In this post
I complained about how little attention the visual media gave to the
fact that the overwhelming majority of economists thought that Brexit
would involve significant long term costs. All I have now is more evidence to back up the argument in that post.
First, I was not alone in these thoughts. Here
is Andrew Scott talking about his foreboding concerning the Brexit
debate: “I just really wasn’t looking forward to the debate
because I knew that it would stifle what are the really important
issues, it would become partisan rather than insightful and that the
economic voice and argument was vulnerable to being politically
sidelined.” [1]
Second, the argument that there will be long term costs with Brexit
has not, as yet, convinced most voters. In this poll,
which is not unique, only 22% of voters thought they would be worse
off as a result of Brexit. It seems unlikely that voters are unaware
that David Cameron and George Osborne have claimed they will be worse
off, but quite rightly they may be very distrustful of what politicians say. Virtually no voters will have examined the economic
arguments on both sides and made up their own minds. Crucially,
unless they read one of the broadsheets, they will have no idea that there
is such an overwhelming consensus among economists.
Third, we now have more evidence besides letters that there is indeed
an overwhelming consensus among economists, thanks
to the Observer. True, not quite as overwhelming as I had imagined,
but 9/10 counts as a consensus for economists.
Fourth, there is polling evidence that the public do have a high
level of trust in what academics say. Here is the relevant data
(source):