Transforming the politics of immigration

 

Much public discussion about immigration, including much of the print and broadcast media, negates rather than promotes understanding. The most obvious example is that polling companies still ask voters whether they think immigration is too high, and those in the media treat the results of those polls as indicative of what voters really think. As a result, much media discussion about immigration views it as a problem, and the solution involves reducing the number of immigrants coming to the UK.

Why do I think that negates understanding? In my view it is like asking voters whether they think taxes are too high, and then framing all public discussion of taxation around how to get taxes down. With taxes we know (now at least) better than that. The right question to ask is whether people want lower taxes and lower public spending, because the two go together. If I do a google search for polls about whether taxes are too high, most results present voters with that tax/public spending trade-off. The opposite is also true. Asking politicians how they would pay for additional public spending has become ubiquitous (although less so for Conservative politicians who want to cut taxes).

If we exclude asylum seekers, students and dependents, then most immigration today involves people coming to the UK to do specific jobs. Making it more difficult for firms to employ immigrants would have consequences, just like reducing taxes has consequences. This is why, when voters are asked about skilled immigrants, they have substantially more favourable views than for immigration in general. Furthermore, although voters want less rather than more low skilled immigration, when specific occupations are mentioned that antagonism is substantially reduced. As Stephen Bush noted recently, there is public dismay at the recent drop in immigrants into the health and social care sector.

Of course one reason we don’t have more joined up discussion of immigration is that large sections of the media and the political class don’t want us to. It suits a Conservative opposition to pretend that immigration is always too high, and to blame the government for this. In fact it’s worse than this. The whole Conservative political project today relies on talking up the ‘problem of immigration’, and their media arm is more than happy to oblige by talking about ‘waves’ and ‘invasions’ in much the same way as it did last time the Tories were in opposition.

When Labour was in opposition it felt obliged to nod along to most of this, and only raise their hand to object at some of the most egregious policies, like the Rwanda scheme. After all, they knew that if immigration was a problem the voters would see the government rather than the opposition as responsible. Now Labour are in government the situation is very different, but so far the rhetoric coming from Labour has not noticeably changed. In this respect it appears to be following a similar path to the later Blair and Brown governments.

In a powerful piece, Nesrine Malik suggests this is both regrettable and inevitable. She writes

“What [Keir Starmer] should say is that immigration is not “out of control”. That we do, in fact, have control of our borders, and that the vast majority who come to the country are allowed in after meeting an extremely high visa threshold. That we do in fact, invite many of them in, to fill gaps in our health and care sectors, and that those who come as students, or to work in the private sector, pay hefty residence permit fees and pay twice for the NHS, in taxes and in NHS surcharge.

[Keir Starmer] will not say this, because the illusion that immigration is something that a government can fully “control”, that is not subject to economic dynamics and the needs of public infrastructure, is important to maintain. Shattering this illusion makes it difficult for a government to present itself as having a “solution” to the problem of a country that, as Starmer previously said, needs to be “weaned” off immigration.”

While I’m convinced that such an approach is regrettable (who wants public discussion based on falsehoods), I am far from convinced that keeping it so is in Labour’s interests. While the government may benefit in the short term from falling immigration numbers, there will come a point when that trend is reversed, and the Conservative media machine will make sure everyone knows about it. When that happens, a Labour government is no more likely than the last Conservative government to implement measures that will significantly control numbers, because of the economic damage that will do. In that situation, keeping the debate at the primitive ‘immigration is a problem’ level will hurt Labour a lot.

According to some reports, those around Starmer believe that if they can show the government can work to improve people’s lives, and restore faith in government, this will lessen the attraction to voters of right wing populist attacks on immigration. This is a reasonable point. As I have noted before, austerity is associated with an increase in votes for right wing populist parties, because socially conservative voters are very susceptible to claims that poor services are due to increased use by ‘outsiders’.

However there are two reasons why the immigration issue will not go away under a Labour government. First, it seems highly likely that it will take some time for Labour to return public services to acceptable levels (‘to end austerity’). Second, the experience of the last Labour government suggests the political right can still use immigration as a powerful weapon even in economic good times.

