tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post6106855526098032275..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Where Labour went wrongMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-1759515581750408852015-06-21T10:22:40.842+00:002015-06-21T10:22:40.842+00:00Random20 June 2015 at 14:47
Not with Independent ...Random20 June 2015 at 14:47<br /><br />Not with Independent central Banks, which are more or less becoming the rule.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-38820681575351770092015-06-21T10:19:34.327+00:002015-06-21T10:19:34.327+00:00Random20 June 2015 at 14:47
alienfromzog20 June 20...Random20 June 2015 at 14:47<br />alienfromzog20 June 2015 at 05:29<br /><br />You're on your best way to Labour's next defeat.<br /><br />Voters dislike more public debt, Inflation, and like strong currencies (see Krugman's last).<br /><br />How do you explain that countries following such policies have got along quite well?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-72735335827202510572015-06-20T21:56:42.255+00:002015-06-20T21:56:42.255+00:00"subsidised fecklessness and the failure to d..."subsidised fecklessness and the failure to differentiate between deserving and undeserving poor, "<br />Despite the propaganda, the vast majority of the unemployed want to work.<br />The solution is to provide jobs. That is much better than welfare. A Job Alternative Guarantee at the living wage to eliminate shite jobs. And to deal with monopolies and rentier issues. Also restricting open immigration to a country with similar scheme/social infrastructure.<br />The best way to assess "fecklessness" is to offer the poor a job <br />There are ways to try and appear pro market and not too left wing but not Blairite.<br />The vast majority of the British public support nationalisation too.<br />It should be noted Brown won the 2005 election and during his later years Blair was unpopular. There was a boost in mid-2007 until the crisis.Randomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04445772572707818311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-82016389647002184602015-06-20T21:47:04.959+00:002015-06-20T21:47:04.959+00:00Households are currency users. Governments in most...Households are currency users. Governments in most cases is a currency issuer. Big difference.Randomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04445772572707818311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42487340249765530972015-06-20T13:22:44.637+00:002015-06-20T13:22:44.637+00:00"But why did so many people believe that aust..."But why did so many people believe that austerity was the right policy in the first place?"<br /><br />Because the British people have a long-standing distaste, broken only by a 1950s to 1970s historical aberration, for tax-and-spend policies, large-scale redistributive measures (or "predistributive" as Miliband would say), big-government interference, subsidised fecklessness and the failure to differentiate between deserving and undeserving poor, all of which policies are the bulwark of the Labour programme (albeit in theory if not in practice). The sincerely held belief by many left-wingers that Britain had changed forever from the nineteenth century free-trade, night-watchman goverment nation that it has been since the Mercantilist Revolution have proved ill-founded, I am happy to say. <br /><br />Macro-Economic arguments, especially if "mainly" focused on as in this blog, have an unfortunate propensity to miss the wood for the trees: even if it does provide a temporary (and I would argue largely synthetic) fillip to the national economy, supposedly Keynesian measures to accelerate economic growth via expansion of the size of the government are profoundly disliked by a decent subset of the British (and even more profoundly, the English) people, who prefer the size and interventionary powers of the government to be kept to a minimum. No amount of crying about "austerity" will change that, and unless the Labour party reverts to its Blairite sheep's clothing it will not win a General Election for the foreseeable future. <br /><br />It used to be a truism, even if it has now been forgotten by many: Britain, and especially England, is in the main a small-c conservative country. Labour must either shape up to match, or ship out. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-69883011000984107862015-06-20T12:29:49.345+00:002015-06-20T12:29:49.345+00:00What? The economy as a whole is totally different ...What? The economy as a whole is totally different to a household. Is your problem the truth telling or are you saying economists need to say more?alienfromzoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11204842446369918262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-66814794194614983352015-06-20T09:56:32.694+00:002015-06-20T09:56:32.694+00:00"As long as macroeconomists resort to explana... "As long as macroeconomists resort to explanations of the variety ‘but the economy as a whole is different from households’ the game is lost."