tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post7868113921382573808..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Ken Rogoff on UK austerityMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8389092203073915722015-02-12T11:37:07.917+00:002015-02-12T11:37:07.917+00:00Hello all,
I am a private lender, i offer loan at...Hello all,<br /><br />I am a private lender, i offer loan at 3% this is a legitimate company with honor and difference we are ready to help you out in any financial problem that you are we offer all type of loan so if you are interested in this loan offer kindly contact us on our email: wagner_firm1@blumail.org<br /><br />Also provide the follow details so that we can proceed with the loan immediately.<br /><br />Name:<br />Amount needed:<br />Duration:<br />country:<br />Purpose of loan:<br />Monthly income:<br />Phone number:<br /><br />Contact us with the above details on our email: wagner_firm1@blumail.org<br /><br />Regards to you all.<br />Mr Wagnerhttp://www.yahoo.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-19647305247554246172014-05-11T16:30:59.993+00:002014-05-11T16:30:59.993+00:00Do you need a loan,We are Legitimate and Reputable...Do you need a loan,We are Legitimate and Reputable money Lender.<br />We are a company with financial assistance.We loan funds out to individuals<br />in need of financial assistance,that have a bad credit or in need of<br />money to pay bills,to invest on business. I want to use this medium to inform<br />you that we render reliable beneficiary assistance as I'll be glad to offer you a<br />loan. Services Rendered include,<br />*Debt Consolidation<br />*Business Loans<br />*Personal Loans<br />Please write back if interested with our interest rate<br />of 0.2%per annual. Upon Response, you'll be mailed a Loan application<br />form E-arabfinancialservice@gmail.com<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-86420161326276808482014-01-17T11:15:47.090+00:002014-01-17T11:15:47.090+00:00Cheap Home Insurance UK- Save up to £78*, the pric...<a href="http://MyMoneyComparison.com" rel="nofollow">Cheap Home Insurance UK</a>- Save up to £78*, the price you pay for your insurance package should be worth it to you. It will provide you with the peace of mind that your home is secure against most or all threats that might affect it. <br />(MyMoneyComparison.com)My Money Comparisonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15062737333867952684noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-75798978139814601982013-10-09T21:40:08.057+00:002013-10-09T21:40:08.057+00:00Are we talking at cross purposes here? I assume th...Are we talking at cross purposes here? I assume that fiscal policy is sound, but just that markets think otherwise for some finite period of time. In which case the ability to finance deficits by printing money is important - in exactly the same way that a central bank can deal with a bank run against a solvent bank. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28177951796787499892013-10-08T14:24:07.375+00:002013-10-08T14:24:07.375+00:00Without the IMF the euro would be history.Without the IMF the euro would be history.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-43837431452766296812013-10-08T12:11:33.422+00:002013-10-08T12:11:33.422+00:00Dear Mr. Musgrave,
I just wanted to agree with yo...Dear Mr. Musgrave,<br /><br />I just wanted to agree with your suspicion that Rogoff might be a charlatan. At least, I think he is either very overrated or has been bought by certain interests in 2008. I have read "This time is different" and the articles that formed the basis of that book. Personally, I believe his works leave a lot to be desired. They disguise themselves as more scientific than they actually are, there's no publication of the raw data, arbitrary division of the data into sub-categories (that foreshadows the 90%-debt limit and the poor averaging), his argument and the provided charts do not result in a satisfying complete picture. There is a missing emphasis on the difference between public and private debt. The book is his introduction into his "the government is always to blame"-argument. Even the subtitle of the book (8 centuries of financial follies) is misleading because only a tiny minority of the country data he actually uses has that kind of historical range. Most of the country data is from the 20th century. He doesn't include the effects of wars which constitute a big part of his inflation years and years of financial distress....<br />It is not a good work.Alexander Sebastian Schulzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15135338616598357444noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-38758633503941767422013-10-08T11:16:09.300+00:002013-10-08T11:16:09.300+00:00"Now pretty well everyone agrees that printin..."Now pretty well everyone agrees that printing money to cover unsustainable budget deficits is inflationary."<br /><br />Ah, the inflation bogeyman.<br /><br />By definition no budget deficit is unsustainable if you have your own currency, since you can print money to fund the budget deficit indefinitely. The argument is therefore not about unsustainable budget deficits, but whether budget deficits are in fact inflationary, in the first place. <br /><br />The simple answer to that is who cares? What's wrong with some inflation. In fact, you need some level of inflation for capitalism to function properly. Furthermore, on an absolute basis inflation is meaningless since incomes would also rise to meet the higher expenses. I'm always perplexed why inflation is always argued from a cost perspective, but people fail to realize that inflation also effects income.