tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post8553403169593360746..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Labour and its LeftMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger70125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42856515921668199262017-06-14T09:55:19.795+00:002017-06-14T09:55:19.795+00:00On the SNP -- many Scots who went from SNP to Tori...On the SNP -- many Scots who went from SNP to Tories in the belief Labour could not win in England but they still want to keep nationalists out. (Davidson must know this hence her protecting her left flank on gay rights after the DUP showed up). And nobody can say any more that Labour are "Red Tories" and choose the SNP for that reason.<br /><br />So next time, the newly-electable, non-Tory Labour will be more attractive in Scotland and get more seats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-50984692973596634252017-06-14T09:49:49.631+00:002017-06-14T09:49:49.631+00:00Have you read the bloody manifesto Flora Page? Whe...Have you read the bloody manifesto Flora Page? When you've done that, tell us what parts you object to and why instead of giving us sense-impressions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-55238219124799282652017-06-14T09:47:44.067+00:002017-06-14T09:47:44.067+00:00I think yes Labour had to prioritise getting the e...I think yes Labour had to prioritise getting the economy moving again with a stimulus and hammer that message home. That has broader appeal than left-v-right policy arguments where if you pick left you have to say how the deficit won't go up.<br /><br />But in this election the Tories made inroads into poor areas and Labour into rich ones. That is very sceptical Middle England. I assume the Tories could improve with the poor due to picking up Kippers, because many working class ppl still care about keeping Jezza away from immigration policy, and have read plenty about him and the IRA, a problem he didn't attend to. This can be fixed next time while keeping the new middle class voters.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-817296767569022017-06-14T09:43:09.490+00:002017-06-14T09:43:09.490+00:00No, they have another line of defence which may ha...No, they have another line of defence which may have denied Labour a majority. The "IRA" thing. JC released a statement in reply to the Tories' NI Secretary saying he opposed the IRA campaign and not just killing of civilians. But this was one day after the car crash "all bombings" interview which everyone has seen, and it was only hours before the Manchester bomb. It was in Metro, Irish Times, dunno where else. Hardly any coverage compared to the bomb.<br /><br />Meanwhile the Tories made a video (several days later) which got a million views. It was the Friday before the election before the campaign called the vid misleading. But what about telling the public about the statement? "Opposed the IRA campaign". Everyone needed to know. The would-be-Labour-but-for-Corbyn voters.<br /><br />And the DUP left the door open for a deal with Miliband in 2015 when a hung parliament was expected. Jez might have got them if he came out against the IRA earlier and clearly, with no ambiguity and time for the DUP to let their constituents adjust to the idea without fearing a sellout to Sinn Fein.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-75980606389280664472017-06-14T09:37:44.097+00:002017-06-14T09:37:44.097+00:00Miliband decided to let the budget balance itself ...Miliband decided to let the budget balance itself midway through the parliament. He obviously concluded the press would kill him if he said borrowing should increase. He was polling well for years and could have won. But the Tory press never laid off, the Scot indy ref was used as a prelude to the SNP general election campaign, and they made noises about nit-being-Blairite and being anti-austerity (but they only wanted a 0.2% spending increase iirc). That and Scottish credulity towards the SNP and their own egoes blocked Miliband in Scotland and denied him a win.<br /><br />Political wilderness yes, trying to be conventional on the deficit had unintended consequences. (And for the Tories too -- Brexit)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-30710169932702221022017-06-14T09:31:25.514+00:002017-06-14T09:31:25.514+00:00I think Hattersley is right but there's more t...I think Hattersley is right but there's more to it. Did New Lab do PFI and other sucking up to big business in order to get right-wing and middle-class voters directly? Naw. They did it to get the support of big business, in the hope of getting the press to lay off Labour so they could get establishment "permission" to get re-elected.<br /><br />Same with Brown I think, a too-small stimulus followed by budget-balancing moves to try and get the powers that be to allow him to win. But, the Tory press ultimately has it in for Labour and would prefer a Tory govt when they can get it. National debt! zOMG Greece!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-14364898554848998062017-06-14T09:24:40.352+00:002017-06-14T09:24:40.352+00:00I second that. I was delighted when I saw the name...I second that. I was delighted when I saw the names of SW-L and other internet favourites of mine on the EACAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-21111611154580777092017-06-13T18:50:16.151+00:002017-06-13T18:50:16.151+00:00" I'm really not sure where the extra vot..." I'm really not sure where the extra votes Labour needs will come from when lots of middle class business people I know would never ever vote Corbyn. "<br /><br />In the post-election poll by Survation (who were amongst the closest to getting the result right), Labour had moved SIX POINTS ahead of the Tories. A "middle class businessperson" amongst my friends who for a year has been enthusiastically backing the Lib Dems and attacking Labour and Corbyn has become an enthusiastic Corbyn fan following the campaign and result. The Tories are falling apart and Labour's success is generating its own momentum. Labour can definitely win a future election if it can stick together and build on this. <br /><br />"Add an aging population with fewer young people to vote and more lost elections will be the result."