tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post8599131352456532340..comments2024-03-28T04:29:22.717+00:00Comments on mainly macro: From seats to governments: UK general election arithmeticMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-55344613287069335432015-04-28T22:16:03.485+00:002015-04-28T22:16:03.485+00:00If Clegg uses the criteria of party with most seat...If Clegg uses the criteria of party with most seats to decide who to form a coalition with, SNP rather than Labour could matter. Clegg's logic makes little sense, but that will not stop him doing it. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76184820062386908652015-04-28T21:54:26.466+00:002015-04-28T21:54:26.466+00:00""@Anonymous
Excellent post. I've be...""@Anonymous<br />Excellent post. I've been trying to explain this to some nationalist friends - voting SNP will make a Tory government more likely.""<br /><br /><br /><br />What?<br /><br />The tories will be lucky to get one seat in Scotland. "SNP understanding" is as good as Labour seats. It's the seats that the tories win and Labour don't that is the issue. IF you want the tories out.<br /><br />323 Lab/SNP is the same as 323 Lab<br /><br />Scotland will probably be 100% anti-tory. England is where Labour need to take seats away from the tories.<br /><br /><br />Sorry but you're wrong. <br /><br />Voting SNP will NOT make a Tory government more likely under any circumstance if the "understanding" is legit. The anti-tories need 323 seats for Labour to win. If anything, the SNP wave taking seats will make it more likely that tory-dem can't happen. SNP will be taking lib-dem seats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-31680206964573402462015-04-28T21:50:46.710+00:002015-04-28T21:50:46.710+00:00""@Anonymous
Excellent post. I've be...""@Anonymous<br />Excellent post. I've been trying to explain this to some nationalist friends - voting SNP will make a Tory government more likely.""<br /><br /><br /><br />What?<br /><br />The tories will be lucky to get one seat in Scotland. "SNP understanding" is as good as Labour seats. It's the seats that the tories win and Labour don't that is the issue. IF you want the tories out. <br /><br />323 Lab/SNP is the same as 323 Lab<br /><br />Scotland will probably be 100% anti-tory. England is where Labour need to take seats away from the tories.<br /><br /><br />Sorry but you're wrong. Voting SNP will NOT make a Tory government more likely under any circumstance if the "understanding" is legit. The anti-tories need 323 seats for Labour to win. If anything, the SNP wave taking seats will make it more likely. SNP will be taking lib-dem seats.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-89448102722525026352015-04-21T09:52:11.488+00:002015-04-21T09:52:11.488+00:00Great analysis and explanation. The only insight I...Great analysis and explanation. The only insight I can offer to the Lib Dem decision making process is from their party conference - very democratic involving votes by party members, but not rapid by any means.<br /><br />I'd imagine a leadership change would take place 'outside' of this usual process - would it be popular with their wider membership?Andrew G-Hhttps://twitter.com/agladheightnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-7463784645403905792015-04-20T15:58:24.917+00:002015-04-20T15:58:24.917+00:00We shall see. There was no discernible UKIP effect...We shall see. There was no discernible UKIP effect before, and I suspect Cameron and Co are more worried about this than are the other parties, although Labour coud lose out too. Are you suggesting that the LibDems are not least likely to lose votes to UKIP? <br /><br />I'm not looking at other policies or views, just this one factor which is perhaps the main change from 2010 for the Nation as a whole. As the party that came second in more Labour seats than the Tories, and second in more Tory seats than did Labour, who other than the LibDems will benefit so much from UKIP chipping away at the two big parties' core votes? The Cameron meme is that Labour will benefit most, but Labour loses votes to UKIP too which adds to the general feeling that Cameron is really out of touch with anything except his own propaganda machine.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-26180164399380367442015-04-20T14:13:57.413+00:002015-04-20T14:13:57.413+00:00I fear that any optimism over the Lib Dem's pe...I fear that any optimism over the Lib Dem's performance is sadly misplaced. Firstly, their USP has always been as a "reasonable party of opposition", which was lost when they joined the government. Indeed, in the coalition, they have reaped none of the benefits of government and all of the downside. Secondly, they have always been the beneficiaries of tactical voting, and are much less likely to receive that as a result of (1). Indeed, they had picked up a lot of Labour voters who were disillusioned with Blair, who are not best pleased to find themselves "supporting" a government of the right.gastro georgenoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-18724168735836219482015-04-20T13:30:15.623+00:002015-04-20T13:30:15.623+00:00I haven't followed this as closely as I usuall...I haven't followed this as closely as I usually do but wasn't there also a distinct possibility of one party (Labour? SNP?) saying they would not enter a coalition, but saying instead there would be the possibility of a Minority Government? What then?<br /><br />Secondly, the LibDems have come second to both Tories and Labour all over the place for years. You may be right that UKIP will not get so many seats, but they will surely still steal away a lot of votes from both Conservatives and Labour. The LibDem faithful have always been a pretty loyal bunch, and when LibDems get in somewhere they do tend to keep it for a long time. Last election there were a lot of people saying right up to polling day that they would vote LibDem, but in the end backed away perhaps because they couldn't imagine the LibDems as a party of Government. Well, now the LibDems *are* seen as a party of Government, so perhaps will gain more of those lost votes from last time, keep a lot of their faithful, and end up winning a lot more seats, far more in line with their share of votes cast since with the UKIP effect the number of votes needed per constituency to be elected is likely to be smaller than in 2010. <br /><br />Basically, UKIP lowers the bar, allowing the LibDems to jump over it more often, giving them a seat share far more in line with their vote share.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-7915326358385479902015-04-19T16:56:50.049+00:002015-04-19T16:56:50.049+00:00The chances of an outright Tory majority could be ...The chances of an outright Tory majority could be higher than people think. William Hill have the tories at 15/2 for an overall majority and 12/5 for 301-325 seats. These look like value bets to me. There isn't the anti tory vibe required to keep them out in my view. It's a first past the post system thats supposed to produce result. It's looking bleak at this stage for progressive forces. If you can take the next three weeks off work grab a red rosette get to your nearest marginal and get stuck into the ground war. Writing or reading blogs is not going to help at this point. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-37612475465025982902015-04-19T15:14:02.464+00:002015-04-19T15:14:02.464+00:00I think the "Lib Dems Decide" category i...I think the "Lib Dems Decide" category is a bit misleading, as I imagine it's unlikely that the Lib Dems would support a Conservative government that made any significant concessions to UKIP for their support. Other than that, quite an interesting way of viewing the election. Certainly goes some way to undermining the inevitable "Miliband government is illegitimate" line.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-47163580752252474612015-04-19T14:18:36.411+00:002015-04-19T14:18:36.411+00:00Excellent post. I've been trying to explain th...Excellent post. I've been trying to explain this to some nationalist friends - voting SNP will make a Tory government more likely.<br /><br />I'd add another point as well. As you say, some English voters will be unhappy if the SNP have some kind of power. I suspect they'd be less unhappy if Labour are at least the largest party.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-66018468258636429262015-04-19T13:12:40.938+00:002015-04-19T13:12:40.938+00:00All this by the LibDems to avoid a multiplier of 1...All this by the LibDems to avoid a multiplier of 1.5, a simple fiscal stimulus, and instead to push a UK-is-Greece fallacy?<br /><br />As Krugman has just said of pausing Greek austerity, which can be echoed for a leftist alliance in the UK, "so is it going to happen? Well, it’s the right thing to do — which tells you nothing."Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com