tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post6662668625112790439..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Labour and the deficitMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-63496282451351112362015-09-30T20:58:00.523+00:002015-09-30T20:58:00.523+00:00I'd be keen to see Labour make the point that ...I'd be keen to see Labour make the point that it was Tory free-market deregulation which caused the banking crisis. Ronald Reagan's decomposition of Glass-Steagall and Margaret Thatchers deregulations allowed the collapse of CDOs to undermine retail banking. The banking crisis caused most of the problems we now have. Gordon Brown had little choice but to rescue the banks (although arguably some some have been allowed to fail) or he would have been seen as irresponsible. Both Obama and Osbourne have stimulated their economies, by QE and infrastructure spending etc. but the difference is the USA did not say it was adopting austerity, and use that banner to afflict the afflicted. Labour can be trusted with the economy, always could. It's the Torys who want to maintain conditions for another crash.New Davidnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-33945860569479776772015-09-19T11:27:45.155+00:002015-09-19T11:27:45.155+00:00Labour
Entirely agree with this article, but ...Labour <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Entirely agree with this article, but even more baffling is that Labour are still making the same mistake, taking the same approach now under corbyn, at least if mcdonnells statement are anything to go by. And they must be, I assume. He still thinks Labour can't challenge the tory spin which the voters believe. Hard to see this approach will succeed where it failed before, and for all the same reasons this blog gives. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44196298251214866292015-08-01T14:28:07.905+00:002015-08-01T14:28:07.905+00:00"People want you go about persuading them tha..."People want you go about persuading them that you are right, not try to hoodwink them in to voting for you."<br /><br />If you think that this is the strategy of the modern left you are crazy. The Labour Party are failing because their leaders are spineless and stupid, not because they are slippery. Hoodwinking turkeys in to voting for Christmas is the raison d'être of the Conservative party.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13974644231191262800noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-86040247728332609292015-07-21T20:19:27.423+00:002015-07-21T20:19:27.423+00:00"We cannot argue for a higher minimum wage be..."We cannot argue for a higher minimum wage because that will be seen as anti-market and anti-business - oh wait."<br /><br />Simon, can you really not see the difference between Labour arguing for something and how it would be received and Osborne arguing for it?<br /><br />Tubby Isaacsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-24799226492720706312015-07-21T20:17:40.489+00:002015-07-21T20:17:40.489+00:00Simon, you do underestimate the problem of the med...Simon, you do underestimate the problem of the media and talk as though it would go away if the case was only made more firmly.<br /><br />The problem as I see it is the ageing population and what that means in terms of political views- ie more conservative.<br />Tubby Isaacsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43207591316986138292015-07-20T06:30:27.223+00:002015-07-20T06:30:27.223+00:00Oh dear we appear to be descending into petty squa...Oh dear we appear to be descending into petty squabbles, the refuge of those with no desire to change our corrupt monetary, privately owned, world banking scam.<br />If you do not acknowledge the fraudulent nature of every bank loan, or understand how we are all victims of the banks, take a look at: Bank Loan Fraud - What Really Happens.<br />After reading the article, then pause to consider this: Signed Promissory Notes pledging to repay bank loans, are legal tender, however using the Fractional reserve banking system, our PN is used as security by the bank to fund a further ten identical loans. Having done so and received an additional ten PNS from the borrowers we have acted as security for, the bank sells our PN for cash (securitisation) and pockets it.<br />Until we ban usury and private banks, we will always be in debt to the banksters.angryoldgithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12223116114691794546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-18726402816659866842015-07-18T10:49:49.323+00:002015-07-18T10:49:49.323+00:00S W-L: " ... it is incredulous that Labour is...S W-L: " ... it is incredulous that Labour is not opposing them."<br />I am incredulous. You are incredible. They are batshit crazy.James Wimberleyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10039653150309817093noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-57600672281280346672015-07-17T13:21:51.818+00:002015-07-17T13:21:51.818+00:00Not sure what reality you inhabit but one of the o...Not sure what reality you inhabit but one of the outstanding features of Labours 5 years in opposition was their reluctance and meekness towards the Tory narrative...avoiding talking about the economy (other than a few murmurs of dissent towards a tsunami of deceit, misinformation and Tory re-writing of history) was a central feature of Labour's time in opposition. <br />In the 12 months leading up the election, how often did they quote figures and the findings of numerous studies which estimated the enormous losses to GDP and lives blighted thanks to austerity policies? They certainly did not attempt to raise awareness of the fact that Osborne in fact eased up massively on his austerity agenda during 2012 - not at the time or in the months/years after. Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01453060744510427275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-59672337916168614092015-07-16T22:37:17.254+00:002015-07-16T22:37:17.254+00:00I can envisage a way around that issue: amend the ...I can envisage a way around that issue: amend the policy such that any family that goes from not claiming any child tax credits to low income would be eligible for tax credits for all their children, regardless of how many they have. That would discourage low income households from having many children, without penalising families that tried to be socially responsible before job loss struck.<br /><br />That said, there will always be people who have more kids than they can afford and it just doesn't sit well with me that those children would suffer poverty.<br /><br />The best solution would be to change mindsets through education and engender aspirations such that we no longer need to discuss cutoffs. Sadly, that's a tough ask.<br /><br />Thanks for the reply and keep up the good work.<br /><br />SAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-49415808205729107812015-07-16T15:55:37.458+00:002015-07-16T15:55:37.458+00:00The argument against the benefit cap is that it is...The argument against the benefit cap is that it is completely arbitrary and makes no account of people's actual needs. I don't disagree that people shouldn't need to claim these kind of amounts in benefits but that's down to the shortage of social housing, and the housing market being screwed in general, rather than some kind of failing on the part of those receiving the benefits. andrew adamshttp://www.mutantblog.co.uknoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42081267546155315592015-07-16T14:57:40.001+00:002015-07-16T14:57:40.001+00:00The evidence I have seen is that there may be a sm...The evidence I have seen is that there may be a small incentive effect. Whether that is worth impoverishing children is another matter. But consider someone who has 3 children because they have a well paid job. They then lose that job, and have to accept a low paid job. They cannot unmake the decision to have a third child. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-12169563431792305582015-07-16T13:07:50.669+00:002015-07-16T13:07:50.669+00:00I think that is a re-writing of history. Miliband ...I think that is a re-writing of history. Miliband and Balls were quite clear. That the argument didn't work (and you think it should) is not evidence that it was not made.<br /><br />Most people don't have the time to devote to thinking about these questions. They judge who is right by the general performance of the economy at the time. that may be frustrating, but that is democracy.SpinningHugonoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-3941654690924498532015-07-16T10:16:03.294+00:002015-07-16T10:16:03.294+00:00I'm using 'Tories' as shorthand for &#...I'm using 'Tories' as shorthand for 'right wing principles / ideology'. It would have been rather hard for Labour to argue that light touch regulation was the product of this ideology when they were responsible for it.JDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-6692640849736504882015-07-16T08:02:58.446+00:002015-07-16T08:02:58.446+00:00No, I didn't say that at all. I was saying tha...No, I didn't say that at all. I was saying that the light touch financial services regulation and Basel regulations aslowing banks to decide on their own capital requirements for certain classes of loan were influenced by the dominant academic thinking, which was undoubtedly very much of the laissez-faire variety. The Efficient Market Hypothesis was very much at the centre of global regulators' thoughts. Come on - please don't say I said things I didn't say, that's just juvenile. But if you disagree that extreme "market knows best" principles were at the root of the GFC then I'd be happy to continue. Centuries of financial crises have shown that the market gets carried away and very often extremely so. This isn't e en a left wing theory, it's empirical fact.<br /><br />In case there was ambiguity there should have been quote marks in the "we didn't cause..." bit, to isolate the argument but I thought that was clear enoughAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06235862502318315546noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-24726613234696203822015-07-16T07:43:23.668+00:002015-07-16T07:43:23.668+00:00The point is that they DIDN'T *fight* "on...The point is that they DIDN'T *fight* "on the errors in government fiscal policy in 2010/11". A few murmurs about it, but by and large they avoided the subject thus allowing the Conservatives to spin their own version of events...aided and abetted by 'media macro' for good measure. Simonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01453060744510427275noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4751946453890520572015-07-16T07:37:42.313+00:002015-07-16T07:37:42.313+00:00Well clearly you're more persuasive than me! O...Well clearly you're more persuasive than me! Or perhaps you have a more receptive audience: the concept is of course much easier to sell to left-leaning people. We are all much more receptive to concepts that reinforce our prejudices. But Labour has to sell it to floating voters, which is where the challenge lies.