After the Brexit
vote, various people had fun talking about the stages of Remainer
grief, going from denial through bargaining (we can still reverse
this) to acceptance. But I think there is an analogous process for
Leavers, where they begin to regret their decision and realise that
they have made a serious mistake. For many of them we are in the
bargaining stage, where somehow the situation can be retrieved as
long as the negotiations with the EU are handled well. For them this
is what the election is about.
We have to start
with one interesting fact that should be noted more often. As
YouGov’s Brexit tracker shows,
the UK remains as divided on the issue of Brexit as it was a year
ago. As I have noted
before, this is slightly surprising, because over the last year it
has become clear to most Leavers that Brexit will involve a cut in
their standard of living, whereas before the vote most Leavers did
not expect this and furthermore reported that they did not regard a
cut in their living standards as a price worth paying to reduce
immigration. But voting Leave was about much more than economics, so
people are likely to be reluctant to admit they made a mistake that
quickly. As Mark Twain said, “It's easier to fool people than to
convince them that they have been fooled.”
Hence the stages of
grief for Leavers. They have been led to believe, by newspapers and
politicians, that as long as the negotiations are played right all
will be well: the bargaining stage of grief. Unfortunately for them
they are still living in the fantasy world created by the Brexit
media and unchallenged by the broadcast media. The fantasy is to view
the forthcoming EU negotiations as some great battle of wills. As
Stephen Fisher notes,
the negotiations are constantly framed in pugilistic terms. This is
why the Conservatives are polling at around 45%, despite all the
mistakes of the Tory campaign.
Hence, also, the
attraction of the ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ line.
Leavers need to believe that walking away is a credible threat that
will unlock the benefits of Brexit. But the reality is painfully
different. If you want an eloquent explanation of this read
Martin Wolf if you can, otherwise here is the short version. The EU
knows that No Deal would be a disaster for the UK. It would be
painful for the EU too, but not so painful as to make them offer the
UK any significant favours. Their overriding objective is to ensure
the UK will be worse off under Brexit, not as some punishment but to
ensure EU survival. Given that No Deal will be so much worse for the
UK than the EU, and as the clock is already ticking, the EU are in a
position where they can pretty well dictate terms. To the extent that
this is a game, we lost it the moment Article 50 was triggered.
The EU negotiations
are still very important, but for the UK it is more a matter of
making choices
rather than extracting concessions. There are many
kinds of Brexit. In thinking about who would be the best negotiator
for the UK, the most important question to ask is who would make the
right choices. Theresa May, by focusing so much on immigration and
the European court, has already made two very bad decisions. She
seems to be rather good
at bad decisions. Personal qualities matter to a lesser extent, but
success involves
empathy and trust, not obstinacy.
[1]
Unfortunately much
of the country is still lost to the fiction that the negotiations are
a battle of wills where the UK can emerge victorious if it is
stubborn enough. While the ‘strong and stable’ line did not
survive inspection, I suspect the ‘coalition of chaos’ mantra
will begin to work in the last week of the campaign if the polls
tighten. Hugo Dixon makes a strong case
that in reality a hung parliament would actually be a good thing in
many ways. However it is a case that is very difficult to get across
in short soundbites, and the fact that there are a multitude of
permutations will sound like chaos to many. In addition, the various
possibilities are the stuff political commentators love talking about
(see GE2015), so this apparent chaos will get plenty of airtime.
That, despite her best efforts, should see May through to a decent
majority on 8th June.
But this will not
put an end to Leavers grief, but just delay and heighten it.
Depression is likely to follow as the reality of the negotiations
become clear. In all likelihood the economy and real wages will
continue to stagnate, and the improvement in public services promised
by the Brexiteers will not materialise. Theresa May once warned
that the Conservatives had become known as the nasty party. Her
actions now are ensuring that it forever becomes known as the party that embraced a
disastrous Brexit.
[1] Her lies are
also getting worse. At least ‘I’m calling the election because I
need a strong mandate’ sounded plausible until you thought about
it, but ‘I’m not joining a debate because I’m busy preparing
for the negotiations’ wouldn’t fool a 10 year old.
