Why tactical voting in this election could change the nature of the UK’s political debate

 

If Labour are bound to win this week, is there any point to tactical voting? Some on the left have suggested voting for a more progressive candidate who has no hope of winning, even if this might contribute to electing a Conservative MP. The rationale is to ‘send a message to Labour’. The current Labour leadership have treated some on the left of the party very badly, and the anger at that is justified. However I remain at a loss to see quite how a few extra percentage points for left wing candidates will influence those running Labour, when they have just won a landslide victory so soon after the large 2019 defeat.

There remain sound reasons to vote tactically, even if a Labour government is assured. For example who your local MP is does matter to many people in a constituency, particularly those who often through misfortune need their MP’s help. In this particular election tactical voting could also do something quite unique, which is to prevent the Conservative party becoming the official opposition. This post is about why that outcome is one which would have a huge progressive influence on UK politics.

There is a natural tendency to focus either on the party in power, or for those who take an active interest in politics on the party closest to our own views. (Yes, I know there are exceptions). However which party is the official opposition matters in numerous ways, beyond the parliamentary mechanics and ‘short money’. As anyone from other political parties will tell you, the media debate tends to be hogged by the government and official opposition. Furthermore, the issues that the government or official opposition care about ends up being what our Westminster obsessed media talks about. This can be very frustrating when the government and opposition share a view which a majority of experts see as incorrect.

This tendency is reinforcing, because my impression is that what some voters tell pollsters are important issues are the subjects they have recently seen covered by the media, which in turn will be driven in part by the debate between government and opposition. So while the government always has the most power in defining the political media landscape, the official opposition plays an important role as well. Third parties rarely get a look in when it comes to influencing the media debate.

We can be fairly sure what a Conservative opposition will want to talk about most during the next four or five years, because we have seen what issues they have focused on during the election and the past year or so. On economics it will be all about how Labour are raising rather than cutting taxes, but otherwise it will be immigration, asylum seekers and any other issue that they think will be popular with socially conservative voters. As most voters want to see better public services rather than lower taxes, it will be these socially conservative issues that dominate the UK political debate. Plus ça change.

Is it possible that a heavy defeat will lead to a sea change in the politics of the Conservative party? Almost certainly not, particularly as the party will be immediately thrown into a leadership battle where the views of the membership and the right wing press will be decisive. The party will not move towards the centre on economic issues because these groups and party donors do not want it to, and so pushing socially conservative views and attacking social liberals is all it has left.

If you need any further evidence, just look at what happened after 1997. After that overwhelming defeat, the Conservative party didn’t rethink their policy stance to be more in line with the views of voters. They certainly didn’t ask what had gone wrong with Thatcher’s neoliberal project. Instead they courted socially conservative voters by attacking Labour on immigration. It was the start of a journey that would lead to Brexit, embrace right wing populism and end with widespread corruption and the absurd Rwanda plan.

The Conservative party is now well to the right on social issues compared to 1997. In addition, it will have to deal with Farage, and all the evidence we have is that this will involve accommodation rather than hostility. Most Conservatives will tell themselves that the main reason the party lost so badly in 2024 was because the right wing vote was split, and that this split has to end. Whatever accommodation is reached, it is not going to make the Conservative party more socially liberal!

So if you hoped that a Labour government would mean that we would stop talking endlessly about immigration, or ‘illegal’ asylum seekers, or whether greening the economy is going too fast, you will be disappointed if the Conservative party remains the official opposition. The Conservative party as the official opposition will have at least two important negative impacts. First, it will influence to some extent what the Labour government does and what its policy positions are. Second, on many issues the views of socially liberal and economically left wing voters will be largely ignored by the media.

Perhaps one of the more important examples of this is Brexit. The Conservatives will pounce on anything they can claim involves the Labour government undoing or betraying Brexit, and that may make Labour overcautious in how quickly it decides to take major steps back towards the EU. As a result, it may delay rejoining the Customs Union or Single Market well beyond the tipping point among voters that I discussed here. That in turn will damage the economy, and for that reason the government’s own chance of survival.

