tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post8606626320113847022..comments2024-03-29T12:16:15.785+00:00Comments on mainly macro: Deficits, Mediamacro and Popular OpinionMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger46125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-25465416218422450832014-12-19T10:13:47.953+00:002014-12-19T10:13:47.953+00:00Good Day,
Do you need an urgent loan to finance...Good Day,<br /> <br /> Do you need an urgent loan to finance your business or in any purpose? we are certified and legitimate and international licensed loan lender We offer loans to Business firms, companies and individuals at an affordable interest rate of 2%. It might be a short or long term loan or even if you have poor credit, We shall process your loan as soon as we receive your application. we are an independent financial institution. We have built up an excellent reputation over the years in providing various types of loans to thousands of our customers. <br /><br />We Offer guaranteed loan services of any amount to citizens and non-citizens we offer easy personal loans, commercial/business loan, car loan, leasing/equipment finance, debt consolidation loan, home loan, for all citizens and non-citizens with either a good or bad credit history. If you are interested in our above loan offer, do not hesitate to contact us via email: { carlos_stev@yahoo.co.uk }..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-87168000049405182492014-12-16T21:02:37.024+00:002014-12-16T21:02:37.024+00:00oops, sorry, this was a response to http://mainlym...oops, sorry, this was a response to http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/robert-peston-mr-market-and-me.htmlAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-66219255589615527702014-12-16T20:27:15.376+00:002014-12-16T20:27:15.376+00:00This is a remarkably generous response from Simon,...This is a remarkably generous response from Simon, considering that Peston appears not to have understood much of the criticisms made by Simon and Paul Krugman and continues to argue against them, despite his admission that he's only a journalist with not much knowledge of economics, in particular:<br />a) he still thinks insolvency can be an issue for the uk, whereas S & P explained why it is not, for a country with its own currency and CB<br />b) he cites the fact that better growth prospects for the uk have not led to rate increases as a counter-argument, whereas as S&P explain, it is the expected path of short term rates that is significant, not growth forecasts, and of course, with inflation still falling and little pick up in wages, there seems little prospect of a B&E rate rise any time soon.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-28888991830042068782014-12-16T12:54:33.465+00:002014-12-16T12:54:33.465+00:00Anonymous and Andreas. Thanks!
Still very odd of ...Anonymous and Andreas. Thanks!<br /><br />Still very odd of S W-L to not mention QE in the US in that June 2014 piece as at least potentially responsible for the personal balance sheet correction and subsequent fall in the savings ratio. The piece certainly begged that question.<br /><br />I see I am flogging a dead horse as Mark Sadowski had already tried to bring monetary policy deniers (at the ZLB) like S W-L to some sort of sense with a response linked to in the comment section.James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45732506855385142012014-12-16T11:51:27.204+00:002014-12-16T11:51:27.204+00:00James, it's a little out of date now but I thi...James, it's a little out of date now but I think <a href="http://www.niesr.ac.uk/blog/recessions-and-recoveries-historical-perspective-updated-april-9-2013" rel="nofollow">Jonathan Portes'</a> historical graph provides a bit of context to the term "recovering well".Andreas Patersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06431120459465519240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-35201182427356004922014-12-16T10:14:31.182+00:002014-12-16T10:14:31.182+00:00James in London - not very good at google :-) htt...James in London - not very good at google :-) http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-us-and-eurozone-2012-3.html Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-50572473174630067382014-12-16T09:47:50.515+00:002014-12-16T09:47:50.515+00:00Arguably recovering well nowArguably recovering well nowAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-52320951740499771902014-12-16T09:23:00.313+00:002014-12-16T09:23:00.313+00:00I have spent 30 minutes searching for blog entries...I have spent 30 minutes searching for blog entries on the "US economic recovery" and found no post from you on this success story. All I can find is plenty of hyperbole about austerity and how it will hobble the recovery. Perhaps it has hobbled the recovery, but why has it not stopped the recoveries or caused further recessions? <br /><br />You are never so bold as to make a prediction that austerity will prevent a recovery, but then I struggle to find you making any testable predictions, despite all your bold and confident critiques of everyone in power.<br /><br />The simple fact remains that the UK and US are at the ZLB, have austerity to varying degrees (the US a lot,the UK a bit), but are recovering well.<br /><br />A valid answer is that QE is not the best monetary policy but has been effective at the ZLB. Targeting Nominal GDP Forecasts would have been far better. Those countries with a (very) weak variant of NGDP Forecast targeting, like flexible inflation targeting have done better than those without, and haven't hit the ZLB.James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-40907289970850279542014-12-15T23:16:23.545+00:002014-12-15T23:16:23.545+00:00I have also discussed this in an earlier post - yo...I have also discussed this in an earlier post - you can find it yourself this time.Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-36794127165610122742014-12-15T22:45:44.547+00:002014-12-15T22:45:44.547+00:00"A" has been accompanied by a good recov..."A" has been accompanied by a good recovery in the US economy, while still at your ZLB. How do you explain this inconvenient truth?<br />James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-35755456545064353572014-12-15T22:00:20.964+00:002014-12-15T22:00:20.964+00:00How about for starters, getting people to understa...How about for starters, getting people to understand that there is no such thing as "the" national debt, only hundreds of thousands of national "debts" that we have been paying off easily when they come due for hundreds of years and will continue to pay off easily when.they come due for the next t few hundreds of ears?urban legendnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-61696245629322306782014-12-15T21:13:50.535+00:002014-12-15T21:13:50.535+00:00People understand that increased productivity is g...People understand that increased productivity is good for wages or profits. However, for example, how would politicians articulate the currentn failure without appearing to be critical of the British worker? That is not to defend Labour for its craven economic policy. But some events are like massive stones thrown into a political pool, and the politicians will not go against the waves. Without comparing them, peace dominated politics in the inter war years as debt seems to dominate now. It is not a question of economics?Bill Doddshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04999316648840074840noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-83952473975383854992014-12-15T19:02:00.205+00:002014-12-15T19:02:00.205+00:00That is because A and B do not promote growth, sil...That is because A and B do not promote growth, silly. On (3), read some of my past posts e.g. http://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/zero-lower-bound-denial.htmlMainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8459639665596731292014-12-15T19:01:47.398+00:002014-12-15T19:01:47.398+00:00If anything, I would say Switzerland cares more ab...If anything, I would say Switzerland cares more about its financial backers and there is little difference between the major parties on the deficit.Randomhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04445772572707818311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-8400608458598301042014-12-15T17:10:40.395+00:002014-12-15T17:10:40.395+00:00Precisely true, broadly caught out.
"C"...Precisely true, broadly caught out.<br /><br />"C" is also a very biased option, ie leading the witness. If "A" of "B" also had the rider "and to try and promote growth" maybe they would have won more votes.<br /><br />And what is your answer to my question 3?<br /><br />Still waiting for your explanation as opposed to assertion that monetary policy ceases to work at the ZLB.James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32079365254853826672014-12-15T14:28:40.328+00:002014-12-15T14:28:40.328+00:00The 48% figure comes from cutting out the neither ...The 48% figure comes from cutting out the neither and don't knows, doesn't seem all that unreasonable.<br /><br />On tax cuts vs spending, I think that the option of either is implicit. SWL's analysis is basically that we are in a liquidity trap type situation so that we need to shift the IS curve to the right. Obviously this could be done through either higher spending or lower taxes.<br /><br />Personally I prefer higher spending because I can see the effect of cuts and don't like what I see.Andreas Patersonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06431120459465519240noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-313117416783414752014-12-15T14:26:45.714+00:002014-12-15T14:26:45.714+00:00What I said was "Of those that chose one of t...What I said was "Of those that chose one of these three options, 27% went for option (A), 25% for option (B) and 48% for option (C)." So why is that misleading? And where did I say that this 48% favoured more spending increases rather than tax cuts? Perhaps you should try commenting on what I actually wrote, rather than what you imagined I wrote. Mainly Macrohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-37126373557108827492014-12-15T12:15:23.223+00:002014-12-15T12:15:23.223+00:00Lies, damned lies and statistics.
1: Only 36% of ...Lies, damned lies and statistics.<br /><br />1: Only 36% of those who gave a view said not to prioritise cutting the deficit, but favoured more spending or more tax cuts. In this instance using 48% as your headline figure is pretty close to hyperbole, it's not an election but policy being discussed here.<br /><br />2: Why assume that all of the 36% favoured more spending rather than tax cuts?<br /><br />3: Excuse my ignornance, I am only a part time reader of the column, but can you show me where you have supported tax cuts as fiscal policy? The entries I have read always favour more spending.<br /><br />James in Londonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08392235894752150063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-77166950647707798992014-12-15T09:50:42.549+00:002014-12-15T09:50:42.549+00:00Labour seems to get it to some degree. They are no...Labour seems to get it to some degree. They are not actually promising to reduce the overall deficit, only the current budget deficit. They're ok with running a deficit to pay for investment. The conservatives have been pointing this out recently - look look they want to borrow to invest! How insanely irresponsible is that!! Also I notice the conservative media line is switching from reducing the deficit to reducing the debt. They seem to be trying to merge the two ideas in the public's mind.Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-31506428707848400452014-12-15T09:42:30.846+00:002014-12-15T09:42:30.846+00:00Isn't it 'the sky will not fall in'.
