Key myths on asylum, immigration and how to take on the far right

 

There are few subjects where the national debate is so contaminated by disinformation as immigration and asylum. Alan Beattie in the Financial Times described this as a millefeuille of falsehood. This list below is not comprehensive (for example it says nothing about one of our leading export industries, teaching students from overseas), but I’ve tried to focus on areas where the public are clearly and grossly misinformed. (More myths here)

Asylum and Refugees

Myth 1. “There is an ‘invasion’ of people arriving in small boats.”

Around 37,000 people arrived in small boats to claim asylum in 2024, which is just under 4% of the total number of immigrants that came to the UK in that year, That is 0.05% of the UK population. Yet from a YouGov poll only 20% of people correctly thought that there were many more immigrants staying legally than illegally, with almost half believing there were more illegal than legal migrants.

Myth 2. “The number of asylum seekers coming to the UK is out of control”

Someone who successfully claims asylum in the UK is at serious risk if they are returned to the country they came from. So the number of potential asylum seekers is completely out of the UK government’s control. All the UK government can do is either persuade asylum seekers to choose another country (see below), or if it was led by Nigel Farage send them back to their possible death. The UK’s actual record in the 1930s is far from good, but no doubt if Nigel Farage had been in power he would have eagerly sent every Jewish refugee fleeing from the Nazis back to Germany.

Myth 3. “Asylum seekers are particularly attracted to UK because we make it easy for them”

In 2023 the UK processed far less asylum claims than Germany, France or Spain. As a proportion of its population, it processes far fewer asylum claims than the Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark or Finland.

Myth 4. “But those coming on small boats are coming here illegally”

If this was the case, everyone arriving by small boat would be arrested and charged with some crime. They are not, because it is legal for anyone to apply for asylum in the UK. They come by small boat because they cannot get to the UK by any other means, and cannot claim asylum outside the UK.

Myth 5. “But most of those claiming asylum in the UK are economic migrants”

Typically many more asylum claims are successful than are refused.

Myth 6. “It costs the government a huge amount to deal with asylum seekers

In one poll, when asked what the three things the government spent most money on, dealing with asylum seekers and migrants appeared as number two in the list. The reality is completely different. The public vastly overestimates the costs of dealing with asylum seekers.

Myth 7. “Asylum seekers live a life of luxury in hotels”

They don’t. It is illegal for asylum seekers to work in the UK while their claims are processed. If their claim is successful, refugees have to find their own accommodation quickly, which can be difficult if they have no savings. There is no law or Government policy that puts refugees ahead of British Nationals in securing social or council housing because of their identity.

There is a reason why we should be concerned about the number of small boat crossings. It is that these journeys are dangerous to those who make them. The only realistic way to significantly reduce this number of crossings is to increase the number of safe routes for asylum applicants.

That these myths persist is partly because the coverage of this issue in the broadcast media is highly biased to the illiberal right, and highly dishonest. People have a right to claim asylum in the UK, and if the UK makes it impossible for most to claim asylum except if they are physically in the UK, then they will try to get here. By treating small boats as a problem caused by asylum seekers or criminal gangs rather than a consequence of the government's policy to deny safe routes (presumably so we don’t have to take our fair share of refugees), the media is dehumanising refugees.

Immigration

Myth 1. “Net migration is rising and is out of control.”

Net immigration fell from around 800,000 in 2023 to around 400,000 in 2024. Yet when people were asked about this, only 8% thought that migration had decreased.

Myth 2. “Immigration makes it more difficult to see a doctor, get places in schools etc”

Immigrants typically improve the public finances. Crucially, reductions in immigration are likely to be assessed by the OBR as worsening the public finances, so any government that cut back on immigration would have to raise taxes or cut spending on things like health or education.

Myth 3. “Immigration creates a housing shortage.”

Of course any increase in population potentially raises the demand for housing. That only becomes a problem if not enough new houses are built. England does have the second highest population density in the EU, but Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland have far lower densities. The UK has a regional problem, rather than a population problem.

There is a trade-off between immigration and the retirement age. With an ageing population, the costs to the working population of providing pensions and the NHS is likely to become too great without immigration. If immigration was zero, one consequence would likely be a higher retirement age.

Myth 4. “Skilled immigration encourages firms to skimp on training”

There is little evidence of this. Firms that employ skilled migrants tend to do more training.

Myth 5. “Current immigration mostly involves unskilled workers”

The current UK immigration visa scheme is heavily orientated towards skilled workers

Myth 6. “Since we had high net immigration, the economy has tanked. That’s no coincidence.”

Except it is. Study after study tends to show that migration at worst leaves living standards unchanged, and may improve them. The US economy before Trump had high levels of immigration, and is one of the most successful economies in the world.

How to deal with a right wing focus on immigration and asylum

Myth 1. Get close to the right wing position

This idea comes straight from the simple political science spatial model of ‘triangulation’ or ‘accommodation’, and appears to be the approach the current UK government is following. But this model ignores voters’ perceptions of competence and trust. Quite simply, if two parties are similar but party A is in power and has failed to achieve voters’ objectives while party B has made this issue theirs, voters will tend to choose B. The simple spatial model also typically assumes that those voters that the triangulating party has moved away from will still vote for that party (as the lesser of two evils) rather than vote for another party or not vote at all.

Which is why empirical academic research, as well as experience in other countries suggests it is a bad idea for social democratic parties to try and ape the populist right. Current UK experience suggests exactly the same.(Paper here.)

Myth 2. Just get numbers down.

As I noted above, the government cannot control the numbers of people wanting to claim asylum in the UK, and since Brexit it has become more difficult to get other countries to take them instead. It is possible to limit immigration visas or overseas student numbers, but generally that involves a clear economic cost which will also influence government popularity, which is why successive governments haven't tried to do this. 

The pressure coming from the populist right, together with headline polls, may convince ministers that reducing immigration is worth almost any economic cost. But headline polls are highly misleading because they suggest numbers can be reduced costlessly. They are like polls about reducing taxation without mentioning public services. When voters are asked about whether immigration into particular jobs should be reduced, far more prefer current or higher levels of immigration.

In addition, if the disinformation evident in the current public debate tells us anything, it is that getting actual numbers down does not translate into a public perception that things are getting better. Whatever net migration numbers settle down to, the right wing chorus will be that this is too high, and the same is true for small boats.

The alternative to the two strategies above is to develop a distinctive position on both issues, that is not copying populists and which is not about getting numbers down. That distinctive position should be based on what voters say when they are asked questions beyond the simplistic up or down one. When asked, an overwhelming majority of people want to attract the best and the brightest people, even if that increases immigration. A majority also favours immigration if it improves the economy, or reduces skill shortages, or to staff the NHS. A distinctive position would centre on these trade-offs, to make clear that promises to reduce immigration made by other parties were either empty or would be highly damaging if implemented. 

A sensible immigration policy would focus on the causes of high immigration rather than simple numbers, and it would recognise that the UK has an moral obligation to take its fair share of refugees. One of the reasons the myths described above continue to be believed by so many people is that the facts are ignored by most politicians and most people in the media. Some have a motive to ignore reality, but others do not.