tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.comments2024-03-19T08:41:43.759+00:00mainly macroMainly Macrohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09984575852247982901noreply@blogger.comBlogger28953125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-91626578959741342682023-06-29T08:16:18.286+00:002023-06-29T08:16:18.286+00:00Excellent detailed and thoughtful analysis, thank ...Excellent detailed and thoughtful analysis, thank you for sharing this. Having read Richard Murphy's twitter thread arguing that increasing the central bank interest rate will increase inflation, I think he's wrong on this.Wignerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10818042199376045632noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-13469080057177257322023-06-27T20:59:55.852+00:002023-06-27T20:59:55.852+00:00“That Brexit would make Inflation worse in the UK ...“That Brexit would make Inflation worse in the UK than other countries is not a surprise. ….. The one most commonly cited is labour shortages brought about by ending free movement.” So, after years of telling us that FOM didn’t supress wages, Remain supporters are now telling us the end of FOM has caused wage inflation. Pret a Manger workers have received a 20% pay rise in a year, various supermarkets have given workers 3 pay rises in a year, lorry drivers have enjoyed more than substantial pay rises. No gain without pain. Inflation is the price that we have to pay to reduce wage inequality. It was never going to happen by the well-off earning less.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-27051252119101983872023-06-27T14:03:12.076+00:002023-06-27T14:03:12.076+00:00What about some inflation is due to higher interes...What about some inflation is due to higher interest rates. I know that inflation measurement does not include inflation but just because it is not inclued does not mean it has no effect.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-49891625992332722482023-06-27T13:58:13.433+00:002023-06-27T13:58:13.433+00:00How does your analytic framework deal with the Jap...How does your analytic framework deal with the Japanese course of action? A Westernized economy heavily dependent on imports, highly exposed to international energy and food markets which has maintained interest rates at -0.1% ever since the inflationary episode started and which has yet has the lowest inflation of all G7?Lowlanderhttps://www.woah.org/en/home/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-71546394816603470302023-06-20T14:46:05.520+00:002023-06-20T14:46:05.520+00:00Very good article, Simon. Full of truth.Very good article, Simon. Full of truth.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-30327763344569624922023-06-19T09:47:50.129+00:002023-06-19T09:47:50.129+00:00The politics of this are quite simple. Around 9 m...The politics of this are quite simple. Around 9 million of households own their primary property outright - i.e., without a mortgage. Over 60% of these households are in the older than 64 category. They also have a high propensity to vote. Most of these households have accumulated signifciant unearned economic rents - and they will fight tool and nail against any policy that might in any way threaten their accumulation of these ecomomic rents.<br /><br />The Tory-supporting press relies on their patronage and, as a result, shamelessly panders to their desires and prejudices and stirs up their fears and concerns. Labour always lives in fear of being monstered by the Tory-supporting press and tends to keep a low profile like a beaten dog.<br /><br />Obviously, it doesn't charge the blood of those who might be inclined to support Labour, but "softly, softly catchee monkey" is probably prudent - if unexciting.<br /><br /> Paul Hunthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03664260838338739661noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-11388214692692945312023-06-14T19:34:20.623+00:002023-06-14T19:34:20.623+00:00Considering that govenment debt is some ones savin...Considering that govenment debt is some ones savings (the rich), this means that the govenment wants to take away the riches savings. This is the last thing the govenment will do. So as usual the govenment if lying. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-87992436270528086242023-06-14T13:21:54.771+00:002023-06-14T13:21:54.771+00:00"That figure will now only be achieved in the..."That figure will now only be achieved in the second half of a Labour government’s first five years."<br /><br />Good. Let's see how they fare with the smaller investment first. I don't trust a UK government of any stripe to spend 28 billion effectively on greening the economy. Starmer and Reeves have zero experience of this kind of investment project, so should take their time and build up experience.<br /><br />" and a media obsessed with fiscal responsibility will continue with that obsession. "<br />Good. The govt. will have to be extremely careful then not to cause any further fiascoes (see the last two times Labour were in govt. when they wrecked UK society and then wrecked the world's economy.)<br /><br />" against my advice."