The final, obvious point to make is that official oppositions tend to be the party that forms a new government if and when the party in power is voted out. A Conservative party well to the right on social and economic issues will find that hard to do, but as I have stressed recently governments can get unlucky, sometimes through no fault of their own (or faults which the opposition more than share). Even if that doesn’t happen, voters eventually get bored with the party in power, and become attracted by a leader of a Conservative opposition that has the sense to keep how right wing the party is as out of sight as possible. For this reason, a Conservative opposition will eventually become a Conservative government. Once again, the evidence we have from 1997 onwards is that a future Conservative government will quickly undo most of the good things the previous Labour government managed to do, and then go further to add additional layers of destruction on top. As I argued here, socially conservative policies also tend to screw up the economy.

Now imagine if on Friday we learn that the Liberal Democrats have just beaten the Conservatives to get second place in terms of seat numbers, and so will become the official opposition to a Labour government. What the overall dividing lines between a Labour government and Liberal Democrat opposition will be are difficult to predict, but this in itself will make the UK political debate more interesting and probably more informed.

Neither a LibDem opposition or Labour government will attempt to push the very illiberal positions currently promoted by the Conservatives. The Libems will not because they are social liberals, and the Labour government will not because they will (initially at least) still regard the Conservatives as their main enemies and will not want to play into their hands. (See what happened to the Tories with Reform at this election.) Indeed it seems more likely that both Labour and the LibDem opposition will attempt to portray current Conservative positions on asylum seekers for example as well outside the Overton Window of acceptable political discourse.

If that seems too good to be true, recall that this was once the norm in the UK. The positions of some Conservatives and Farage are not very different from those pushed by far right groups like the BNP in the past, yet these far right groups, and the occasional Tory like Enoch Powell who took similar positions, were ostracised by the political mainstream. It would be to the political advantage of a Labour government and LibDem opposition to do the same again.

Becoming a third party would also pose more serious problems for the internal cohesion of the Conservative party. One nation Conservatives have so far rather meekly gone along with the illiberal rhetoric of their party, even though they themselves have very different social views. Having access to power or the possibility of power is a powerful adhesive keeping the Conservative party together. But if the possibility of power seems remote, that may be enough to push the few remaining one nation Tories to switch parties after any Farage accommodation.

Because the Conservatives are deeply unpopular, and in addition are losing votes to Farage, this election is an almost unique opportunity. Some recent polls put the LibDems within reach of the Conservatives in terms of seat numbers (see also here), and one has the Tories in third place. The eventual result will depend entirely on the extent and efficiency of tactical voting. As I pointed out here, there appear to be only around a dozen seats where the Conservatives are reasonably safe from tactical voting. Every other Conservative seat can be won as long as voters know which candidate is most likely to beat the incumbent.

In an appendix I have listed those seats where it makes sense for tactical voters to vote either Green or LibDem. In all other seats a tactical vote should be for Labour. Tactical voting for Labour in normally safe Conservatives seats where Labour are the main challenger remains vital. The LibDem total of seats is certain not to exceed 100, so it needs people who would otherwise vote LibDem or Green to vote Labour in numerous and previously safe Conservative seats to keep the Tory seat total down.

Appendix

This only covers seats in England and Wales.

There are two seats where tactical voting should be for Greens, as local polls show they are the strongest challenger

North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley

The Greens are also likely to win in Brighton Pavilion and Bristol Central, but the Conservatives are very unlikely to win so if you prefer Labour or the LibDems, vote for them.

Seats where tactical voting should be for LibDems

Bicester & Woodstock - local poll has LD = Lab, but majority of MRP and all TVs for LD

Brecon - most MRPs have LD as main challenger and all TVs suggest LD

Carshalton - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger

Cheadle - Lib Dem constituency from 1997 to 2015, all MRPs have LD as main challenger

Chelmsford - almost all MRPs have LD as main challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Cheltenham - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD, was LD seat

Chichester - almost all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Chippenham - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Didcot & Wantage - most MRPs have LD as main challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Dorking - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

East Hampshire - most MRPs have LD as main challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Eastbourne - LD twice won in recent history, always clear 2nd. MRP + TV clear LD choice

Eastleigh - LD MPs in recent history, MRP + TV clear LD choice

Ely - most MRPs have LD as main challenger and all TVs suggest LD

Epsom - most MRPs have LD as main challenger and most TVs suggest LD

Esher - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Farnham - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Glastonbury - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Godalming - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD. Hunt’s seat.