<br /><br />This assumes that old people always vote Tory as a rule. It's equally possible that its a generational thing and that as the current Tory-voting 70-plusers, on who the Conservatives were extremely reliant, start to die off, Labour will benefit from a strong demographic shift in its favour as the population becomes dominated by the current under-50s who overwhelmingly vote Labour (and who will probably become more likely to turn out as they get older). Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07803284491495723872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-48875816551217955092017-06-13T18:42:15.762+00:002017-06-13T18:42:15.762+00:00The disastrous Tory campaign no doubt had an influ...The disastrous Tory campaign no doubt had an influence on the outcome, but when it comes to Smith, come on - you've got to be joking. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07803284491495723872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32114488456539110692017-06-13T18:38:43.250+00:002017-06-13T18:38:43.250+00:00"Others will go further and say ‘if only the ..."Others will go further and say ‘if only the PLP had been more cooperative we could have won’. That is going too far..The election result was also a consequence of a truly terrible Conservatives campaign, headed by a Prime Minister who exposed herself as just the wrong person to lead the country through Brexit The economic environment couldn’t have been better for Labour: unlike 2015 we had falling real wages and the slowest quarterly GDP growth rate in the EU. Labour’s manifesto held out hope, while the Conservative manifesto was a liability."<br /><br />The fact that the Tories ran a terrible campaign etc doesn't have any bearing on whether or not a Labour party that hadn't been tearing itself apart for two years couldn't have won. The argument here doesn't make any sense. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07803284491495723872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-30369649014688559982017-06-13T18:36:33.226+00:002017-06-13T18:36:33.226+00:00I don't know if Labour would have won outright...I don't know if Labour would have won outright if the party had united behind Corbyn two years ago. But one can say with something approaching certainty that they would have deprived the Tory-DUP alliance of a majority, which could have allowed for a Labour minority government backed by the SNP and the Lib Dems. Labour was less than a combined 3000 votes away from capturing seven more seats off the Tories. The idea that two years of constant sniping and rebellions didn't push the the vote down at least a tiny bit - which was enough to get the Tories and the DUP a working majority - is absurd. So the people that tore the party apart - when it was obvious that the membership was going to keep Corbyn - have a fair bit to answer for. <br />Hopefully it won't matter and there'll be another election soon that Labour will win. Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07803284491495723872noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-57711985107315828592017-06-13T15:44:07.704+00:002017-06-13T15:44:07.704+00:00To both these replies I reply that you prove my po...To both these replies I reply that you prove my point. You approach a discussion with a stranger on the internet by saying I'm talking nonsense / that I don't understand. You make it impossible for us to disagree with one another without being rude and - yes - thuggish, in a rather middle-class way. This is the culture around Corbyn that I can't bear. <br /><br />Bobbyboyo, I agree that the manifesto was not that radical. It was not radical enough for me. Florahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08129694921423448564noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-61980734326569555132017-06-13T06:16:44.654+00:002017-06-13T06:16:44.654+00:00Which is exactly why the Labour Party had rocks in...Which is exactly why the Labour Party had rocks in its head when it opposed the STV plebiscite for apparent short-term tactical advantage. Under proportional representation it, not the Tories, would be forming a minority government today. Under STV it would probably be forming a majority government.derrida deriderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01188777386180390172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-10416991742760587282017-06-13T06:04:18.502+00:002017-06-13T06:04:18.502+00:00Agree - mainly JC got lucky. Though he did genuin...Agree - mainly JC got lucky. Though he did genuinely surprise his opponents (both inside and outside Labour) with his campaigning skills too.<br /><br />The biggest piece of luck, though, was the poor showing of the Lib-Dems and the SNP - both of which were none of Corbyn or May's doing. Those two parties' wounds were entirely self-inflicted.<br /><br />Each of the mainstream parties in the UK seem to have had a frightful attack of political incompetence in the last few years. If they keep this up I'll expect the Greens or the National Front to form government after the next election - what the hell is going on over there?derrida deriderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01188777386180390172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32301603303180476732017-06-13T05:44:58.965+00:002017-06-13T05:44:58.965+00:00Yes, and how deeply stupid was Labour not to back ...Yes, and how deeply stupid was Labour not to back the Lib-Dems in the STV vote? Talk about "past incompetence"!