<br /><br />I guess the real fear is a bout of hyperinflation, ala Weimar. But, there has never been a case in the history of capitalism of hyperinflation in a sovereign simply due to budget deficits and as everyone knows Weimar was a unique situation (they had debt in foreign currency). I believe economists are smart enough to measure the effects of a budget deficit to ensure smooth inflation, as opposed to the hyper mode.<br /><br />Overall, budget deficits are not to be feared due to some irrational fear of hyperinflation. To the contrary, well design budget deficits, where the government directs funds to projects that have a long-term benefit to the economy, are essential to a well-functioning economy. The problem is really in the name. Budget deficit sounds scary. If they would call it: "Government investment", which is what it really should be, I think the discussion would change dramatically. I've never heard anyone argue against a high ROI investment, because it was inflationary. Sam Fosterhttp://www.casinocapitalism.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-11368849461226108802013-10-07T23:28:03.707+00:002013-10-07T23:28:03.707+00:00"Instead, the depreciation would bring about ..."Instead, the depreciation would bring about the export led recovery everyone would like."<br />In Britain? I would agree on basically any other country, but I just can't see that happening in Britain, at least not to the extend that would be needed.<br />1. There just aren't that many actual British products left. R&R PLC doesn't produce a final product. R&R cars are actually German. Mini is German, the cars are even designed in Germany. Can those even be considered actual British exports? How much is it worth in the long run to just build the cars?<br />2. Jaguar Land Rover is still somewhat British. So let's take them as an example that depreciation would probably not lead to much of a boom. Let's say they are able to sell more cars than they can produce. They want to build a new factory. Every machine that is needed has to be imported, but the investment has become much more expensive due to the depreciation. So the decision to build a new factory is much more risky. British companies would possibly be even less likely to invest in such a scenario. <br />3. For less complex products it seems unlikely that Britain would become competitive with eastern Europe<br /><br />Japan on the other hand does have a functioning industrial sector. The productivity (new production facilities and machines) could easily be increased with their own industry, so the potential exports increase while the cost for the investment remains largely the same. I think that is a very different situation.<br />In less developed countries the investment does not have to be as high since the wages are lower, so they need less automation and are more competitive at selling less complex products.<br /><br />So I am having a hard time imagining a export led recovery in such a scenario in Britain that goes beyond just increasing capacity utilisation. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17717360301386474776noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-68555235729829665432013-10-07T14:22:30.821+00:002013-10-07T14:22:30.821+00:00This comment has been removed by the author.GMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381186427060384554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-27839852962266920852013-10-06T21:56:03.209+00:002013-10-06T21:56:03.209+00:00Professor Wren-Lewis, it'd be interesting to g...Professor Wren-Lewis, it'd be interesting to get your take on this post by Scott Sumner on UK austerity- he makes some points that I believe you've refuted in the past so it'd be nice to get an opposing view. Here's the link:<br /><br />http://www.themoneyillusion.com/?p=24017Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4781155910229779832013-10-06T05:23:50.624+00:002013-10-06T05:23:50.624+00:00Anyone can make an Excel error, but they were clai...Anyone can make an Excel error, but they were claiming a discontinuity/cliff in the relationship between growth and debt, and the location of the Excel error was right at the location of that very discontinuity. No excuse whatsoever not to have caught it.<br /><br />That their conclusion was also entirely due to one data point of their sample is what makes it really damning. I think GMAN is right on the money, so to speak.perfectlyGoodInkhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03909562941005842228noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-34932934440382030332013-10-06T00:26:04.230+00:002013-10-06T00:26:04.230+00:00 What world do some of you folks live in that you... What world do some of you folks live in that you expect constant growth indefinitely? this isnt possible. Some of you also consider it hitting the poor to have austerity, yet this debt by its nature is a MAJOR boon to big banks who takes a cut out of this from a few angles. Then of course all the money going to interest could be covering spending, instead you take a constant bite out of the economy. Study the IMF folks, what they say versus what happens. What international media or your countries media say versus local media in the countries in question. Al,ost all countries who deal