Guildford - all MRPs have LD as clear challenger, all TVs suggest LD

Harpenden & Berkhamsted - almost all MRPs suggest LD, all TVs suggest LD, LD target.

Harrogate - past elections, all MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

Hazel Grove - recent LD MPs. All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

Henley - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

Honiton - New constituency. Almost all MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

Horsham - Almost all MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

Lewes - LD MPs in past. All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

Maidenhead - Most MRPs and all TVs suggest LD. May’s old seat.

Melksham & Devizes - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD is clear challenger.

Mid Dorset - LD have won in past. All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD is clear challenger.

Mid Sussex - Most MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

Newbury - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as clear challenger.

North Cornwall - LD MP in recent past. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

North Devon - LD MP 2010. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

North Dorset - Majority of MRPs and all TVs suggest LD as main challenger.

North East Hampshire - Most MRPs and all TVs suggest LD.

North Norfolk - Was a LD seat until 2019. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

Romsey - LD came close in 2010. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

South Cambridgeshire - LD came close in 2019. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

South Cotswolds - New constituency. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

South Devon - All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

St Ives - has been LD seat recently. All MRPs and TVs suggest LD.

St Neots - most MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs are main challengers

Stratford-on-Avon - most MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs are main challengers

Surrey Heath - All MRPs and TVs suggest LD as main challenger.

Sutton Cheam - has been LD seat recently. Almost all MRPs and all TVs suggest LD.

Taunton - has been LD seat recently. All MRPs and all TVs suggest LD.

Thornbury - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Tiverton - Almost all MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Torbay - Almost all MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Tunbridge Wells - Almost all MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Wells - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

West Dorset - LD have always been the main challenger, and all MRPs and TVs agree.

Wimbledon - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Winchester - LD very close in 2019. All MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Witney - All MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Woking - Near all MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Wokingham - Near all MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Yeovil - LD seat in recent past. All MRPs and all TVs suggest LDs as main challenger

Seats with a LibDem MP:

Bath - fairly safe LibDem seat

Chesham and Amersham - was a safe Tory seat but won by LD in 2021 by-election.

Frome - LD in 2023 by-election but boundary changes. Most MRPs and TVs suggest LD

Kingston and Surbiton - Ed Davey’s seat. All MRPs suggest he should win.

North Shropshire – by-election win in 2021. Needs TV for LD.

Oxford West - Layla Moran’s seat.

Richmond Park - Sarah Olney won in 2019.

St Albans - pretty safe LD seat

Tewkesbury - majority of MRPs and all TV sites suggest LDs have best chance here.

Twickenham - pretty safe LD seat

Westmorland - Tim Farron, new boundaries suggest Con would have won in 2019.

Toss-up three way seats

The following are seats where MRP polls or TV sites are almost equally divided on whether Labour or the LibDems are the main challenger. Here local knowledge matters, but if the goal of tactical voting is to replace a Conservative with a LibDem opposition, then a LibDem MP rather than a Tory MP counts double a Labour MP rather than a Tory MP.

Beaconsfield – Majority of MRPs prefer Lab, but only TV site to call suggests LD.

East Grinstead & Uckfield - New constituency. MRPs divided. One TV site for Lab

East Surrey - Normally very safe Tory seat. MRPs divided. One TV site for Lab.

Hamble Valley - New constituency. MRPs and TV sites are divided.

Newton Abbot - LD close in 2010, but vote dwindled since. MRPs and TVs equally divided.

North Cotswolds – Nearly all MRPs have Lab>LD, but two TV sites call this for LD.

Runnymede - MRPs and TV sites are divided.

Sevenoaks – Majority of MRPs have Lab>LD, TVs divided.

Added 02/07/24

South Shropshire - Most MRPs suggest Lab>LD, and only TV to call suggests Lab, but LD challenger was MP from 2001-5.

In all other seats tactical voting where necessary should be for Labour.