<br /><br />First Past the Post is usually a tactical advantage for the Labour party, but it is a huge strategic disadvantage for the centre-left. derrida deriderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01188777386180390172noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-58165803592073298862017-06-12T19:13:44.122+00:002017-06-12T19:13:44.122+00:00The national investment bank is surely a good star...The national investment bank is surely a good start. Something you can advise them on? Bobbyboyohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13239779186727837854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-4182841736596233012017-06-12T19:12:15.703+00:002017-06-12T19:12:15.703+00:00Simon, i have massive respect for you and learnt a...Simon, i have massive respect for you and learnt a hell of a lot from your blog and Bob McKee's attack was over the top, but if you are seriously trying to suggest Owen Smith would have been a credible candidate then you have lost it. If Labour had elected another PR friendly moderate robot as a leader they would have been consigned to the dustbin of history. It's obvious now that millions of people are desperate and need hope. Corbyn did make the difference. Bobbyboyohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13239779186727837854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-38284780763363644092017-06-12T19:03:39.485+00:002017-06-12T19:03:39.485+00:00@simon I'm afraid, once again, faulty reasonin...@simon I'm afraid, once again, faulty reasoning here. PLP unity was and is not an end in itself which is why nobody would mention it as a reason not to vote Corbyn. However it was a constant haemorrhage of goodwill in an indirect fashion. For example, the right-wing argument that 'he was a good at protest, poor in leadership' which was mentioned repeatedly by people on the doorstep, was indirectly fuelled by all those serial shadow cabinet resignations, the vote of no confidence and so on. People may not have spelt it out but it was a dog-whistle subliminal connection.<br /><br />PLP unity during the election manifested itself as a pause-of-hostilities as opposed to active support. Most of the PLP opposition campaigned locally in their own constituencies (gladly receiving the help of Momentum activists by the way) while never getting their hands dirty with the national campaign. Since you are obsessed with evidence (so am I), just look at the twitter feeds of some of them and search for the word 'Corbyn' before June 8th. In Angela Eagle's feed you have to reach page 4 or 5 before you find some reference (I think it's JC's fumble at the woman's hour interview, seriously!) No sticking their necks out for anything, no throwing their lot in, just waiting in the corner, sharpening knives and according to some reports, polishing their leadership bids.<br /><br />I don't recall anybody saying that disunity would not matter. I do remember people commenting in this blog that it would not be fatal, and in the end it wasn't. But to argue that true PLP unity from day 1 would not have shifted 30 of the 38 seats with a majority of less than 2000 to labour is not really based on any evidence.Yiorgoshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12237753414862960806noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-51290771226730738622017-06-12T18:33:34.049+00:002017-06-12T18:33:34.049+00:00I never thought Smith would win. But if the electi...I never thought Smith would win. But if the election had been a disaster for Labour, the polls suggest they would have replaced him. I think what you say might apply to some in the PLP, but not the majority. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-82655728184352830602017-06-12T18:27:05.738+00:002017-06-12T18:27:05.738+00:00I think you make an important point. The Labour ma...I think you make an important point. The Labour manifesto was essentially centre-left, which is partly why the PLP could unite behind it. And, according to the Ashcroft poll at least, it was these policies that won it.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-53794189258912804262017-06-12T18:21:04.996+00:002017-06-12T18:21:04.996+00:00OK, I cannot let that pass. I backed Smith and lef...OK, I cannot let that pass. I backed Smith and left the EAC because most of the PLP had no confidence in Corbyn. I thought that would continue, but it did not. Are you seriously suggesting the Tory campaign had no influence? Do you have evidence on how the party would have done under Smith? Have you not read my recent posts on the economics of the manifesto! Where is the hypocrisy exactly? Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-91753682324794030442017-06-12T18:09:45.135+00:002017-06-12T18:09:45.135+00:00See my reply to Andy Ross above.See my reply to Andy Ross above.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8578591211445780642017-06-12T18:09:04.773+00:002017-06-12T18:09:04.773+00:00They will not attract them by telling them they &#...They will not attract them by telling them they 'should understand', however. But Brexit does mean that labour is in a position to cultivate business. One question is it willing or able to do so.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-24801817077526723912017-06-12T18:06:31.518+00:002017-06-12T18:06:31.518+00:00Where I have always been. You have a problem with ...Where I have always been. You have a problem with that?Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-25184332523199161472017-06-12T18:05:52.213+00:002017-06-12T18:05:52.213+00:00Indeed. Hence my second from last paragraph. But t...Indeed. Hence my second from last paragraph. But the issue of who will challenge him as leader is now dead, so we are where we are.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.com