Having a more sensible debate is not inconsistent with ‘weaning the UK’ off immigration, if this means ending the situation where pay in certain sectors is so poor that immigration is necessary to fill vacancies. However many of those sectors are in the public sector or depend on public sector finance, so once again changing that situation is likely to take considerable time, which leaves Labour vulnerable to right wing attacks on immigration when numbers stop falling. It is also obvious that a Labour government should end cases where immigration is used by unscrupulous employers as a means to exploit their workforce.

So it seems clear to me that it is not in Labour’s interests to keep the debate on immigration at its current primitive level, where immigration is always seen as a problem and trade-offs are ignored. As in other areas, Labour’s approach to this issue in opposition (what Mark Thomas calls a ‘small target strategy’) will not work when it is in government. This isn’t a call for Labour politicians to be ‘braver’ in talking about immigration. It is instead an argument that making the debate better and more informed is in Labour’s own longer interests.

The reason for this is straightforward. As long as the public debate refuses to acknowledge the benefits of immigration, it gives the political right the space to make false claims about why immigration is a problem. They can claim, in particular, that immigrants are responsible for poor public services, whereas the reality is that on average immigration benefits the public finances, and immigrants provide much of the manpower in key public services. When Labour politicians fail to counter these false claims, they leave the impression among many voters that these false claims are true.

As I noted here, pretending to be ‘concerned about immigration’ but not doing anything significant to reduce numbers because of the impact this will have on the economy has played a key role in bringing down three recent Prime Ministers. Attitudes towards immigration have become more favourable since Brexit in part because the benefits immigrants bring have become clearer. It is to Labour’s advantage to build on that, just as it is to the Conservative’s and Reform’s benefit to reverse it.

The time for Labour politicians to start changing the public debate on immigration is when aggregate immigration numbers are falling, which means this is an issue they need to address sooner rather than later. Whether the Labour leadership recognise this is another matter,

October Budget 1: can economic growth end austerity?

 

The October Budget will tell us a great deal about how Rachel Reeves will act as Chancellor during this Labour government. As a result, before the Budget I intend to write a number of posts setting out the main macroeconomic issues as I see it. This first sets the scene, by questioning the idea that improvements in public services will come from better economic growth.

In her 2024 Mais lecture Chancellor Rachel Reeves said that

“it is through growth and only through growth that we can sustainably resource strong public services, raise living standards, and compete internationally.”

During the election, when Labour was pressed on how it would find money to improve public services while at the same time ruling out raising taxes on working people, the fall back position seemed to be that this would come from growth.

At first sight this idea is straightforward, and can be encapsulated in the following sentence. Higher real growth means rising real incomes, and higher income brings in higher taxes at existing tax rates, providing the finance for extra government spending, which allows the employment of more doctors, nurses, teachers and so on. However this simple intuition can be very misleading. To see why, consider the following very similar sentence. With higher inflation, higher nominal growth means rising nominal incomes, and higher income brings in higher taxes at existing tax rates, providing the finance for extra government spending, which allows the employment of more doctors, nurses, teachers and so on. The only change I have made to the original sentence is to replace the word ‘real’ with ‘nominal’, but the idea that inflation helps fund additional public sector jobs sounds wrong.

It is wrong, if by inflation we mean price and wage increases across the board, including wages in the public sector. Higher taxes in nominal terms are mainly going to pay for higher wages in the public sector, and there is little or nothing left over to increase public sector employment. But exactly the same point can apply if we are talking about real growth, depending crucially on where that growth is coming from. The most obvious example is real growth due to an increasing working population. More people earning incomes will raise total tax revenue, and those additional taxes can pay for more doctors, nurses, teachers etc, but the number of doctors, nurses or teachers per working person will be much the same.

The more interesting example is where economic growth comes from higher private sector labour productivity. This normally leads to higher private real wages, and therefore higher taxes. But if real wages in the public sector keep pace with those in the private sector, then these higher taxes mainly pay for higher real wages for public sector workers rather than for more doctors, nurses or teachers. [See postscript for a bit more explanation.]