...Isn't it 'the sky will not fall in'. <br /><br />'The world will not fall in' doesn't seem to make sense.Philnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76633323546356139942014-12-15T09:05:42.489+00:002014-12-15T09:05:42.489+00:00It also may be, to an extent, the opinion of elite...It also may be, to an extent, the opinion of elites, including successful and influential members of the media, who care less about the safety net.<br /><br />A thought that I had recently is this:<br /><br />The US is so far to the right of Europe, yet Europe, especially continental Europe, went much more for austerity and hard money! Partly this reflects the US political system and power at the time; how much a party currently can block, who holds Congress, and so on. But my thought is this:<br /><br />There's a lot of evidence that how strong a safety net is, and how strong social programs are, is influenced by how homogeneous the citizenry is. In the US, you really see this, where the right very successfully implies the idea that all, or almost all, social spending is going to "those people" who are lazy and just want to sponge off of you.<br /><br />So, how much of the successfulness of the push for austerity in continental Europe is due to unification and the Euro? Where Europe's right can now claim we have to cut, because "those people" in those other countries are wasting our money and bringing us down. Could unification really cost Europe in its social safety net and public investment? I mean in the US it's getting to the point where the right is just gutting, gutting, public investment, cutting Heckman-style early human development to close to nothing in many states, breaking up roads into medieval gravel – Talk about hurting long run growth! It's frightening. See, for example, here, from today's New York Times:<br /><br />http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/15/us/sam-brownback-tax-cuts-not-set-in-stone-as-kansas-faces-budget-shortfall.html <br /><br />Could unification profoundly cut public investment in Europe? The costs and risks look pretty scary, and "Unification" seems to have really hurt true unification of the peoples of Europe.Richard H. Serlinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09824966626830758801noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-88105849512040877192014-12-15T07:15:35.255+00:002014-12-15T07:15:35.255+00:00I agree with Anonymous that economists have not pr...I agree with Anonymous that economists have not produced credible answers for “the public, politicians and the media” who are concerned about “debt levels”. And certainly I don’t see the macromedia brigade being convinced by Simon’s point about “monetary policy can offset the impact of any fiscal decisions”. That’s for the following reasons.<br /><br />Suppose there’s excessive fiscal stimulus, i.e. government borrows and spends too much. Interest rates and demand would be excessive. So what can monetary policy do? It can cut interest rates, but that makes demand even more excessive. Alternatively, it can raise interest rates so as to cut demand, but that involves inducing the private sector to hold even more government debt. I.e. in effect the national debt rises. Problem not solved.<br /><br />I suggest MMT analysis is better at allaying macromedia’s fears. In particular:<br /><br />As regards the fear that a rising debt can lead to catastrophy, MMTers often answer that by pointing out that the national debt is an asset as viewed by the private sector, thus the higher the debt, the higher private sector spending. Thus the debt is self limiting. <br /><br />As regards interest on the debt, a country that issues its own currency can pay any rate of interest on its debt it likes, as various MMTers have pointed out: at the extreme, such a country can QE the entire debt and thus pay no interest at all. If that proves excessively stimulatory / inflationary, that can be countered by raising taxes and unprinting the money collected. And as long as the latter inflatonary and deflatonary effects are equal, there’s no effect on GDP. <br /><br />Macromedia can understand that, I suggest.<br /><br /><br />Ralph Musgravehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09443857766263185665noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-77261328477477248602014-12-15T00:36:45.912+00:002014-12-15T00:36:45.912+00:00I was chatting to someone this evening who said &q...I was chatting to someone this evening who said "You can tell Osborne and Co are out of touch with ordinary people because they are the only ones who want to increase the country's mortgage payments when times are hard but interest rates are low." I'm not sure if his comparison is completely valid, but for the average man in the street a bit of 'handbag logic' seems to be easier to get a grip of than macroeconomic arguments.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-32932387657391695262014-12-14T23:26:23.394+00:002014-12-14T23:26:23.394+00:00@Anonymous - I agree that Japan may not be an anom...@Anonymous - I agree that Japan may not be an anomaly, but your views on immigrants sound more like fears to be honest. From my experience working amongst immigrants, and being one myself, I can tell you they do not all retire in the host country. About one third come for short term financial gain of less than 5 years. Of the rest, about half to two thirds come for long term financial gain, but retire back to their home countries. Only a small minority actually 'go native'. This makes it very good for the host country which collects their National Insurance money but which doesn't have to fund their expensive care costs in retirement.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-11300151175573252872014-12-14T23:10:32.406+00:002014-12-14T23:10:32.406+00:00Doesn't the fact that 48% prefer C undermine t...Doesn't the fact that 48% prefer C undermine the argument that 'mediamacro' is a problem? Will these people not now just vote Labour (as the party perceived, and continually portrayed, to be softer on deficit reduction)?Magnus carlsennoreply@blogger.com