<br />Did you predict the Global Financial Crisis, and if not have you changed the models you use? If you didn't predict the GFC and are still using the same techniques of analysis, how do we know what you suggest won't cause another GFC based on a bubble blown by green investment this time, say?Steven Evanshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13898046706669437332noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-52945035171411157242023-06-14T12:16:43.564+00:002023-06-14T12:16:43.564+00:00Why does a country that issues its own currency ha...Why does a country that issues its own currency have to borrow its own money, to invest? it doesn't, so why pretend it does? New thinking is essential to sound economics.Mervyn Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10509054505553883594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-12269304287264400522023-06-13T12:42:16.574+00:002023-06-13T12:42:16.574+00:00I really do despair. Labour have a once in a gener...I really do despair. Labour have a once in a generation opportunity to change the narrative and they pull stunts like this. Do they actually want to change anything at all or is it all about bums in ministerial limousines?Davidhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05044822526641597453noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-9866396649400422142023-06-07T06:27:37.389+00:002023-06-07T06:27:37.389+00:00After PFI quite how they use a "Green Investm...After PFI quite how they use a "Green Investment Fund" will be 'interesting'. <br /><br />It would not matter if Reeves was suggesting great rules etc it's Labour - deliver the good semantically and bad in Spades. Brownian taxes on bad people and bad things - naughty boy 'windfall' taxes. Why not regulate and tax correctly in the first place? A Potemkin village of economic justice? <br /><br />They're threatening more 'reform' a word so devalued by them it now means low wages and less union rights. Cooper funded (with Starmer/Streeting/etc) by US medical interests. However that's a different debate.bedfonthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08734407435275515547noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-76941606328656678692023-06-04T23:12:59.182+00:002023-06-04T23:12:59.182+00:001) I suppose the ad nauseam argument of the persis...1) I suppose the ad nauseam argument of the persistent Conservative voter is "better than Labour", or "It Would Have Been Worse Under Labour".<br />I think it would be very useful to compare just how good or bad the electorate choices have been, compared to any alternatives.<br />b) Or are we just another Puerto Rico US subservient?<br />In which case, any pretense at democracy are sophistry.prpjusticehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10320614572726185472noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-60580543057716560442023-06-03T09:53:58.075+00:002023-06-03T09:53:58.075+00:00«it was easy to talk, as William Hague did in 2001...«<i>it was easy to talk, as William Hague did in 2001, about the UK becoming a “foreign land”</i>»<br /><br />But since EU exit immigration from non-EU countries has surged to levels higher than during EU FoM and nobody is complaining. Consider this point made by someone who "feels" popular sentiment:<br /><br />https://www.irishpost.com/news/boris-johnson-pledges-stop-eu-migrants-treating-uk-part-country-174975<br />“You’ve seen quite a large number of people coming in from the whole of the EU — 580 million population — able to treat the UK as though it’s basically part of their own country and the problem with that is there has been no control at all and I don’t think that is democratically accountable.”<br /><br />I reckon that the issue for right-wing voters was not immigration, which benefited them economically massively with lower wage cost growth and higher property income growth, and not even race (EU immigrants being mostly whites and non-EU one mostly "persons of colour") but that EU citizens had almost the same right as english citizens, including the automatic right of residence.<br /><br />My guess is that for right-wing voters "control" of immigration does not mean limiting the numbers, but ensuring that the immigrants have a non-citizen second-class legal status.<br /><br />Put another way I think that there is a very big difference in english feeling between english (masters) "expats" and foreign (servants) "immigrants", and it was intolerable to many english people that foreigners (servants) had the status of an "expat" in England itself, as if England were a colony of the EU.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-50319408984259035432023-06-03T09:34:35.821+00:002023-06-03T09:34:35.821+00:00«such a close referendum result meant that nationa...«<i>such a close referendum result meant that national unity should be placed above party unity. They formulated a plan that amounted to the UK leaving the EU but staying in the EU Single Market and Customs Union: a soft Brexit.</i>»<br /><br />That was pretty much what "genocidal trot" Corbyn had proposed, as a compromise between the "Remain" and "Leave" members and voters of Labour.<br /><br />But getting rid of "genocidal trot" Corbyn seemed to be a much higher priority than an EFTA/EEA soft exit, so here we are.<br /><br />«<i>They sought and got the agreement of Labour leadership and enough Labour MPs to support that plan</i>»<br /><br />"Soft exit" was endorsed by 75% of Labour members and votes and a large majority of Labour MPs, so no problem with that.<br /><br />«<i>The only other possible route I can see to a slightly softer Brexit (staying in the Customs Union but not the Single Market), other than a large May majority in 2017</i>»<br /><br />In 2017 May won a landslide (14m) on a "very hard brexit" platform but so did Corbyn (13m) on a "soft brexit platform"...