This point is very familiar to economists since the 1960s, when William Baumol argued that rising real wages in jobs that saw productivity growth would lead to higher real wages in service sector jobs, particularly public sector services like health and education, where productivity growth was much harder to achieve. Baumol suggested that this kind of unbalanced growth, with productivity in service sectors lagging behind productivity elsewhere in the economy, was the typical pattern in all economies.

Of course the benefits of real or nominal growth in terms of higher wages may be unequally shared. Public sector workers may have their wages reduced relative to those in the private sector, which will leave some money to be spent on additional public sector workers. That is exactly what the last Conservative government did, except some of that money went on tax cuts rather than higher public sector employment. But Labour have made it clear that for the moment at least that is not a strategy they will follow, for the very sensible reason that it is not sustainable. Reducing the relative pay of public sector workers creates both industrial unrest and staff shortages, which is why Baumol assumed it wouldn’t be the norm.

The only way growth gets you significantly more doctors, nurses and teachers is if labour productivity gains are spread throughout the economy, including the public sector. But the idea that, for given levels of expenditure, better public sector productivity will allow the employment of more doctors, nurses and teachers is both simple and obvious. If that is what people mean by growth delivering better public services, why not mention public sector productivity directly?

The same reasoning shows why data showing trends in public sector spending can be a very misleading indicator of changes in the quality of public service provision, even when that data is shown in real terms. Higher real spending on education, for example, may reflect a combination of higher real wages for teachers combined with little productivity growth, rather than more teachers being employed.

This is why, whenever I look at trends in public spending over time, I try to look at public spending relative to GDP, and how that measure has changed in the past. That controls for inflation, but it also controls for real growth that is spread across public as well as private sector workers. As a result, public spending relative to GDP gives you a better idea of whether public services are getting better or worse than numbers that only control for inflation.

While public spending relative to GDP is a better measure of the provision of public services than either real or nominal spending levels, it still may give a misleading picture. In education, for example, it is important to look at changes in the total population of pupils. In health, as I have noted many times, factors like an ageing population mean that spending relative to GDP tends to rise over time in almost all OECD countries, so a constant level of health spending relative to GDP (as we saw from 2010 to 2019) is consistent with a deterioration in service provision, leading to increased waiting times for example.

If the idea that growth naturally helps end austerity is misleading, there is a more subtle sense in which it may enable it. To put it at its most simple, it may be politically easier to increase tax rates when real incomes are growing strongly compared to when they are stagnant. In terms of resources, higher taxes moderate the growth in private sector spending relative to increases in productivity, which frees up labour that can then be diverted to providing better public services.

However, using growth in this way to end austerity appears to have been ruled out by the Chancellor with her pledge not to raise taxes on working people. Instead she will have to rely on increasing more minor (in terms of revenue raised) taxes. In my next post on the October Budget I will look at how much taxes have to rise to achieve in any meaningful sense an end to austerity.

Postscript (22/08/24)

Feedback suggests I should have added something to make this clearer. Suppose, for simplicity, that all public spending goes on the wages of public sector workers, and that total taxes = total public spending. Now imagine an X% increase in private sector productivity, which leads to an X% increase in private sector wages. Public sector wages rise by X% to keep relative wages unchanged. For higher growth to pay for additional doctors, nurses or teachers, taxes would have to rise by more than X%. They might do so at the margin because of real fiscal drag, but the great majority of the tax increase will pay for higher public sector wages.   

Racist riots and the Conservative party

 

There is no doubt that the actions of the most senior members of the Conservative party have encouraged the riots by right wing racist thugs that we saw recently in the UK. That encouragement was not some unavoidable consequence of legitimate policy positions, but through actions or words that senior Conservative politicians could have avoided without changing any policies. Yet ironically these riots during a leadership election give the party a unique opportunity to turn a page, and turn their back on Farage type populism. The signs are they will not take that opportunity.