with them end up worse off, and the debt is used to then subvert said peoples. The third world has many issues but debt helps keep them down, and forces them to sell off assets such as is happening in greece. Now we have first world nations at the point debts are getting to danger levels and most of you seem to think we can just grow forever out of this? Its an entirely false paradigm. This ken fellow may indeed be a charlatan as well, but krugman was mentioned as if he was sane let alone describing a long term viable paths. The US was also mentioned as a trigger for issues in the UK. You guys realize there is already movements against the dollar as reserve currency right? BRICS nations calling for it for years, IMF already making plans, and trade starting to emerge bypassing the dollar. I mention the IMF because its pretty clear that with the same logic displayed here the IMF is a front for international power players that use the same logic in the comments above to push people into debt that when it fails leave them at the whims of these players, with many fewer options. So many of you think youll hurt the little guy by austerity, but since it cannot be sustained both historical and contemporary examples show us clearly it cannot be sustained indefinitely and when it does eventually fail it will be the less fortunate who are devastated as the wealthy buy up assets at a fraction of their costs in a healthy economy. So you are literally playing right into the super wealthy players hands if you stay on that track. I mention studying the imf in depth because it then becomes clearer how this rhetoric/mindset and eventually debt is such a great tool for them. It apears the first world is already on its knees, not much more to drain from them so now the sights are on the first world. The parasite is eating the mother hosts. Wake up folks, we need to end this scam on a global scale while we still have options. Or keep pretending you will be the first country in history to grow forever, set up so close to the red line that the economy doesnt even need to shrink for major issues but simply slow growth. That is playing with fire to put it mildly. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-74085512800415481092013-10-05T05:17:28.488+00:002013-10-05T05:17:28.488+00:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.English UK Newshttp://www.iparrotpost.co.uk/english-uk-news/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-67584077079089817472013-10-04T17:54:01.506+00:002013-10-04T17:54:01.506+00:00I guess one can always worry about the rains that ...I guess one can always worry about the rains that may end a drought turning into a flood..the Japanese have been seeding the clouds for 25yrs?!?GMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381186427060384554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-19267264652269060692013-10-04T17:52:07.957+00:002013-10-04T17:52:07.957+00:00My discussion of Corsetti and Dedola is here
http:...My discussion of Corsetti and Dedola is here<br />http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/government-default-reserves-and-qe.html<br />I think the paper is more complex than you suggest. But remember the thought experiment here is that this is a temporary market panic, because the government finances are sound. So printing money is also temporary, just like QE. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-29892789947145115482013-10-04T17:48:17.670+00:002013-10-04T17:48:17.670+00:00Rogoff is a liar. See this Huffington article:
ht...Rogoff is a liar. See this Huffington article:<br /><br />http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/02/reinhart-rogoff-austerity_n_3201453.html?show_comment_id=249882228#comment_249882228<br />Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-80329324753698986082013-10-04T17:25:37.143+00:002013-10-04T17:25:37.143+00:00@GMAN - depends on the size of the "uptick&qu...@GMAN - depends on the size of the "uptick".<br /><br />If the government had to print money to cover all maturing debt and additional borrowing the increase in the monetary base would be large relative to pre-QE levels. <br /><br />As argued above, if this increase was perceived to be permanent this would lead to a large increase in inflation. This would almost certainly have larger costs than benefits.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42751913776841619272013-10-04T17:05:51.556+00:002013-10-04T17:05:51.556+00:00Incentives matter. Rogoff does have lucrative rel...Incentives matter. Rogoff does have lucrative relationship with Pete Peterson funded organizations. It is hard to make a man understand something if his job depends upon NOT understanding!<br />Krugman has recently added "you can't always assume people are arguing in good faith"GMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381186427060384554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39363562907422969872013-10-04T16:13:21.639+00:002013-10-04T16:13:21.639+00:00Wouldn't a nice sized uptick in inflation unde...Wouldn't a nice sized uptick in inflation under current conditions be a feature not a bug?GMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381186427060384554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8039731872101308472013-10-04T16:01:06.724+00:002013-10-04T16:01:06.724+00:00Simon,
Nick Rowe responds here:
