Will the UK Conservatives become like the Republican Party?

It is probably no exaggeration to say that most people within European countries view the US Republican Party with a mixture of amusement and horror. It is largely why the vast majority of Europeans supported Obama in the last election.  I think a major reason for this is the attitude of so many in the GOP to science.  Most Europeans do not know whether to laugh or cry when half the Republican candidates for President appear to reject the theory of evolution.

The theory of evolution may not be a hot topic in Europe, but that does not mean we are immune to the same tendencies that created today’s Republican Party. I would argue that attitudes to climate change represent an acid test of whether ideology has overtaken evidence in parties of the right. The UK in particular appears to be at a critical point in this respect. While the official Conservative line recognises the importance of trying to deal with man-made climate change, a significant proportion of Conservative MPs are now promoting climate change denial. Deniers are given wide coverage (and often support) in the largely right wing UK press, and perhaps as a result the UK Chancellor, George Osborne, has been quite antagonistic towards ‘green’ policies.

The hypothesis of man-made climate change does not have quite the same scientific status as the theory of evolution. The consensus of scientists on climate change is overwhelming and impressive – as the latest IPCC report makes clear – but the nature of the problem means that uncertainties will remain huge. I have had conversations with some in my own institution who express scepticism. However I have yet to talk to any scientist who is so sure of their scepticism that they would argue against taking a precautionary view, which means taking action now. Climate change denial (the position that we should effectively ignore the problem) is almost exclusively found on the political right, which surely suggests that views are being governed by something other than an objective appraisal of the science.

This is clearly important in its own right. But I think it must also be an indicator of how far a party is prepared to disregard evidence in pursuit of ideological goals. Allow something as important as climate change to be decided on quite misplaced ideological grounds instead of the evidence, and what area of policy will be safe from similar treatment?

I suspect many may think I’m going over the top here. The Conservatives becoming like the Republicans – don’t be silly. The fight in the UK is all about capturing the centre ground, surely? But if that is what you believe, I would ask how much hard evidence you have for that view? Of course the Conservative Party cannot be openly seen to be becoming like the Republicans, because of the observation I started this post with. So there are one or two issues – Gay Marriage, support for foreign aid – where Cameron can say he is facing down his right wing. But on virtually every other major issue, the question is whether current policy will just duplicate the shifts created by Margaret Thatcher (e.g. in increasing poverty) or go beyond it (e.g. in reducing the role of the state). The modus operandi for most political commentators is that the main parties locate themselves just to one side of an immovable centre ground, but we know that has not been true in the past, so why should it be so now?

There appear to be two important (and linked) factors that can explain the growing extremism on the right of US politics. The first is rising inequality, and an ability of those with huge wealth to exercise considerable control over the media and the democratic process. The second is the onward march of neoliberalism as an ideology. Both are strongest in the US, but similar trends are apparent elsewhere. So for Europe not to succumb to the same shifts in the political landscape, we need to invoke some form of US exceptionalism, which means it ‘cannot happen here’? There are obvious candidates, like the importance of religion and racism, but it is not obvious to me that these are critical in explaining what has happened in the US. (If I knew more, I might be able to use other countries like Australia as evidence in this debate: see John Quiggin here.)

I once wrote a post that tried to suggest one reason for US exceptionalism: the lack of a state controlled TV, and the absence of any restrictions of the political positions that TV companies can promote. In the UK, for example, I argued that the existence of the BBC tended to emphasise centrist views, and come down quite hard on political extremes. While I think there is something in that argument, I now suspect I was a little too sanguine about its importance for two linked reasons. First, if crazy ideas like climate change denial can infiltrate their way into one of the mainstream political parties, and these ideas are supported by large sections of the press, then the BBC becomes conflicted between staying with the science or being ‘balanced’ in political terms. Second, if the right wing party is in power, it can apply financial pressure on the BBC to go for balance rather than go with the evidence. We are seeing exactly that happen now in the BBC’s reporting of climate change. The BBC does recognise the issue, but may not have the ability to impose a solution. 

[Postscript. See also here. The select committee evidence is here: in particular page 8.]

I think this should worry anyone who believes in evidence based policymaking. The danger for those on the right is a belief that this process can be managed and controlled, so that the actual influence of crazy ideas on policy is marginal. Both the example of the Republican Party, and Cameron’s attempts to appease those on the right of his own party and UKIP voters, show the view that the establishment will always prevail is naive.

So what can the Conservative Party, and other centre right parties in Europe, do to prevent them becoming like the Republican Party in the US? In the 1980s in the UK, the Labour Party faced a similar problem. The solution that emerged was to make a virtue of attacking those further to the left, and the values they upheld. The repeal of clause IV from the party’s constitution was a classic example. However there is a key difference: New Labour never faced a serious electoral threat from disaffected Old Labour voters, and those further to the left never had any support in the media. In contrast, Cameron has UKIP and an extreme right wing press to contend with. (I suggest here that the two problems are linked). So in his case standing up to his right wing could be an immediate electoral liability, which is why he has until now been more likely to appease than oppose. The pessimistic conclusion for those who believe in evidence based policy may be that there is nothing that can stop the Republicanisation of the UK Conservative Party.