<br /><br />Exactly so, and rightly, too. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28851283335898168942015-06-20T09:52:48.809+00:002015-06-20T09:52:48.809+00:00Of course this is not Labour Propaganda. All Labou...Of course this is not Labour Propaganda. All Labour did was to make some mistakes in their campaign. But they are still better than the Tories, aren't they? That's only reasonable, isn't it?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4468288520994288152015-06-20T08:14:56.691+00:002015-06-20T08:14:56.691+00:00A lot of good points here. The basic reason for L...A lot of good points here. The basic reason for Labour failing to convince people on the economy always seeks to come back to the fact that it was offering ‘austerity-lite’ : if you believe austerity is needed, then why would you ever vote for the lite version when the Conservatives or Liberals can give you the real thing ?<br /><br />But why did so many people believe that austerity was the right policy in the first place ? Your article contains a number of paradoxes which point to deeper problems with the way our democracy works, the role of facts and science in developing public policy and how ideas are publicly presented and discussed.<br /><br />For example :<br />“Instead the ‘clearing up the mess’ line was used to blame Labour for damage caused by 2010 austerity. It was complete nonsense, but it worked.” <br />If this is true, then look no further for reasons why Labour did not pursue a different policy. Few parties will be able to resist ‘complete nonsense’ if enough people believe it.<br />Or even more so, given Labour’s obsession with focus groups :<br />“Instead Labour seemed to be constantly triangulating between sensible macroeconomics and what the focus groups were telling them, and thereby producing a policy that failed to convince.” <br />If even focus groups appear to be rejecting sensible policies, then picking them up won’t look like a good strategy to convince people.<br /><br />So fighting against the austerity myth appears a bit desperate : <br />How is it possible for something that is ‘complete nonsense’ to convince millions of people ? And why can’t ‘sensible’ policies’ seem to convince people even in focus groups ?<br />Against that background, few political parties (although the SNP may be an intriguing exception…) will be able to promote sensible policies or resist complete nonsense. The fact that we can even say that about an issue as big as the economy shows that there is something quite dysfunctional in our political process. <br /><br />But it would be worth going a bit deeper into two issues :<br />the role of the media - how are ideas about the economy publicly presented and discussed ? What topics are selected ? How are the questions framed ? <br />the way macroeconomic issues are publicly explained : everyone can understand the ‘maxing-out the credit card’ story. As long as macroeconomists resort to explanations of the variety ‘but the economy as a whole is different from households’ the game is lost. It will surely be possible to find stories which are more accessible to people to explain why alternatives to austerity are right.<br />ttamalanoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-72470630016369619842015-06-20T07:13:42.218+00:002015-06-20T07:13:42.218+00:00You must be very, very confused. Referring back to...You must be very, very confused. Referring back to that blog 'faith based macro', nowhere does swl claim 'no new austerity in the U.S. In 2013'. He takes sumner apart for his nonsensical analysis, and sumner claiming austerity started in 2013! Swl replied to you back then and clarified this point, yet you still make the risible claims.<br />Incidentally I also replied to you in the comments section, destroying your ridiculous claim that mon pol had offset the austerity impact, which of course it hadn't as the data shows. I don't really wish to ridicule but when someone is so deluded and wrong, making false claims etc, and continues to do even after they have shown to be incorrect, it is difficult not to.Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01453060744510427275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44291701617000252212015-06-20T06:41:29.032+00:002015-06-20T06:41:29.032+00:00I notice the Danes have moved from centre-left to ...I notice the Danes have moved from centre-left to centre-right. You might find some similar policy problems of the centre-left in Denmark and the centre-left in Britain which would lead the electorate to move right in both countries.amnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-62237263335013743632015-06-20T06:25:07.264+00:002015-06-20T06:25:07.264+00:00I have to admit that I am finding the leadership c...I have to admit that I am finding the leadership campaign uninspiring. Osborne, I think is ruthlessly exploiting the inward-looking of his opponents. I haven't yet heard anything from the leader candidates that makes me think Labour will fight back effectively. Although the deputy leadership candidates give me more hope.