http://worthwhil...Simon,<br /><br />Nick Rowe responds here:<br /><br />http://worthwhile.typepad.com/worthwhile_canadian_initi/2013/10/twin-debt-equilibria.htmlJamesnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-329400443972188142013-10-04T15:50:56.226+00:002013-10-04T15:50:56.226+00:00To elaborate - the key assumption regarding whethe...To elaborate - the key assumption regarding whether QE removes the need for "austerity as insurance" is whether the increase in the money supply would have to be permanent or not.<br /><br />If there are two equilibria ("run" and "no run") there's no reason to think that the "run" equilibrium can only be temporary. It's true that many examples of "runs" or "panics" are temporary, but that's because they normally instantly provoke default. In the case of a sovereign with access to QE that is not the case - the sovereign can permanently avoid default by increasing the size of the monetary base without limit - but that involves a permanent increase in the money supply (by definition) and hence will lead to higher inflation.<br /><br />Further, there are examples of sovereigns choosing to default on their domestic debt rather than monetise it. One example is the Russian crisis of 1998, I believe Reinhart and Rogoff's book contain more.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-10871900079386276312013-10-04T14:00:25.556+00:002013-10-04T14:00:25.556+00:00Given the consensus of the thread is the real risk...Given the consensus of the thread is the real risk is not to the bond mkt as Rogoff asserts but the currency mkt if makes the case for QE at least in the case of the US even more compelling.<br />Given the diverse nature of the US economy and the fact that it has run large and persistent trade deficits..what is not to like about a little run on the $? The bottom 80% of US pop should almost welcome it.GMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381186427060384554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-59549267556335331962013-10-04T13:47:03.731+00:002013-10-04T13:47:03.731+00:00I get the impression on this topic Rogoff seems to...I get the impression on this topic Rogoff seems to be a hired gun to advance to most defensible pro-austerity argument to the "serious academic" set will take as serious at that time.<br />Now there are other hired guns in this debate that hit other demographics that are less sophisticated with completely discredited argument..so I guess yes "Rogoff is an OK guy"..one who is fighting a great rear guard action for a discredited movement...as long as Pete Peterson and his ilk can finance the campaign.GMANhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01381186427060384554noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-15550810137277647272013-10-04T10:51:43.596+00:002013-10-04T10:51:43.596+00:00Rogoff: Austerity is insurance - it convinces the ...Rogoff: Austerity is insurance - it convinces the market that there is the political will in the UK to balance the books in the long term, and hence prevents a "run" on UK gvt debt (a large rise in UK interest rates as market participants stop buying UK debt).<br /><br />Wren-Lewis (and Krugman): you don't need austerity as insurance if the central bank (here the BoE) prints money in case of a such a run. In fact, if this is true, then no run would occur in the first place.<br /><br />Corsetti & Dedola: printing money is not credible in such a scenario, as it would lead to much higher inflation. So even if there was a run on UK gvt debt, the central bank would not print money. Knowing this, a run is possible.<br /><br />Note that QE thus far hasn't led to inflation - *but* this is consistent with the idea that QE is temporary (Sargent and Wallace showed in a famous paper in 1981 that temporary money printing may not be inflationary; but a permanent increase in the supply of money would be). For QE to act as insurance against a run we need a permanent increase in the money supply to be credible. <br /><br />Professor - apologies if I have mischaracterised your views! And my first post didn't thank you for your thoughtful response to Rogoff's piece, which was amiss. So thank you! Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-56631300485127820982013-10-04T10:36:20.364+00:002013-10-04T10:36:20.364+00:00I had a quick look at that paper. It’s about 20,00...I had a quick look at that paper. It’s about 20,000 words and I don’t have time. Any chance of you summarising the authors’ reasons for scepticism about printing? My twopence is as follows.<br /><br />I can think of various extreme scenarios (serious political upheaval, etc) where printing is no solution. A more likely scenario (in the case of the US) is a reduced willingness to buy US debt because the current irresponsible behaviour by the US government continues and/or there is an increased desire by Asians to invest at home rather than in US debt. In that case interest demanded for holding US debt would rise. But the US needn’t pay that increased interest. Assuming there’s a recession, the US can just print. And that printing shouldn’t be inflationary because in recessions there is plenty of spare capacity. <br /><br />At least one MMTer has pointed out that the rate of interest a country pays on its debt is entirely a matter of choice. And taking that point even further, Milton Friedman and Warren Mosler have advocated that the only liability the government / central bank machine should issue is cash: i.e. countries should issue no debt at all. I’m 90% sure that’s a good idea.<br /><br />Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.com