In this post I will give two examples of how the Conservative party encouraged right wing thugs to attack hotels housing asylum seekers or attack Mosques. The first is by calling asylum seekers that come to the UK by small boats from France ‘illegal’. The second is by tolerating, even at the most senior level within the party, Islamophobic language. [1]

The 2021 Nationality and Borders Act, introduced by Priti Patel, criminalised those who arrived in the UK without authorisation, even if they subsequently claimed asylum. From that point on, Conservative politicians almost without exception referred to anyone crossing the Channel in small boats as illegal migrants, and much of the media followed suit. This had no policy purpose. This act, unlike subsequent legislation, didn’t stop the government processing asylum claims, and anyone who successfully claimed asylum was not immediately arrested because they had come here illegally. Most ‘illegal migrants’ who came via small boats claimed asylum, and most of those claims were granted.

So why introduce the term ‘illegal migrant’ for asylum seekers if it made no difference? If you talk about refugees, that immediately brings to mind why people are seeking asylum - war or persecution - which generates among most people sympathy with the refugee. If instead you talk about illegal migrants, that brings to mind criminality rather than sympathy. This is classic populism: create a category of people who are outsiders and do what you can to demonise those outsiders.

Of course this was not the only aspect of how the Conservatives treated asylum seekers that was gratuitously inflammatory. Cutting back on resources to process asylum claims meant a large backlog of people were caught in limbo waiting for government decisions, many of which the government housed in hotels. Those being processed were not allowed to work. This was a gift to those like Farage who could suggest that ‘illegal migrants’ were being gifted free accommodation at the taxpayers expense. More generally Conservative rhetoric encouraged the idea that the UK could be highly selective about the countries from where asylum claims would be considered, which goes against the whole concept of a refugee. Calling them illegal was a rhetorical device to make that seem acceptable.

All this encourages racists to attack the hotels where asylum seekers are staying waiting for their claims to be processed. It doesn’t excuse that behaviour, nothing does, but by denigrating those who should have our (provisional) sympathy it makes it easier for racist thugs to believe that such attacks are justified. Elite rhetoric can easily normalize far-right views and behaviour.

The new Labour government very quickly started using the term ‘irregular’ rather than ‘illegal’ migration for those coming here via small boats. James Cleverly, one of the candidates for leader of the Conservative party, said 

“Changing 'illegal migration' to 'irregular migration' will be seen as an invitation to the people smugglers". 

Another, Robert Jenrick, tweeted “you misspelt illegal”. A third candidate is Pritti Patel, who started the whole thing off.

Islamophobia is a generic problem in the Conservative party. Prime Minister David Cameron had no problem joining an Islamophobic campaign against Sadiq Khan for mayor of London, with remarks he later had to apologise for. In a more recent contest for London mayor, then Conservative MP Lee Anderson had the whip suspended for saying “Islamists” have “got control” of Khan, but many Conservative MPs went on the record to criticise that suspension. The deputy prime minister, Oliver Dowden, declined to say whether Anderson’s comments were Islamophobic.

Baroness Warsi, former co-chairwomen of the Conservative party, has said that the party is using anti-Muslim rhetoric as a campaign tool. Suella Braverman, a former Conservative home secretary, suggested that Islamists are in control of the UK, with sharia law and "the Islamist mob" taking over communities. Former Conservative Prime Minister Johnson wrote about the niqab, a face-covering veil worn by some Muslim women, as resembling "letter boxes" and compared those who wore them to bank robbers. Conservative MP Nusrat Ghani claimed that a party whip told her that she had been sacked from her role as transport minister because her Muslim faith "was making colleagues uncomfortable".

That Islamophobia remains. Returning to the contest to be party leader, here is Robert Jenrick recently saying that anyone publicly shouting ‘God is the Greatest’ in Arabic should be immediately arrested. Imagine the reaction if a candidate from any political party had said that anyone shouting hallelujah should be immediately arrested. If the Conservative party uses anti-Muslim rhetoric as a campaign tool, whether against political opponents or internally, then it has to shoulder some responsibility for rioters who attack mosques.