<br /><br />Labour appear to be paralysed by the fact that they have failed to counter this deeply unfair narrative. <br /><br />I am not completely despairing though. Osborne is an idiot. He may well be a very clever idiot but an idiot nonetheless. (see http://alienfromzog.blogspot.co.uk/2015/06/osbornomics.html) There is a better than even chance that he will scupper the economy again. I think, like 2011-12, there will be opportunities in 12-18 months time as the wheels come off. Labour must be ready with a coherent argument and a fight.<br /><br />I am not yet convinced Labour will be ready but they must be: It is of vital - even existential - importance for the party. It is only slightly less important for the country.<br /><br />AFZalienfromzoghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11204842446369918262noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-56331268698907423542015-06-20T06:15:45.148+00:002015-06-20T06:15:45.148+00:00I have a BS detector with politicians - whenever t...I have a BS detector with politicians - whenever they say "We need to get tough on X, W, or Z" that means 90 percent of the time they're gonna take us over a cliff. You wanna be a tough guy, pol? Chuck the focus groups and tell the truth. That's being tough not saying you're tough.<br /><br />One note as an American - there has been massive austerity at the state level in certain states run by wingbats; the most striking example is Kansas, where austerity has rendered it a fiscal basket case, gutting schools, exploding the budget deficit, so bad it literally made the right wing governor cry (not making this up). Kansas is America's Greece without the good seafood.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07944928931697915829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-84128149885770071002015-06-20T05:42:50.912+00:002015-06-20T05:42:50.912+00:00In the blog "Faith Based Macroeconomics"...In the blog "Faith Based Macroeconomics" SWL took a chart of G in the US to claim, against everyone else, not just Scott Sumner although he was the target of the ridicule, that there had been no new austerity in the US in 2013. When I take a chart of G in the UK and it shows no dip, and in SWL's terms no new austerity, I am ridiculed by SWL and his commentators. Come on guys!James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44733183925811109772015-06-20T05:05:33.481+00:002015-06-20T05:05:33.481+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-83036755863829076062015-06-19T19:54:32.392+00:002015-06-19T19:54:32.392+00:00You'll be equally as quick to condemn 3/4 of t...You'll be equally as quick to condemn 3/4 of the national press as Tory propaganda, yes?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-11178446140367700402015-06-19T19:52:55.455+00:002015-06-19T19:52:55.455+00:00Ah, so it really should be 'James in cloud-cuc...Ah, so it really should be 'James in cloud-cuckoo land'Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01453060744510427275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32269498113135122982015-06-19T19:52:17.298+00:002015-06-19T19:52:17.298+00:00Those supposed two million jobs are largely made u...Those supposed two million jobs are largely made up of the people on workfare (work for dole) and the people on the end of IDS' benefit sanction regime. Both groups are removed from the unemployment figures, IIRC.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-12710875550255679712015-06-19T19:52:05.266+00:002015-06-19T19:52:05.266+00:00Hello Simon. I hope you'll humor me by answeri...Hello Simon. I hope you'll humor me by answering a quick off-topic question about the Keynesian model. In a <a href="http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29692" rel="nofollow">recent post</a> Scott Sumner described it as such:<br /><br />"1. Keynesian: Fiscal austerity is contractionary at the zero bound regardless of whether you have an independent central bank."<br /><br />He then presented a number of scatter plots with regressions. According to your interpretation of the Keynesian model:<br /><br />Does it make sense to include individual countries in the Euro Area (like Greece) which were at the zero lower bound from 2009 to 2014 even though they don't have an independent monetary policy? Scott's description sounds to me like a state qualifies for inclusion if and only if it's at the ZLB. However there's some <a href="http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=29692#comment-392259" rel="nofollow">question about this.</a>Tom Brownhttp://www.google.