Forecasting which political party will win the next election three or more years out, much like economic forecasts of what growth or inflation will be in two years’ time, is setting yourself up to fail . But learning from errors can still be useful. Only a year and a half ago, I wrote a long post entitled “As things stand, the chances of defeating Johnson at the next election are minuscule”. It was full of analysis about why Johnson had won in 2019, about how Labour would have to appeal to social conservatives to win and how difficult that would be without, at least, some form of progressive alliance.
I stand by that analysis, and indeed by being friendlier to the Liberal Democrats and social conservatives Labour have gone down the route I suggested they needed to do (given a FPTP electoral system).  However the title of that post now looks embarrassing, with Johnson forced out and the polls suggesting an overall majority for Labour if an election was held today.