The fact that over 50% of Conservative party members have a negative attitude to Muslims, and almost half think Islam is a threat to the British way of life, is no excuse for Islamophobic statements from Conservative MPs and ministers. Nor is  political pressure from Nigel Farage and Reform an excuse. As I often note, a former Conservative Prime Minister once sacked a Conservative minister for a racist speech, even though that speech was pretty popular among many voters.

There is therefore a precedent for the Conservatives to draw a line that they do not cross on both racism itself and populist language which encourages violence against minorities. Rather than keeping Farage close and competing for those that vote for Reform by mimicking what Farage does, they could attempt to portray Farage as unacceptably extreme. One way to do this became evident during the election, by highlighting Farage’s links to Russia and his lack of support for Ukraine.

Ironically the recent riots have provided another opportunity. The comments by Farage immediately after the murders in Southport have rightly been condemned. Among Conservative voters at least, these recent events have led to a large decline in Farage’s popularity. There may be no better time for a Conservative leader to draw that line as Edward Heath once did.

Unfortunately for all of us that hasn’t happened yet. At the time of writing the bookies favourite to be the next leader of the Conservative party is Robert Jenrick, who thinks asylum seekers should be called illegal and who thinks anyone saying God is the Greatest in Arabic should be immediately arrested. [2] The reason he is favourite to win may reflect the views of Conservative party members, but those in turn reflect a right wing press that demonises immigrants and Muslims. Other candidates for leader have largely kept quiet in the face of the race riots their party’s rhetoric has encouraged.

The root cause of all this is in my view economic. Few Conservative MPs seem prepared to countenance moving to the left on economic issues, by for example following popular opinion and proposing to raise taxes to get better public services. That traps them into relying on socially conservative policies to win votes, and to give those issues salience among enough voters they end up becoming populists, demonising minorities and encouraging racists.

[1] There are many more examples, such as the deliberate downgrading - without evidence - of the threat of far right extremism. These are all examples of a more general phenomenon, which is the adoption of right wing populism by the Conservative party that I discussed here.

[2] Jenrick has also said he would vote for Trump if he was a US citizen.

If Labour is serious about defeating right wing populism, it needs to reform large parts of the media

 

The new Labour government aims to counter the “snake oil charm of populism”. Right wing populism suggests that minorities or outsiders represent a threat to the national majority, and it thereby encourages and excuses the racism we have seen expressed by gangs of thugs terrorising parts of UK cities over the last week.

For too many in the media, as was evident on election night, right wing populism means the likes of Nigel Farage. But as I emphasised here, right wing populism in the UK is far more widespread. The rhetoric used about immigration and asylum by nearly all Conservative MPs is populist. Brexit happened because of right wing populism. Much of this country’s press could reasonably be described as promoting right wing populism. The kind of violence we have seen over the last week has been for many years formented by the language of mainstream political parties and mainstream media.

Good, competent government that does not deliberately set out to inflame divisions within society is important in reducing the appeal of right wing populism. Governing to ensure economic divisions within society are reduced rather than increased is another. Ensuring that prosperity and public service provision in the country as a whole does not stagnate compared to other countries also helps. Unfortunately, even achieving all of these things does not ensure that right wing populism will not prosper.

This is because right wing populism is increasingly seen by particular monied elites as a means of obtaining political power and financial benefits. This is most transparent in the US, where billionaires seem quite happy to openly support a candidate for President that tried to overturn an election he lost and a political party that appears beholden to that candidate and indifferent to democratic norms. In the US, who has the most money to spend is one determinant of who wins elections. There is some evidence that the same is true in the UK, and funding for UK parties increasingly comes from very wealthy individual donors.

While the very wealthy providing financial backing to right wing populists during elections is clearly a problem, in my view a problem that is just, if not more, serious is the very wealthy trying to influence what information the public receives by their funding of media outlets that support right wing populism. Some wealthy individuals have always done this, of course, but the problem is growing, not shrinking, with Musk's takeover of twittter, the advent of GB news and the descent of the Telegraph from a once reasonably serious right wing paper into something almost unhinged (and which may soon be bought by the owner of GB News). This trend is evident in many advanced democracies.