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-86536022465982205512015-06-19T17:11:22.970+00:002015-06-19T17:11:22.970+00:00No, its a much more serious problem. He believes w...No, its a much more serious problem. He believes what he reads in Scott Sumner's posts (details in my next)Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-77912517729956562142015-06-19T17:00:41.863+00:002015-06-19T17:00:41.863+00:00Poor, clueless James. Must be doing it for a bet.....Poor, clueless James. Must be doing it for a bet...Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01453060744510427275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-30910327469518699142015-06-19T13:09:39.575+00:002015-06-19T13:09:39.575+00:00Yes, that should have been unemployment. Now corre...Yes, that should have been unemployment. Now corrected - thanks.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-23230955193527472832015-06-19T12:34:34.525+00:002015-06-19T12:34:34.525+00:00I always through the phrase double-dip recession w...I always through the phrase double-dip recession was a problem - it frames the period as a single crisis with a single source. Instead Labour should have talked about two recessions - put there hands up for the first " insufficient regulation" and a second recession caused by austerity.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-37201551755490607042015-06-19T12:06:11.332+00:002015-06-19T12:06:11.332+00:00Firstly let me say it was a very strange election ...Firstly let me say it was a very strange election result , from the point of view of swings and vote shifts, no one would have expected the Liberal vote would totally collapse and go almost entirely to the Tories , no one would expect that the Ukip support would come almost all from Labour and that all the Tory Ukip voters would return to the Tory fold, finally until it happened did any one really think Scotland would really only return one Labour, Tory and Liberal MP. Fear and pensioners won the day for the Tories in England and even Wales.<br />I think that Labour under Ed were just a very poor , for the entire 5 years in opposition. They missed easy goals against the Tories on countless occasions , such as failing to make much of the Chancellors best man getting preferential access to Post Office shares making 25 million on the deal and selling the lot. They as you say failed to counter the Tory propaganda that they crashed not only the UK but the world economy , you can read the posts today still in the Guardian and even the Independent article you quote , the believe has past in to the woodwork not sure if it can be removed ever. It was however worse than that, they really put forward very little new or visionary. I read a figure that manufacturing shrank from 19% to 10% from 97-07 , that alone if true should make Labour hang it's head in shame, since most of it's natural support would tend to work there.<br />I think that both the main parties Tory and Labour are passed their "sell by date", they represent a 19th century vision of society, the rentiers (aka the 1%) against the working rest (aka the 99%). If nothing else Labour always stood for getting their fair share of the national income for the 99%( to endless rentier taunts of envy), they seem to have lost that in favour of whats perceived as only supporting a bunch of feckless fools, highlighted in reality TV programs like Benefits Britain. There are certainly enough people out there in society who are angry and dispossessed able to forge a new party or take an old one in a new direction, the young , students , those victims of the Buy to Let baby boom pensioners who had it all for nothing and gave nothing to their children and grand children but debt so they could live a comfortable unearned retirement, the entrepreneur struggling to get access to finance to grow their businesses, the greens , those who think TIPP will be and globalization has been a disaster for everyone in the west but the capital owners, those who realize that in a consumption society if you your wages do not keep up with productivity gains you can buy less and a downward spiral starts which benefits no one except the 1%. The party needs to speak again to the people who get up every morning for 40 years and go to work and keep the whole thing running, , not the people who load us up with 700 trillion dollars of worthless derivatives and financial debt.<br />They need to include experts with vision , one thing the internet has given us is knowledge and access to non MSM propaganda , the party needs to include advisers like yourself, Micheal Hudson, Stiglitz, etc they need an all encompassing new vision , tinkering around the edges will not do any more. <br /><br /> RouterAlnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-51066108132793635552015-06-19T11:56:03.996+00:002015-06-19T11:56:03.996+00:00Please do feel free to point out the flaws in SWL&...Please do feel free to point out the flaws in SWL's analysis. What he's written in this post seems pretty reasonable to me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com