<br /><br /> is a variant of the previous counterfactual, where the new leader who put national unity above party unity and as a result had got agreement from the opposition at the beginning of the process for such a deal. Of course May did try to get agreement with Labour,<br /><br />«<i>An electoral system that was supposed to marginalise the political extremes had put one in charge.</i>»<br /><br />But that is nothing new: since the 1980s we have had extreme "dry" thatcherites in power continuously, because "The Establishment" ensures that the leadership of all parties contains no "wet" ("butskellite") conservatives or social-democrats, with "unfortunate" exceptions suppressed by any means necessary.<br /><br />The only permitted range is between "tory" thatcherites and "whig" thatcherites, because there is a real difference of interests in "The Establishment" among "tory" thatcherite elites and "whig" thatcherite elites, just like in the good old times before the rise of the "Labour representation committee". In this way the problem of non-censuary suffrage has been fixed.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-44281569405763842352023-06-03T09:18:29.293+00:002023-06-03T09:18:29.293+00:00«the Conservative party never had any real plans t...«<i>the Conservative party never had any real plans to seriously reduce levels of immigration.</i>»<br /><br />As Mervyn King argued it reduces wage growth (plus it increases property incomes) so here is no reason why the Conservatives, new Labour or LibDems should limit it.<br /><br />Indeed after 2016 immigration has boomed, surging to rates higher than during EU FoM (700,000 net immigrants during 2022).<br /><br />«<i>Focusing on high levels of immigration was a tactic for defeating a Labour government rather than a policy for government.</i>»<br /><br />What is interesting is that despite the immigration boom after the end of EU FoM the kipper press and people are keeping quiet about it.Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-65830067394715548872023-06-03T09:11:01.344+00:002023-06-03T09:11:01.344+00:00«All that UKIP and the the right wing press (and l...«<i>All that UKIP and the the right wing press (and later the Leave campaign) needed to do was link a failure to meet immigration targets with Freedom of Movement, which they found very easy to do.</i>»<br /><br />One of the funny things is that the nationalist "tory" thatcherite press and kippers, once the EU FoM ended, seem no longer to care about immigration, even if it has been surging since the 2016 referendum, and has reached in 2021 and 2022 the highest levels ever, even higher than the top numbers during EU FoM, as had been easily predicted:<br /><br />https://www.ibtimes.co.uk/buyout-boss-says-brexit-will-be-good-his-business-will-mean-30-cut-uk-wages-1602631<br />«One of the biggest names in European private equity said that Brexit will be good for his business, but will mean a 30% wage reduction for UK workers. [...] He added that EU immigration will be replaced with workers from the Indian subcontinent and Africa, willing to accept "substantially" lower pay.»Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-64015500197750931572023-06-03T09:05:47.220+00:002023-06-03T09:05:47.220+00:00«the directed propaganda media (in the UK to varyi...«<i>the directed propaganda media (in the UK to varying extents the press and the new TV ‘news’ channels of the extreme right) [...] what is often called the non-partisan media, which we could equally call the ‘manufacturing consent media’, which in the UK comprises the major broadcasters and a few newspapers like the Financial Times [...] can be intolerant of what it sees as political extremes.</i>»<br /><br />I am amused by the careful choice of words here: those who call the FT, BBC, etc. "non-partisan" are doing hard-right partisan propaganda too, as the FT, BBC, etc. are just the very partisan directed propaganda media of the globalist "whig" hard-right thatcherites, just as the others are the very partisan directed propaganda media of the nationalist "tory" hard-right thatcherites.<br /><br />https://www.ft.com/content/5584b204-079a-11ea-a984-fbbacad9e7dd<br />2019-11-15 “The Thatcher revolution is coming under threat”<br /><br />PS I occasionally keep commenting here hoping that SWL occasionally reads the "rarely" published comments :-).Blissexnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-45239241617764875242023-05-31T12:14:31.721+00:002023-05-31T12:14:31.721+00:00The blog provides valuable insights into the compl...The blog provides valuable insights into the complex nature of social expenditure. It emphasizes the need to define social expenditure and includes both public and private spending, highlighting the significance of private contributions in countries like the United States. The blog challenges simplistic views on public spending, emphasizing the importance of considering the financing mechanisms and overall social spending levels when discussing the role of the state and tax policies.Pension in Switzerlandhttp://iwp.ch/pensionshttp://iwp.ch/pensionsnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-33327453530578259772023-05-30T11:54:49.404+00:002023-05-30T11:54:49.404+00:00The preceding narrative is a gross distortion of w...The preceding narrative is a gross distortion of what happened with Cameron.