tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post7876621266964459644..comments2024-03-29T12:16:15.785+00:00Comments on mainly macro: How to predict a crisisMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45732241640415901942018-10-10T15:47:06.804+00:002018-10-10T15:47:06.804+00:00Professor Mark Blyth explains to market analysts w...Professor Mark Blyth explains to market analysts why economics is unpredictable and that mathematics is not relevant as tool to predict it.<br /><br />https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lq3s-Ifx1Fo<br /><br />Mervyn Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10509054505553883594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-56431547859960512122018-10-01T08:26:01.585+00:002018-10-01T08:26:01.585+00:00So the Treasury's predictions are as accurate ...So the Treasury's predictions are as accurate as a coin toss.<br />Economics, innit? StuartPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-66564097506429091682018-10-01T08:22:35.178+00:002018-10-01T08:22:35.178+00:00And your better idea is ... ?And your better idea is ... ?StuartPnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-10078937409059684092018-09-23T22:25:21.892+00:002018-09-23T22:25:21.892+00:00"Leaving the ERM allowed interest rates to be..."Leaving the ERM allowed interest rates to be lower and produced a 10% depreciation in sterling, which helped ensure a strong recovery."<br /><br />But the Treasury predicted that in the aftermath of a Leave vote, sterling would fall, GDP would fall and employment would fall.<br /><br />There has not been a proper investigation as to why their predictions for the last two were so wrong, given that they were right about depreciation. It looks like they didn't understand the likely effects of a devaluation as described in the quote. Until they come clean, we will never know.TeeJayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02894564884420913780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-15535178356656279052018-09-20T08:35:09.281+00:002018-09-20T08:35:09.281+00:00How to predict a crisis: read Taleb.How to predict a crisis: read Taleb.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44184887833290265172018-09-19T05:13:39.072+00:002018-09-19T05:13:39.072+00:00What do you think of Michael-Burry style analysis ...What do you think of Michael-Burry style analysis for predicting a future crisis? I wrote a post here titled "How to Predict a Financial Crisis" http://econanalysistools.blogspot.com/2017/04/what-can-economists-learn-from-hedge.htmlAlex Peekhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16599952608457953713noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-1177856859111836842018-09-18T17:51:54.019+00:002018-09-18T17:51:54.019+00:00A system based on debt, is an obvious systemic ris...A system based on debt, is an obvious systemic risk. The city produces nothing but speculates in order to accumulate, it doesn't worry itself about risk it just tries to predict the upward and downward movements in order to profit from it.<br /><br />The real question is what purpose does it really serve? <br /><br />Market philosophy is really dead in the water, in the 21st century why do we believe today's circumstances fit in with 19th century, when we have no manufacturing base to talk of, we are no longer a global power, and Neo-Liberal politicians have totally lost all credibility.<br /><br />Unless of course we just accept our masters know best and be just satisfied with anything that keeps us above the level of destitution that the poor in the rest of the world suffer.<br /> Mervyn Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10509054505553883594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-73096733606973214442018-09-18T13:54:09.329+00:002018-09-18T13:54:09.329+00:00Where is Krugman, Schiller, and Stiglitz on the li...Where is Krugman, Schiller, and Stiglitz on the list of those who predicted the crisis?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-57107692444631001092018-09-17T23:15:00.373+00:002018-09-17T23:15:00.373+00:00"we have hardly begun the process of creating..."we have hardly begun the process of creating a macroeconomic policy regime that can deal with a future recession, let alone a crisis."<br /><br />We know how to deal with a liquidity crunch: print more money. We should use that lesson to fund universal basic income on central bank balance sheets.<br /><br />Central banks have unlimited currency swap lines these days, so if the UK needs dollars it gets them at away-from-market rates from the Fed. With no capacity limits. Markets are not involved in Fed currency swap lines.Robert S Mitchellhttp://subbot.orgnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-30663445007802116012018-09-17T09:26:11.038+00:002018-09-17T09:26:11.038+00:00Emerging from under stones are those who suggest t...Emerging from under stones are those who suggest that the GFC was caused because the authorities were too hard on the financial institutions, who should have been given more support.Frank Littlehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12447989626809704972noreply@blogger.com