tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post858153714754761937..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Why voting for Article 50 may ruin an MP's careerMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger32125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-46553500782206300402017-02-06T10:22:02.210+00:002017-02-06T10:22:02.210+00:00I suppose so.
In the same way as the screen you ar...I suppose so.<br />In the same way as the screen you are looking at has been put together from a diverse range of raw materials and technologies that have originated from all round the globe. How is that even possible? Clue: the EU single market has very little to do with it.StuartPhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13748038209546648459noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-48975827780360773682017-02-04T10:30:16.989+00:002017-02-04T10:30:16.989+00:00I was once at a conference of policy advisers wher...I was once at a conference of policy advisers where we concluded that the single action that would most enhance UK welfare would be to close down certain tabloids- unfortunately it had to be recognised that this was ultra vires. History shows the dangers of fuelling and ignoring populism.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08802148408408919222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-721931932044407642017-02-02T19:22:37.812+00:002017-02-02T19:22:37.812+00:00No! Take your examples. How do you know that if Os...No! Take your examples. How do you know that if Osborne had kept his job we wouldn't have had an emergency budget. The OBR is much more pessimistic about the public finances. End of western civilisation - who on earth said that. Immediate recession was a forecast, not a fact, and all unconditional forecasts are wrong. No one said Brexit would fuel war in Europe. The Leave campaign lied about a simple fact - the £350 million. What facts did Remain lie about? The Leave campaign said Turkey was about to join the EU. No one who knew anything about it thought Turkey was about to join. Simple, straight lies, straight out of the Trump playbook. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-46439730236288084312017-02-02T19:14:30.115+00:002017-02-02T19:14:30.115+00:00I'm not saying that. I'm saying that for e...I'm not saying that. I'm saying that for every angry Leaver there is an Angry Remainer. People seem to be ignoring the fact that the LibDems are winning election after election as a result. If Labour loses it new heartlands in the cities, they are dead.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-89152147645164403432017-02-02T19:11:34.300+00:002017-02-02T19:11:34.300+00:00Be very careful with this 'there will be riots...Be very careful with this 'there will be riots in the streets if parliament says No' kind of argument. If you want to reduce violence close down the Daily Mail.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-36039253692161667322017-02-02T19:08:10.376+00:002017-02-02T19:08:10.376+00:00Where have they ruled out a Norway type arrangemen...Where have they ruled out a Norway type arrangement? Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8299307076239646262017-02-02T19:07:26.542+00:002017-02-02T19:07:26.542+00:00I was thinking in my living memory. I do not remem...I was thinking in my living memory. I do not remember a campaign before that deliberately lied about key issues. It is like a politician saying growth last year was 4% when it was actually 2%. In fact, it is like Donald (biggest inauguration ever) Trump.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76773810764439646352017-02-02T19:03:28.180+00:002017-02-02T19:03:28.180+00:00Since we joined the EU, the UK has not been declin...Since we joined the EU, the UK has not been declining in terms of output per head, even though the trend in other major countries has slowed a little. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-59205195730376743752017-02-02T19:00:52.425+00:002017-02-02T19:00:52.425+00:00The 'if we try hard enough, we can make anythi...The 'if we try hard enough, we can make anything work' school of thought. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-30150276291556155632017-02-02T18:58:39.597+00:002017-02-02T18:58:39.597+00:00Robert. A majority of a majority is not necessaril...Robert. A majority of a majority is not necessarily a majority, so your logic does not work. Ask people if they would lose 6% of their income permanently for the sake of limiting immigration, and the majority answer would be No. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-10699949172182007212017-02-02T12:11:19.720+00:002017-02-02T12:11:19.720+00:00EducationEducationAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02470557317006712135noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-46846244766385478742017-02-01T19:27:21.779+00:002017-02-01T19:27:21.779+00:00You listen to much to the British press and politi...You listen to much to the British press and politicians who are totally out of touch with the British people who mostly want a Hard Brexit. The press can keep inventing stories designed to scare people into believing we want a soft exit but it is all lies and twisted words. Dont trust British Press they no longer represent the British people or our interests.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-12690555576149200952017-02-01T19:24:53.707+00:002017-02-01T19:24:53.707+00:00Voting against article 50 most certainly will ruin...Voting against article 50 most certainly will ruin careers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-52874207168474956332017-02-01T16:07:31.436+00:002017-02-01T16:07:31.436+00:00Simon, can you explain why the Lords seem not to b...Simon, can you explain why the Lords seem not to be resisting? The Conservative lords are in a minority and the other lords don't appear to have much to lose from at least delaying the trigger till September, which would be a better time to start negotiating, given upcoming European elections. Perhaps they fear a general election.Andrew Maclarenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15707368897094597072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-72624202465205985022017-02-01T14:02:53.516+00:002017-02-01T14:02:53.516+00:00Look up "false equivalence."Look up "false equivalence."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-67600860901420992402017-01-31T15:40:14.912+00:002017-01-31T15:40:14.912+00:00Sacrificing some border control to maintain good t...Sacrificing some border control to maintain good trade relations with the EU is significantly more popular in current polls than hard Brexit, which has always been a minority preference:<br /><br />https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/01/16/public-split-what-kind-brexit-they-think-governmen/Petehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02545931844503083783noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-22975786120572774682017-01-31T14:24:56.910+00:002017-01-31T14:24:56.910+00:00The decline of labour share can not be pinned on j...The decline of labour share can not be pinned on just international trade. Technology has had a larger impact especially for low skilled labour. Economists have repeatedly argued for centuries the merits of state provided education and other mechanisms such as social protection while they are training.