<br /><br />Up until 2015, there had been a growing trend towards Euroscepticism in the country. Had there not been a referendum in 2015 then undoubtedly that trend would have continued until the pressure for a referendum became irresistible. Cameron, and Europhiles generally, came up with what they thought was a good wheeze. They decided to hold a referendum before Euroscepticism attained a majority in the country and to enforce that decision ‘for a generation’. The idea was to disenfranchise the oncoming Eurosceptic majority. It was basically an anti-democrat pre-emptive ploy. <br /><br />Of course, it all blew up in their faces, but that’s why it sticks in the gullet so much when one hears Remainers whinging on about democracy and the lack of it.TeeJayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02894564884420913780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-9646099809239582822023-05-30T11:40:39.727+00:002023-05-30T11:40:39.727+00:00“This is how under FPTP a minority can dictate to ...“This is how under FPTP a minority can dictate to the majority.” <br /><br />The vote in the 2015 election gave a majority to parties supporting a referendum, the referendum would have happened even under a true PR system. (People forget that the Greens were in favour of a referendum).<br /><br />As it was, 98% or more of MPs elected in 2015 belonged to parties whose manifesto was in favour of remaining in the EU. In the referendum 18 months later only 48% of the electorate supported remain. The FPTP system gave an outcome in terms of MPs which was horrendously biased against leaving the EU. Had Parliament been representative, then the matter of leaving the EU would have happened in a more orderly fashion and Johnson would never have become Prime Minister.<br />TeeJayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02894564884420913780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-42325670926021770522023-05-24T12:17:02.675+00:002023-05-24T12:17:02.675+00:00This is quite simply, a deflation spiral where the...This is quite simply, a deflation spiral where the victim is punished and perpetrator continues to grow. The EU is rigged in favour of those with financial assets against the very real interests of people. One of the main reasons Britain is better off outside the EU, what we need now is for the British people to realise how genuine government intervention directed at increasing public provision can not only reduce inflation but improve their well being in the process. Mervyn Hydehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10509054505553883594noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-39891821790726200852023-05-21T06:42:51.484+00:002023-05-21T06:42:51.484+00:00Going back to the previous period of Labour govern...Going back to the previous period of Labour government, the obvious point of comparison would be with the gradual rise of the Lib Dems in the 2000s. They weren't clearly to the left of Labour, but certainly a lot of their momentum seemed to come from issues where they could find common cause with disgruntled parts of the Labour "base", such as the Iraq war, tuition fees, and the excesses of Labour "law and order" policies. It's true though that the Lib Dems were fundamentally inoffensive to the economic interests of the kind of people who own or work for the media; an anti-Labour-leadership insurgency from the left on economic issues (demanding nationalization of utilities, say, or a public housebuilding programme) would be much less media-aligned.Colinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17472849515808155408noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-68965275250935291332023-05-13T19:41:13.806+00:002023-05-13T19:41:13.806+00:00People painting government as just another user of...People painting government as just another user of the finance system. Just another competitor for loanable funds that need to be constrained for the betterment of business and rentiers, beholden to the God of the market and overseen by the high priests at the Fed.<br /><br />It's a framing issue. Politics is all about successfully reframing an issue.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-67551695619547792382023-05-11T17:49:37.062+00:002023-05-11T17:49:37.062+00:00"....but from the 1980s until around the Glob..."....but from the 1980s until around the Global Financial Crisis the UK economy grew as fast or faster than these economies."<br /><br />So for the period when the UK North Sea Oil and gas production reached a significant level of output until the time when it started to significantly decline the UK economy did rather well. How do you explain that I wonder? Economics is a complete mystery to me.TeeJayhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02894564884420913780noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2546602206734889307.post-65923917800495871452023-05-11T12:10:01.722+00:002023-05-11T12:10:01.722+00:00"basic MMT does hark back to post-war policie..."basic MMT does hark back to post-war policies it does also use demand management and the Phillips curve to control inflation. With a job guarantee what changes is the number of people on the JG scheme, rather than unemployment"<br /><br />Sorry, I'm at something of a loss over this bit. Your objection to MMT has almost always been that it offers NO facility to combat inflation ("no inflation brake"), and when MMTers have pointed out to you that it advocates cutting spending while the economy is growing to make sure it doesn't overheat, and a jobs guarantee, you insisted that they wouldn't work. (Never been terribly clear why.)<br /><br />Are you now saying you were wrong on these details? Not challenging you on this, I'd just like to understand the apparent discrepancy.Martin Odonihttp://thegreatcritique.wordpress.comnoreply@blogger.com