A New World Order

 

I don’t write about international power politics because normally I just don’t know enough about the countries and actors involved, even though it often seems as if this is also true of many of those who do talk about such things. If there was ever going to be an exception to this self-imposed rule, it would have to be now. But in reality this post is about the same battle between right wing populists and those supporting pluralist democracy that I have been writing about for some time. It is also inspired by this excellent discussion between Paul Krugman and Phillips O’Brien.

When I was a teenager I used to fantasise about a future where the world was divided into three main tyrannical blocks, with islands of social democratic resistance within Europe and the Far East. That the US was one of these blocs (Russia and China being the other two) was probably due to a combination of the Cold War and McCarthyism being recent history at the time. Luckily for all of us that future took rather a long while to emerge. I mention this only to address the first issue any discussion of a New World Order has to address. Is this all an over reaction to one individual, Donald Trump, and after he has gone we will return to the Old World Order.

Unfortunately, there are good reasons for not trusting this outcome. First, there is a strong chance that Trump will defy the US Constitution and stay as President for more than his second four year term, and that he will ensure that he is elected when he does so. He does, after all, have form on this, and he also knows that once he stops being POTUS there is a significant risk he may spend the rest of his life trying to avoid going to jail. Second, while the Republican party is now almost completely under the thumb of Trump, the MAGA movement will outlast him and may easily find another figure that can take his place. The structural factors that allowed a majority of voters to make a known fascist the President are not going away. Even if they did, it is not clear whether it is wise or possible for Europe to continue to rely on the US for its military defense.

The same question applies to Europe except in reverse. All European countries have right wing populist political parties, a few of which are already in power and some with a reasonable chance of achieving power. Most are either aligned with or sympathetic towards Trump and in some cases Russia. It is conceivable that what has happened in the US may also happen in a sufficient number of other European states, so that the ‘West’ effectively reforms as a collection of right wing populist plutocratic nations.

There is no doubt that Russia has been doing what it can to achieve this outcome for some time, and now Trump will do much the same. However, Trump’s election may also make this outcome less likely for two main reasons. The first is Ukraine, and the second is a demonstration effect that we have already seen with Brexit.

It seems likely that European countries will try to do what they can to fill the gap left by Trump’s withdrawal of support for Ukraine. Voters in Europe generally believe Russian is mainly responsible for the war, and either want Ukraine to win or achieve a peace that includes Nato membership. Exceptions tend to be in countries closer to Russia and/or with populist governments. That support may falter when taxes have to rise to pay for additional defence spending across Europe, but if politicians frame that as not just being for Ukraine in the short term but also to secure Europe’s defence in the longer term that effect may be small. The danger of Trump’s indifference or antagonism towards Nato combined with an aggressive Russia is pretty clear.

In most cases it should be higher taxes paying for additional defence spending. Deficit spending might be justified if the additional expenditure was temporary, but as I have already noted, hoping that the Old World Order quickly returns may be wishful thinking. Paying for additional defence spending by cutting public spending would be politically dumb, given the clear positive correlation between austerity and rising support for right wing populists that I note here. (Cutting foreign aid onlly works at the margin, and is counterproductive because it reduces Europe's influence overseas.)

In this respect the UK is better placed than other major European countries, for two reasons. First, dislike of Trump and support for Ukraine are particularly strong in the UK. Second, taxes are relatively low in the UK compared to France or Germany for example. Surely even those advising Starmer and Reeves will see that recent developments provide a solid case for breaking existing commitments on tax, and in particular taxes on higher incomes. In contrast Germany will find it much harder to adapt, because of its crumbling public sector infrastructure (see Adam Tooze on German railways) and its obsessive aversion to public sector borrowing, of which the debt brake is just an example.

In the short term at least heightened European solidarity towards Ukraine may make life more difficult for populist political parties that support Trump. We are already seeing that in the UK, with Farage suggesting that it is inevitable that Ukraine will join NATO in contradiction to Trump appearing to rule that out. The kind of socially conservative voters that tend to vote for right wing populist parties also tend to be patriotic, so if other political parties are smart they can use this to diminish support for these populist parties. [1]

The demonstration effect is when voters actually observe the consequences of the policies and actions of right wing populist parties. Many right wing populist parties get a lot of support because they can lie a great deal about the benefits they would bring voters. The difficulties that Brexit has caused the UK in economic and political terms seems to have had a notable impact on EU countries, with voters becoming more rather than less supportive of EU membership. Partly as a result, some right wing populist parties that previously were openly antagonistic to EU membership have since Brexit toned down their anti-EU sentiments.

At present voters in European countries are divided in their views about Trump, with again those with right wing populist governments or in Eastern Europe being more supportive than remaining Western European electorates. Antagonism against Trump, and therefore any political parties that support him or emulate his policies, may increase if Trump’s actions create difficulties for European countries (through tariffs, for example). It definitely will if his statements on wanting to take over Greenland turn into actions.

Antagonism towards Trump will also increase as Trump is increasingly seen as a chaotic and destructive leader. Like Brexit, many voters who might otherwise support a populist party may see what the reality of populist government entails and decide that is not to their liking. For all these reasons, Trump’s recent behaviour may be bad news for the right wing populists of Europe. [2]

The other silver lining is that Trump, for the moment at least, prefers to do business with the other two superpowers rather than engage in a new cold war. His primary interest is making money for himself and his plutocratic ruling elite. There is no great ideological divide between Trump and Putin as there once was between Russia and the USA. There is also a much more parochial point that Trump will in all likelihood speed Starmer’s moves to realign the UK with the EU.

The bad news may not just be limited to Ukraine, European defence and the disaster Trump will be for US governance, health and democracy. I have already noted that the last thing you want when the world is worrying about a H5N1 (bird flu) pandemic that has already started infecting US citizens is a US government that is cutting medical research, laying off workers monitoring the spread of H5N1, and which has appointed a Health secretary who has campaigned against vaccines. Equally in a country where the 2008 global Financial Crisis began, the last thing the world needs is for Trump and his appointees to start ripping up regulations put in place after the last financial crisis, or more. As Paul Krugman notes, the new Commerce secretary as well as Trump have close ties to the cryptocurrency world. It really is like putting arsonists in charge of fire prevention. And as Paul might say, Oh wait.

[1] A politically astute leader of the Conservative party would have already grabbed this opportunity to put some distance between themselves and Farage. That Badenoch has instead focused on speaking to the latest far right political jamboree says a lot.

[2] It may also discourage more mainstream right wing parties from following the UK Conservative party in embracing populism. Annette Dittert writes: “Vance may have inadvertently pushed Merz’s CDU away from the AfD – and potentially galvanised Berlin’s political centre into installing a functioning government without excessive delay.”