GE2017 and the stages of Leaver grief

After the Brexit vote, various people had fun talking about the stages of Remainer grief, going from denial through bargaining (we can still reverse this) to acceptance. But I think there is an analogous process for Leavers, where they begin to regret their decision and realise that they have made a serious mistake. For many of them we are in the bargaining stage, where somehow the situation can be retrieved as long as the negotiations with the EU are handled well. For them this is what the election is about.

We have to start with one interesting fact that should be noted more often. As YouGov’s Brexit tracker shows, the UK remains as divided on the issue of Brexit as it was a year ago. As I have noted before, this is slightly surprising, because over the last year it has become clear to most Leavers that Brexit will involve a cut in their standard of living, whereas before the vote most Leavers did not expect this and furthermore reported that they did not regard a cut in their living standards as a price worth paying to reduce immigration. But voting Leave was about much more than economics, so people are likely to be reluctant to admit they made a mistake that quickly. As Mark Twain said, “It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.”

Hence the stages of grief for Leavers. They have been led to believe, by newspapers and politicians, that as long as the negotiations are played right all will be well: the bargaining stage of grief. Unfortunately for them they are still living in the fantasy world created by the Brexit media and unchallenged by the broadcast media. The fantasy is to view the forthcoming EU negotiations as some great battle of wills. As Stephen Fisher notes, the negotiations are constantly framed in pugilistic terms. This is why the Conservatives are polling at around 45%, despite all the mistakes of the Tory campaign.

Hence, also, the attraction of the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ line. Leavers need to believe that walking away is a credible threat that will unlock the benefits of Brexit. But the reality is painfully different. If you want an eloquent explanation of this read Martin Wolf if you can, otherwise here is the short version. The EU knows that No Deal would be a disaster for the UK. It would be painful for the EU too, but not so painful as to make them offer the UK any significant favours. Their overriding objective is to ensure the UK will be worse off under Brexit, not as some punishment but to ensure EU survival. Given that No Deal will be so much worse for the UK than the EU, and as the clock is already ticking, the EU are in a position where they can pretty well dictate terms. To the extent that this is a game, we lost it the moment Article 50 was triggered.

The EU negotiations are still very important, but for the UK it is more a matter of making choices rather than extracting concessions. There are many kinds of Brexit. In thinking about who would be the best negotiator for the UK, the most important question to ask is who would make the right choices. Theresa May, by focusing so much on immigration and the European court, has already made two very bad decisions. She seems to be rather good at bad decisions. Personal qualities matter to a lesser extent, but success involves empathy and trust, not obstinacy. [1]

Unfortunately much of the country is still lost to the fiction that the negotiations are a battle of wills where the UK can emerge victorious if it is stubborn enough. While the ‘strong and stable’ line did not survive inspection, I suspect the ‘coalition of chaos’ mantra will begin to work in the last week of the campaign if the polls tighten. Hugo Dixon makes a strong case that in reality a hung parliament would actually be a good thing in many ways. However it is a case that is very difficult to get across in short soundbites, and the fact that there are a multitude of permutations will sound like chaos to many. In addition, the various possibilities are the stuff political commentators love talking about (see GE2015), so this apparent chaos will get plenty of airtime. That, despite her best efforts, should see May through to a decent majority on 8th June.

But this will not put an end to Leavers grief, but just delay and heighten it. Depression is likely to follow as the reality of the negotiations become clear. In all likelihood the economy and real wages will continue to stagnate, and the improvement in public services promised by the Brexiteers will not materialise. Theresa May once warned that the Conservatives had become known as the nasty party. Her actions now are ensuring that it forever becomes known as the party that embraced a disastrous Brexit.

[1] Her lies are also getting worse. At least ‘I’m calling the election because I need a strong mandate’ sounded plausible until you thought about it, but ‘I’m not joining a debate because I’m busy preparing for the negotiations’ wouldn’t fool a 10 year old.