An essential part of democracy is that voters should be able to receive information (news) that is not slanted to fit a particular political viewpoint. When this doesn’t happen then voters receive propaganda, and all the evidence suggests that propaganda can be very effective at influencing how people think and how they vote. When the propaganda involves right wing populism, it isn’t manufacturing consent but rather manufacturing discontent. Misinformation about immigration and asylum seekers is pervasive among right wing politicians and the media. Islamophobia has become endemic on the political right and its press, and feeds the racism so evident among the gangs creating havoc in our cities.

Media outlets can produce propaganda whether they are owned by the state or by individuals. When those from the political right talk about a ‘free press’, they usually mean freedom from the state, not freedom from the views of an individual media owner. In a democracy the media should provide information free from the direct or indirect control of either the state or individual owners. As we saw with the last government and the BBC, state ownership is no guarantee that a media organisation will not advance right wing populist themes, or pander to the populists.

The UK has already suffered serious harm as a result of media outlets that promote right wing populist ideas. The economic costs of Brexit were well known before the 2016 referendum, but a combination of propaganda from most of the press and a broadcast media that balanced that propaganda against the truth meant that many voters didn’t believe those costs would occur. They now have. This shows us that impartiality is a very weak defence against propaganda. If right wing populists claim that Turkey is about to join the EU, and this is balanced against knowledgeable views that they are not, the populist view is promoted without being negated.

Balancing propaganda with the truth may be better than propaganda alone, but it is a totally insufficient way of dealing with propaganda. As Hanna Arendt may have said:

“The ideal subject of totalitarian rule is not the convinced Nazi or the devout communist, but people for whom the distinction between fact and fiction and the distinction between true and false no longer exist”

The moment a truth is presented as merely a claim one side in an argument makes, it delegitimises the concept of truth.

Introducing more media competition in these circumstances doesn’t help, because media outlets rarely just include news. Instead news is often combined with opinion pieces, gossip about celebrities and a whole host of other features that help determine what media outlet any individual consumes. Just as we should not want the information people receive to be determined by the political views of an individual billionaire, we also shouldn’t want them to be determined by which outlet has the best celebrity contacts. Particular social media outlets remain dominant because of network effects.

The only way I can see to stop media outlets producing propaganda is through an effective regulator ensuring that they do not. Unfortunately UK regulators, particularly under the last government, have often proved anything but effective. In some areas direct public sector control is an alternative, but in the case of the media it obviously is not. Effective regulation requires ensuring the independence of the regulators from both those they are regulating (preventing revolving doors) and from politicians.

The reason a media regulator like Ofcom needs to be independent of politicians is obvious. As we saw with Boris Johnson, a right wing populist leader will quickly replace the leaders of a media regulator with those who will follow the populist’s wishes. But this is a generic problem across all regulators. Those who are being regulated can influence the regulator directly, but they can do so indirectly by getting politicians to do that work. I would be interested in ideas about the best way to solve this problem, or for those who say it cannot be solved what the alternative is.

Obviously the kind of media regulator I have in mind goes well beyond what Ofcom currently does. Ofcom’s treatment of GB News has been pathetic. GB News produces propaganda, and should not be allowed a broadcast licence. In my view any print or broadcast media outlet that provides news should be regulated to prevent it producing propaganda. What counts as propaganda and what does not is an important topic with no clear or neat dividing lines, but we are currently so far from where that dividing line is with GB News or some of the right wing press that this discussion at the moment is academic.

For obvious reasons a Conservative government is almost certain not to make media regulation more independent and effective, so the only way this will happen is under a Labour government. Yet Labour politicians, particularly when in opposition or when politically weak, can easily be persuaded by media owners not to pursue measures that might threaten those owners. It seems that this has happened with the second stage of Leveson inquiry. (If you think that inquiry should go ahead, see here.)

Yet if Labour is serious about defeating right wing populism, it cannot let the media landscape become increasingly the plaything of very rich individuals wanting to push a right wing populist agenda. The time to tackle this problem is now, when Labour’s majority is secure and it remains popular in electoral terms. There is no reason to delay, and any delay makes action less likely to happen.