always mentions the human cost of austerity but not of inflation.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42013072536495028682015-02-16T17:25:06.689+00:002015-02-16T17:25:06.689+00:00Simon Reynolds16 February 2015 at 02:46
I do not ...Simon Reynolds16 February 2015 at 02:46<br /><br />I do not think fiscal policy can solve the problems of a recession at the lower zero bound. The effectiveness of the tools is limited.<br /><br />That being so, fiscal policy can be better or worse. That can be cured through an act of parliament. Unfortunately, that will not solve all the problems SWL thinks can be cured by it.<br /><br />That point stands even without mentioning Zimbabwe. But aren't we allowed to mention its central bank? Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-91572194476447635712015-02-16T16:36:32.597+00:002015-02-16T16:36:32.597+00:00"I am afraid I think that is nonsense, and wi..."I am afraid I think that is nonsense, and will just reassure S W-L that those who don't entirely agree are fools."<br /><br />This implied criticism of SWL is odd given that you are much more dismissive than he is of those that hold different views.Samhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06743143177414830201noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-55656070611217633652015-02-16T15:33:55.164+00:002015-02-16T15:33:55.164+00:00Well, no - because now he's inflicting cruelty...Well, no - because now he's inflicting cruelty on people without even having a purpose.<br />Abandoning the target of a policy but allowing the harmful effects of that policy to continue are not praiseworth actions, in my opinion.<br />Nor is it a matter for praise that he has not made matters worse - especially when we know he intends to do just that, if the Conservatives win the general election.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-22343149650902863142015-02-16T13:54:06.637+00:002015-02-16T13:54:06.637+00:00I'm not really sure what you are trying to say...I'm not really sure what you are trying to say here. That I am "oblivious to the human cost of the policies involved." I just do not see how you can conclude that from anything I wrote. (You could also read this: http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/08/measuring-cost-of-austerity.html)<br /><br />The fact that Osborne abandoned his 2010 target for current balance in 2015 does not mean the impacts of what he had already done, or what he continued to do, suddenly stopped. What it does mean is that he avoided cutting further to meet his originally target, which given the alternative that he tried to meet that target, has to be a good thing surely.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-7761124844771351302015-02-16T13:31:31.057+00:002015-02-16T13:31:31.057+00:00When you wrote, in your article about Nicola Sturg...When you wrote, in your article about Nicola Sturgeon's speech, "It is odd to criticise the policy of fiscal austerity, and at the same time complain that the government has failed to meet its own 2010 fiscal target. It would be more logical to praise the government for abandoning its 2010 target," I made an article on Vox Political out of the fact that you seemed oblivious to the human cost of the policies involved.<br />On reading your piece, it seemed bizarre that you would suggest the Coalition had abandoned its fiscal target when the measures it had introduced - that have caused a great deal of suffering - were still in place.<br />The conclusion I reached was that I did not think it was intentional; that you might have mentioned it, had a few actual politicians done so; that perhaps it indicates a certain blindness to the realities of the current situation - economics is not and end in itself.<br />Was I right?<br />I do think it needs to be recognised that there is a human level to economic decisions. Osborne's cuts - most obviously to social security - have had a huge impact on a section of society whose economic contribution may not be recognised but still exists. Very few people sit around like vegetables; most find something they can do that eases the burden on others around them, if nothing else. That feeds back into the system but if you don't recognise the harm that economic policies cause to these real people, does it follow that you don't recognise the good they do either?<br />For the record, I'm surprised anyone has suggested you are partisan with your articles.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-81059159721382264952015-02-16T12:28:02.726+00:002015-02-16T12:28:02.726+00:00Ok. Perhaps you could point me to a statement wher...Ok. Perhaps you could point me to a statement where Cameron, for example, has said "The UK was on brink of bankruptcy in 2010".<br /><br />"There is no money left" was said, in a note as a joke, by the outgoing Liam Byrne to his successor, Laws, as Chief Secretary to the Treasury. None of the people you accuse of saying it have said any such thing.<br /><br />It is, of course, a bit of a problem if you are going to accuse others of making dishonest statements if the claims that you make about them are not, in fact, true.<br />SpinningHugonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-65196917037066629642015-02-16T10:46:42.754+00:002015-02-16T10:46:42.754+00:00@Gastro George
Good point -- any mention of Zimba...@Gastro George<br /><br />Good point -- any mention of Zimbabwe or Weimar, and it's time to stop reading.<br /><br />@Anonymous 15 February 2015 at 23:12<br /><br />Above, you criticize S W-L as follows: "You truly believe the government has the tools to bring about the results you wish for."<br /><br />and now you say: "The idea that it is easier than countering bad fiscal policy is manifest nonsense: All it takes is an act of parliament."Simon Reynoldsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-91687725110495454872015-02-16T10:38:24.024+00:002015-02-16T10:38:24.024+00:00@SpinningHugo
"Unfortunately it also means t...@SpinningHugo<br /><br />"Unfortunately it also means that every person who has been Chancellor in my lifetime, and every person who could plausibly be Chancellor was and is unfit for that office."<br /><br />I think you're wrong. You can only know the answer to the fit / unfit question after seeing how the person acts in that office. Not going to argue about it though. You can think what you like.<br /><br />What concerns me more is that the people who are most responsible for the UK's economic policy -- Osborne, Cameron, Clegg, Alexander -- make dishonest statements (they are clearly false, but said as if they are true) and base their policies on such ideas, for example:<br /><br />"The UK was on brink of bankruptcy in 2010."<br /><br />"There is no money left." <br /> <br />This is like saying that:<br /><br />" Coventry City won the FA Cup in 2010."<br /><br />Simon Reynoldsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-65797488984838867582015-02-16T09:37:27.738+00:002015-02-16T09:37:27.738+00:00The mention of Zimbabwe in economic blogs should b...The mention of Zimbabwe in economic blogs should be subject to Godwin's Law.gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-92150452148116560792015-02-16T07:31:39.871+00:002015-02-16T07:31:39.871+00:00James in London certainly went off at the deep end...James in London certainly went off at the deep end, but that doesn't help <br />S W-L much:<br /><br />If you say 2+2=3 and are then criticized by someone who says 2+2=5, then you are still wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com