<br /><br />I don't disagree on the media problem. JDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-20513845962452234802015-07-16T07:31:29.589+00:002015-07-16T07:31:29.589+00:00Simon, thank you for the insights in your blog - m...Simon, thank you for the insights in your blog - much appreciated.<br /><br />I agree that too much attention has been heaped on the budget deficit in recent years and that Labour has done a lousy job in tackling the Conservative rhetoric. <br /><br />The part that intrigued me is describing limiting tax credits to two children and reducing the benefit cap as 'terrible policies'. Can anyone please elaborate? <br /><br />On child credits in particular, do people think many low-income families will not respond to the change and have three or more children regardless, thereby pushing child poverty higher (at least in their households)? <br /><br />As someone who is a higher rate tax payer but still is hesitant to have a second child due to stretched finances, I find myself agreeing with the government on this policy. Uncharted territory! <br /><br />SAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8335759940236618302015-07-16T06:20:36.929+00:002015-07-16T06:20:36.929+00:00I disagree that it is such a difficult concept to ...I disagree that it is such a difficult concept to sell. I have had no problem selling the concept to my friends and Family, and I had no problem Learning the concept in High School in the US 20 years ago. <br /><br />I does become problematic to learn when almost all of the media decides to present the household analogy as fact. In my opinion thats the problem, on economic issues most of the media world have become incredibly right wing, I do not know why, and I don´t know what we can do about it. But at least S W-L media macro series was a decent attempt. The Guardian or The Independent should have run that as an educational series.Sigmund1https://www.blogger.com/profile/05882316675588130463noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-71014195705848691832015-07-16T00:29:13.232+00:002015-07-16T00:29:13.232+00:00We didn't cause the crisis, it was the Tories?...We didn't cause the crisis, it was the Tories? You're kidding, right?JDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-73627836184366972802015-07-16T00:24:47.271+00:002015-07-16T00:24:47.271+00:00The question here is not whether the household ana...The question here is not whether the household analogy is or isn't a good analogy. We all agree that it's terrible. But attempts to explain it face major barriers of basic comprehension. It's like trying to win an argument against English creationists by explaining Darwin in French. The problem is that they're not interested in learning French.JDnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-82166894511265676222015-07-16T00:03:24.623+00:002015-07-16T00:03:24.623+00:00The left is typically poorly funded but represent ...The left is typically poorly funded but represent the majority. They need to pick their spots and their message has to be on the money. <br /><br />The left also has the bad habit of trying to be rational. (Simon, I think this includes you. Far, far too rational for politics.) Politics is war. The other side will do ANYTHING to get elected.<br /><br />You've got 15 seconds and 10 words to win an election. My best effort -- Conservative means taking your hard earned retirement and giving it to the rich.<br /><br /><br /><br />BradKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00311675925651145239noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39771186478208912182015-07-15T23:01:11.592+00:002015-07-15T23:01:11.592+00:00«the policies advocated by our blogger (not a prop...«the policies advocated by our blogger (not a property owner) but I don't think it is fair to describe them as universally better than those of the tories: they are better for most, but worse for many.»<br /><br />Or to describe the government's policy as "austerity": it gives the false impression that it means "contractionary" times for everybody, where it instead it is rather "expansionary" for property owners.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-20572589045724230382015-07-15T22:49:42.606+00:002015-07-15T22:49:42.606+00:00I have a pet peeve about politics and macroeconomi...I have a pet peeve about politics and macroeconomics. You often hear right wingers spouting absurd stuff like the Laffer curve or Ayn Rand nonsense . But you never hear about prvivate debt overhang due to housing bubble , lack of demand at the zlb, inflation being below target, etc. Stuff you read blogs like this daily.<br /><br />You never hear pols even try to explain basic macro. Just morality tales. Morality is fine but if your car breaks down it in a blizzard it won't tell you how to fix it to save your family.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07944928931697915829noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-23854337225825192222015-07-15T22:32:49.010+00:002015-07-15T22:32:49.010+00:00Excellent post, as usual. But s/incredulous/incred...Excellent post, as usual. But s/incredulous/incredible/.Allin Cottrellhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13841039670160678066noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-16287134045837620682015-07-15T21:53:44.984+00:002015-07-15T21:53:44.984+00:00Sorry, I meant a move from G towards surplus must ...Sorry, I meant a move from G towards surplus must shift H further into deficit if C and F are fixed(ish)Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06235862502318315546noreply@blogger.com