<br /><br />Trade is good for consumers from a utilitarian perceptive. Labour are consumers. The two can are the same and can not be viewed apart as that gives a false impression.<br /><br />I think you naively let the politicians off the hook by arguing that they would implement useful policies if only that they knew about the problems. They are well aware of the counter arguments to their position (if they don't then that is a catastrophic failure of free speech) but they have their own policy platform to implement/maintain.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-1649285547475236482017-01-31T13:32:13.152+00:002017-01-31T13:32:13.152+00:00In 2014 the CJEU gave power to member states to pr...In 2014 the CJEU gave power to member states to prosecute European citizens who were abusing social benefit systems.<br /><br />European Courts backed the British government in stopping child benefit to European citizens. Early in 2014 it was made clear to member states that immigrants, even European citizens, do not have an automatic right to benefits. It is up to the member states what they want to do.<br /><br />European member states can also apply for emergency brake on immigration if they feel it is too high. But Eurosceptic Tory MPs were against these measures in 2016. It is clear that the people who claim they have no control over immigration are lying. There exist controls but they do not want to use them.<br /><br />Britian can remain in the single market and have control over immigration.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-81980201825279126172017-01-31T11:59:20.812+00:002017-01-31T11:59:20.812+00:00Lies were also told by the remain side (there will...Lies were also told by the remain side (there will have to be an emergency tax raising budget, end of western political civilisation, immediate recession, warnings that Brexit would fuel war in europe etc etc). Isn't it a fair point that lies told by each side may in the end have cancelled each other out? You seem so sure that Brexit will be disastrous where as many of us saw a nuanced choice with powerful and persuasive arguments on both sides. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-47983591387081751002017-01-31T11:12:06.336+00:002017-01-31T11:12:06.336+00:00Labour constituencies which voted Leave aren't...Labour constituencies which voted Leave aren't necessarily constituencies where most Labour voters voted Leave.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39015926625068088132017-01-31T10:06:20.938+00:002017-01-31T10:06:20.938+00:00This is saying, at some length, that leaving the s...This is saying, at some length, that leaving the single market will be economically damaging, and when voters realise this, they will punish MPs who failed to stand in the way. However the Treasury's forecast, and most of the others, was of slower growth until 2030. How do you propose to pin this onto Brexit in a way that will convince the electorate? You can't. There will therefore be no penalty for MPs who voted for article 50.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45038512297820465092017-01-30T19:06:59.815+00:002017-01-30T19:06:59.815+00:00Enormous respect for Simon as economist- only wish...Enormous respect for Simon as economist- only wish more economists, including myself, were of his calibre. And I agree with so much of what he says here, but he was strategically wrong on JC and the leadership challenge, as love JC or hate him , it was futile and damaging to support an internecine battle that has simply achieved an easier path for a 'throw in the towel' hard Brexiting Theresa May. <br />Equally, I hate the referendum result, and it should never have been called. But it was, and I'm very scared that the worse consequences of defying what is seen by so many as the will of the people is not merely damage to the nice careers of those in the Westminster bubble but more of the sort of atrocities we saw with Jo Cox and the Pole who had his brains dashed out by a mob nearby where I live -simply for being foreign. Civilised intellectuals too often under-estimate the potential for brutality and the ever present threat of the far-right.<br /> Triggering Article 50 is sadly unstoppable anyway, but it says nothing about the terms of BREXIT, Article 50 will be revocable if the EU hierarchy wills it so.<br />But I whole-heartedly agree with Simon that there was not a mandate for a hard BREXIT and that some economic illiterates in the Corbyn camp need to be contained. When the impacts of BREXIT appear more in the data the mood in the country may change, more substantially than it has so far. If the UK is seen to have made a genuine attempt to leave but the costs are too great then rejection and soft BREXIT may be safer, but to just 'defy the people' (include a nasty mob in that) is not safe now, and could be very counter-productive. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08802148408408919222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-7724849075039877362017-01-30T17:27:59.521+00:002017-01-30T17:27:59.521+00:00The problem with the soft-brexit idea is that the ...The problem with the soft-brexit idea is that the EU has basically said it won't happen. It's just not in the gift of the British government.<br />Pseudonymnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-46651380908926231682017-01-30T16:57:44.162+00:002017-01-30T16:57:44.162+00:00All elections are fought on claims that may or may...All elections are fought on claims that may or may not be true. Voters are nowhere near as naive as you assume Simon. They believe what they want to believe and add a pinch of salt to anything said by a politician. As for the EU referendum setting a new high in dishonesty, are you unaware of the Zinoviev letter ; a claim more fake than even Nick Clegg's Tuition Fees pledge :<br /><br />https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zinoviev_letterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76309390009117892912017-01-30T16:23:04.248+00:002017-01-30T16:23:04.248+00:00The gains from trade do not arise from price conve...The gains from trade do not arise from price convergence, but from differences in option costs. The criterion we use to advocate for freer trade is the Kaldor-Hicks criterion which says that no one would loose and at least one would gain, provided the policy is coupled with appropriate redistributions of gains.<br /><br />Here, it means that victims of specialization should be offered cheap or free training in sectors where the country has an edge following freer trade. Basically ease their way into the more productive sectors.<br /><br />This doesn't need to result in stagnating wages.Stéphanenoreply@blogger.com