An interview that will never happen

Interviewer. Chancellor, in your Mansion House speech you said we must reduce government debt rapidly to prepare for an uncertain future. What uncertain future do you have in mind.

Osborne. As my colleague the Prime Minister put it just six months ago, red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy. There is Greece, the Middle East, and Ukraine.

Interviewer. But Chancellor, economists are agreed that any imminent global downturn will be more difficult to deal with if fiscal austerity is also being a drag on growth.

Osborne. I am confident that the Bank of England can deal with any immediate threats to the economy.

Interviewer. Even with interest rates already near zero?

Osborne. As the Governor has often said, he has the tools to do the job.

Interviewer. Is that why inflation is currently negative?

Osborne. As you know that has a great deal to do with the fall in oil prices. More generally I think we should celebrate the fact that prices have stopped rising so that real wages and living standards can at last increase.

Interviewer. But isn’t core inflation, that excludes oil prices, at 0.8%? The 2% inflation target is yours, Chancellor. Mark Carney has also said that reducing fiscal deficits will be a drag on growth.

Osborne. To repeat, I have complete confidence in the Governor of the Bank of England to keep the economy on track. I have not been disappointed in my choice of Governor so far, but if I need to reprimand him for any failures in the future I will not shirk from that responsibility.

Interviewer. Going back to the proposed legislation to outlaw deficits, you have also made election commitments to cut some taxes, and intend to legislate to outlaw raising others. That means that public spending will have to be cut to achieve these surpluses. Some people have suggested these laws are just a backdoor means to achieve an ideological objective of a smaller state.

Osborne. That is nonsense. I just think it is important not to place any further burden on this country’s hard working families. These families also know that you cannot go on borrowing forever.

Interviewer. Many people borrow for years to buy a house, and many successful companies continue to borrow to grow. These companies also know that it is best to borrow when interest rates are low, and interest rates on UK government debt are currently very low.

Osborne. And I will never stop trying to take credit for that. But as a prudent Chancellor, I need to ensure we have room to run deficits safely in abnormal times.

Interviewer. Is that to enable the government to undertake fiscal stimulus to support the economy during a major recession?

Osborne. No, that would not be appropriate, as I said in 2009. But as I have also said many times, it is important to allow the automatic stabilisers to operate.

Interviewer. The automatic stabilisers operate even during mild economic downturns, because low growth reduces tax revenues for example. So does your definition of abnormal simply mean when growth would be below average?

Osborne. No, I am talking about more serious events than that, but I will leave the experts at the OBR to decide precisely what is abnormal.

Interviewer. I am sure they would welcome your guidance. But if abnormal does not include mild downturns, and you want to make it a legal requirement to run surpluses during those times as well, that will require either switching the automatic stabilisers off during these mild downturns, or running pretty large surpluses when the economy is on track so as to avoid going into deficit if a negative shock of the normal kind hits.

Osborne. As I said, I think it is important to allow the automatic stabilisers to operate.

Interviewer. Chancellor, I may be being stupid here, but why is it important to allow taxes to fall automatically in a recession, but wrong to actually cut taxes further to help bring the recession to an end quickly, particularly if interest rates are stuck at zero?

Osborne. I think the experience of 2010 shows us the limits of what governments should do. It was right to let the automatic stabilisers increase the deficit following the 2009 recession, but any action by the government to increase those deficits puts our credibility at risk.

Interviewer. Now I’m a little confused. You and your colleagues said repeatedly during the recent election that the deficit in 2010 was so large due to the profligacy of the last Labour government, and not because of the recession. Austerity was because you had to clear up the mess that Labour created. It also seems that a significant proportion of the public sees it that way too. Are you now saying that is wrong?

Osborne. Look, no one is denying that 2008 saw a global financial crisis. It is to prepare for that kind of event that we need to run surpluses, perhaps as you suggest quite large surpluses when the economy is growing normally, to get debt down quickly.

Interviewer. So we need to bring debt down rapidly so that we can afford to bail out the banks again when the next financial crisis hits. I thought you had taken the measures necessary to prevent us having to rescue the banks again.

Osborne. We have done what we can, but it is important to maintain London as the leading financial centre, which means keeping banks profitable and allowing them to pay large bonuses to attract the best international talent. We do not want to impose regulations so severe that these banks and other financial companies go elsewhere. We made these points many times before 2008.

Interviewer. Thank you, Chancellor. That has been very helpful in understanding why you believe we need to legislate for budget surpluses. One last question if I may. Can you tell me what percentage of donations to the Conservative party come from the financial sector?